Morning Juice – US Session Prep (5th September)

Sentiment
The dollar declined while Treasury yields eased on growing expectations that a key reading of NFP will cement the case for the Fed to cut interest rates this month.
Economists expect NFP to rise by 75k in August. Traders and investors also see a similar figure, according to the so-called whisper number. According to swaps data, markets have nearly completely priced a Fed cut in September, with a follow-up cut expected by the end of the year.

UK retail sales were substantially lower than expected in 2025, following a miscalculation that raises worries about the veracity of the country’s economic data.

Docket
8:30 ET August NFP Data
US Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast: 73K | Prior: 75K | Range: 144K / 0K
US Unemployment Rate Forecast: 4.3% | Prior: 4.2% | Range: 4.4% / 4.1%
Average Earnings YoY – Forecast: 3.8% | Prior: 3.9% | Range: 3.9% / 3.6%
US Private Payrolls Forecast: 75K | Prior: 83K Range: 126K / 35K

Canadian August Jobs Data
Canadian Employment Change Forecast: 5K | Prior: -40.8K | Range: 35K / -45K
Canadian Unemployment Rate Forecast: 7% | Prior: 6.9% | Range: 7.2% / 6.9%

Speakers
12:00 ET
Trump participates in an Ambassador Credentialing Ceremony

14:00 ET
Trump signs Executive Orders

16:00 ET
Trump makes an announcement

Good Luck!