Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 8th – 12th September (US)

Monday 8th September
No Noteworthy Economic Indicators

Tuesday 9th September
No Noteworthy Economic Indicators

Wednesday 10th September
08:30 ET
US PPI for August
The Producer Price Index (PPI), published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.
The key metric is the Final Demand PPI, which covers goods, services, and construction sold for personal consumption, capital investment, government, and export.
Core PPI excludes volatile components like food, energy, and trade services to highlight underlying inflation trends.

Summary of Last Report (July)
PPI MoM: +0.9%, the largest monthly increase since June 2022, far exceeding expectations of around +0.2% and up from 0.0% in June.
PPI YoY: +3.3%, the fastest year-over-year increase in five months (June was +2.4%).
Core PPI MoM: Also +0.9%, the largest gain in over three years, after being flat in June.
Core PPI YoY accelerated to about +3.7% from June’s +2.6%.
Goods vs Services:
Goods prices rose 0.7%, with a surge in food costs (+1.4%)—driven largely by a 38.9% jump in fresh/dry vegetable prices.
Services prices increased 1.1%, led by trade margins (+2.0%) and prices for portfolio management fees (+5.8%), hotel rates, and airline fares.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A significant upside surprise in PPI—especially core PPI—may trigger market pullbacks, particularly in interest rate-sensitive sectors like tech and consumer discretionary, as it pressures inflation expectations higher.
US Dollar
Hot PPI data typically strengthens the USD, reinforcing expectations for sustained or even hawkish Fed policy.
Government Bonds
Bond yields are likely to rise (prices drop) as stronger inflationary signals push markets to anticipate delayed rate cuts or even further tightening.
Federal Reserve Policy
This inflation surge bolsters a hawkish or neutral stance, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts in the near term and potentially extending the Fed’s current policy.

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, released every Wednesday, tracks the week-over-week change in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding Strategic Petroleum Reserve).
It also includes data on refinery inputs, imports, exports, and fuel demand—all pivotal indicators for assessing oil supply and demand dynamics.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A draw larger than expected signals robust demand, potentially supporting energy sector equities—especially those tied to refiners and fuel logistics.
US Dollar
Tightening supply may support the USD, as stronger oil demand bolsters economic outlook.
Government Bonds
Stronger demand conditions, as signaled by inventory draws, could lead to higher bond yields amid expectations of sustained inflation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Persistent strength in energy demand may build upward pressure on inflation—potentially reinforcing the Fed’s more cautious or hawkish posture, and delaying talks of rate cuts.

Thursday 11th September
08:30 ET
US CPI for August
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), measures the change in prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services.
Key components include:
Headline CPI: Includes all items—food, energy, and others.
Core CPI: Excludes volatile categories like food and energy, offering a clearer view of underlying inflation trends.
The CPI is closely watched by markets and policymakers—including the Fed—for its influence on inflation expectations and monetary policy direction.

Summary of Last Report (July)
Headline CPI (m/m, seasonally adjusted): +0.2%, consistent with June’s pace.
Headline CPI (YoY): +2.7%, unchanged from June.
Core CPI (m/m): +0.3%, slightly up from June’s +0.2%.
Core CPI (YoY): +3.1%, rising from +2.9% in June.
Notable Detail: Shelter, healthcare services, recreation, and motor vehicle insurance were among the categories contributing most to inflation. Energy prices continued to decline.
Markets responded positively, with futures inching higher post-release, signaled rising confidence in a potential Fed rate cut in September.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected CPI or core inflation may boost equities, especially consumer and rate-sensitive sectors.
Higher-than-expected inflation could pressure markets, particularly in growth-sensitive and bond-proxy sectors.
US Dollar
A subdued CPI may weaken the USD, increasing rate cut expectations.
Hotter-than-expected CPI likely strengthens the dollar, as markets anticipate maintained or elevated Fed policy.
Government Bonds
Weaker inflation may drive yields lower (boosting bond prices) as easing gains probability rises.
Stronger inflation could push yields higher on expectations of prolonged monetary restraint.
Federal Reserve Policy
Core CPI rising to 3.1% reinforces the Fed’s cautious tone, potentially delaying rate cuts.
If upcoming data remains soft, the likelihood of rate cuts in late 2025—especially September—may strengthen.

08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims represent the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. They are released each Thursday by the US Department of Labor and serve as an immediate indicator of labor-market health. Continued Claims track individuals still receiving benefits and reflect the persistence of unemployment.
Lower readings typically signal labor-market resilience, while higher numbers indicate stress or weakening in employment.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If Initial Claims fall further, equities—especially consumer-sensitive sectors—may rally, signaling underlying labor strength. If they rise unexpectedly, stocks could suffer, particularly in cyclical areas.
US Dollar
A continued slide in claims may boost the USD, reinforcing economic resilience. Conversely, sustained or rising claims could weaken the dollar, implying slower growth.
Government Bonds
Lower claims generally lead to higher yields (lower bond prices) as markets price in stronger activity. Higher or sustained claims may support bond prices (yields fall), increasing dovish policy expectations.
Federal Reserve Policy
A decline in jobless claims, especially sustained, could delay or reduce expectations of a September rate cut. Conversely, persistent strength in continued claims may reinforce dovish tilt and increase the likelihood of Fed easing.

Friday 12th September
10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey & Inflation Expectations
The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers produce monthly insights into U.S. households’ outlooks on the economy. Key indicators include:
Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) – overall consumer confidence level.
Current Economic Conditions (CEC) – consumers’ evaluation of the present economy.
Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) – outlook for the next six months.
Inflation Expectations – projected price increases over the next year and over the long term.
A CSI below 80 suggests elevated concern about economic conditions. These metrics are highly influential in forecasting consumer spending and monetary policy responses.

Summary of Last Report (August Final)
Consumer Sentiment Index: 58.2, down from 61.7 in July, and below the preliminary estimate of 58.6.
Current Economic Conditions: 61.7, a decline from 68.0 in July.
Consumer Expectations Index: 55.9, down from 57.7.
1-Year Inflation Expectations: 4.8%, up from 4.5%.
Long-Term Inflation Expectations: 3.5%, up from 3.4%, revised down from 3.9% preliminary.
Consumers are growing increasingly uneasy amid rising inflation expectations and deteriorating views on current and future economic conditions.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected sentiment or rising inflation expectations could weigh on equities, particularly in consumer discretionary sectors.
A smaller-than-expected decline may support stocks, especially if markets view sentiment as stabilizing.
US Dollar
Higher inflation expectations and weaker sentiment may weaken the USD, reflecting policy easing risks.
A gentler sentiment drop could support the dollar, maintaining confidence in economic stability.
Government Bonds
Soaring inflation expectations and soft sentiment could support bonds (lower yields), as investors anticipate Fed easing.
Improved sentiment or inflation cooling could pressure yields higher.
Federal Reserve Policy
Sticky inflation expectations alongside wavering confidence reinforce a cautious-to-dovish Fed stance, heightening prospects for rate cuts later in 2025.
However, any signs of stabilization might temper immediate easing expectations.