Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 15th – 19th September (US)
Monday 15th September
No noteworthy economic indicators.
Tuesday 16th September
08:30 ET
US Retail Sales for August
The Retail Sales report, released monthly by the Census Bureau, measures the total U.S. sales at retail and food services establishments. Key metrics include:
Headline Retail Sales (nominal, seasonally adjusted): overall consumer spending.
Core Retail Sales: excludes autos and gasoline, focusing on underlying consumption.
Control Retail Sales: a stricter measure excluding volatile categories (autos, gas, building materials, restaurants) to highlight stable retail trends.
This report is a timely indicator of consumer demand and heavily influences GDP forecasts and policy expectations.
Summary of Last Report (July)
Headline Retail Sales rose 0.5% month-over-month, following an upwardly revised 0.9% gain in June.
Year-over-Year growth stood at approximately 3.9%. ([turn0search11]citeturn0search11)
Core Retail Sales (excluding autos & gasoline) advanced 0.3%, indicating modest underlying
Control Retail Sales increased 0.5%, supported by upward revisions to prior months.
Key Drivers: Robust activity in autos, furniture, and online sales, as consumers likely front-loaded purchases amid tariff concerns and promotional events like Prime Day.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected retail rebound typically boosts equities, particularly in consumer-discretionary and retail sectors. A stronger-than-expected reading could tilt markets bullish; a weaker print may weigh on sentiment.
US Dollar
If consumer spending remains resilient, the USD may strengthen, reinforcing expectations of robust economic growth. A slowdown may exert downward pressure.
Government Bonds
Stronger retail trends could lead to higher yields (lower bond prices) amid expectations of delayed Fed easing. Weaker retail strength may pull yields lower as markets anticipate monetary support.
Federal Reserve Policy
Solid retail momentum supports a neutral to hawkish Fed outlook, likely delaying rate cuts. Signs of slowing may reinforce a dovish tilt, increasing the probability of policy easing later in 2025.
09:15 ET
US Industrial Production for August
Industrial Production (IP) measures the real output of the entire industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. This monthly indicator, released by the Federal Reserve, also tracks Capacity Utilization, showing what percentage of the economy’s industrial capacity is being used. It offers valuable insight into cyclical pressures and supply-demand dynamics across key sectors.
Summary of Last Report (July)
Industrial Production (m/m): ↓0.1%, a contraction following June’s upwardly revised +0.4% gain.
Annual Growth: Up 1.4% YoY, the strongest pace since January.
Manufacturing Output: Flat (no monthly change), with durable goods rising 0.3% and nondurables offsetting.
Mining Output: ↓0.4%; still +1.9% YoY.
Utilities Output: ↓0.2%, dragged down by lower electricity generation.
Capacity Utilization (Total Industry): Fell to 77.5%, down from 77.7%, and remains 2.1 percentage points below the long-run average.
Industrial production showed modest weakness in July, with output across majority sectors either flat or slightly down. Despite this softness, the broader annual comparison remains positive, and capacity utilization stays below long-term norms—suggesting slack in industrial activity.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A downturn in industrial production may weigh on industrials and capital goods sectors. However, positive durable goods performance could provide some offset. If metrics exceed expectations, it may boost industrial equities.
US Dollar
Weak production data could moderately weaken the USD, reflecting softer growth signals; stronger-than-expected gains may support it.
Government Bonds
A decline in IP could support higher bond prices (lower yields) amid easing expectations. Conversely, renewed strength might push yields up if markets interpret it as a sign to delay policy easing.
Federal Reserve Policy
Subdued industrial activity, especially with slack in capacity utilization, reinforces a more dovish or neutral Fed stance. Persistent weakness increases the odds of broader easing measures, another signal for delayed normalization.
Wednesday 17th September
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, measures weekly changes in commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve), refinery activity, imports, exports, and product supply.
What to Expect
Oil Prices
Larger-than-expected inventory builds typically pressure oil prices lower as they signal weaker demand or oversupply.
Larger-than-expected draws tend to push oil prices higher, reflecting tighter supply conditions.
Energy Stocks
Inventory draws are generally bullish for energy equities, especially refiners, exploration & production companies, and integrated majors.
Inventory builds can weigh on energy stocks as markets anticipate weaker margins and softer demand.
14:00 ET
FOMC Rate Decision & SEP
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Rate Decision sets the target range for the federal funds rate—the primary lever of U.S. monetary policy. It’s closely watched by markets for guidance on future rate movements.
The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) is published quarterly alongside the decision. It presents FOMC participants’ forecasts for future GDP growth, inflation (PCE), unemployment, and the federal funds rate path, giving insight into the Committee’s expectations and policy outlook.
FOMC Rate Decision:
Most analysts and market indicators expect a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range from 4.25–4.50% to 4.00–4.25%, following the July “hawkish pause.” However, some projections, including from Standard Chartered, suggest a more aggressive 50 bp cut in response to the weakening labor market.
SEP Expectations:
While specific September SEP figures are forthcoming, a Reuters summary of past shifts suggests participants are gradually shifting projections toward less aggressive easing—likely reducing expected rate cuts over the medium term while maintaining elevated outlooks for inflation. This shift is due to persistent inflation pressures and economic resilience.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A 25 bp cut may provide a short-lived boost to equities, particularly growth and rate-sensitive sectors, but may also invite a “sell-the-news” reaction due to stretched valuations. JPMorgan has signaled caution here.
A 50 bp surprise cut could catalyze a stronger rally in cyclical and interest-sensitive sectors, although inflation concerns may temper enthusiasm.
US Dollar
A 25 bp cut may weaken the USD modestly, aligning with a dovish monetary shift.
A 50 bp cut would likely dampen the dollar further, boosting demand for gold and other havens.
Government Bonds
Yields likely fall under both scenarios, particularly if the market sees an aggressive cut or dovish SEP projections—boosting bonds in anticipation of prolonged accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy Outlook (SEP Influence)
A 25 bp cut with modest SEP adjustments could indicate the start of gradual easing, preserving optionality for later developments.
A more aggressive cut, accompanied by downshifts in SEP rate path assumptions, may pivot the Fed firmly into easing territory and significantly alter expectations for 2026 rate trajectory.
Thursday 18th September
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims represent the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the prior week. Continued Claims reflect individuals still receiving benefits. These metrics are pivotal for understanding short-term labor market shifts and are closely watched due to their timeliness.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A rise in claims above expectations may pressure equities, especially in consumer-driven and cyclical sectors, as it signals weakening employment conditions.
A decline or moderation in initial claims could support stock performance by reinforcing labor market resilience.
US Dollar
Higher-than-expected claims are likely to weaken the USD, reflecting lower growth and reducing expectations for Fed tightening.
A reduction in claims may prop up the dollar, reinforcing confidence in economic stability.
Friday 19th September
No noteworthy economic indicators
