Morning Juice – US Session Prep (17th September)

Sentiment
US Treasuries climbed a little while a dollar gauge consolidated after two sessions of losses as investors await the Fed’s decision. The expectation is for a 25 BPS cut, with some speculation of a larger half­ point reduction.

USD/CAD edged higher. BoC is likely to resume cutting rates amid mounting evidence US tariffs are detrimental to the economy and labor market.

GBP/USD was little changed. UK data displayed inflation holding at its highest in 1 1/2 years, in line with expectations.

USD/JPY slipped. Japan’s 20-Yr government bond auction on Wednesday drew the strongest demand since 2020, as higher yields attracted investors despite domestic political uncertainty

Docket
8:30 ET
US Housing Starts for August
Forecast: 1.365M | Prior: 1.428M | Range: 1.483M / 1.25M

US Building Permits for August
Forecast: 1.37M | Prior: 1.362M | Range: 1.445M / 1.320M

9:45 ET
BoC Rate Decision
Forecast is for 25 BPS cut to 2.5% | Prior: 2.75%

BoC Rate Statement

10:30 ET
Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: 1.766M | Prior: 3.939M | Range: 3.168M / -2.1M

14:00 ET
US Interest Rate Decision
Forecast is for 25 BPS cut to 4.25% | Prior: 4.5%

FOMC Rate Statement & SEP

Fed Median Rate Forecast
Current – Forecast: 3.875% | Prior: 3.875% | Range: 4.125% / 3.6%
Next Yr – Forecast: 3.625% | Prior: 3.375% | Range: 4.125% / 2.625%
2 Yr – Forecast: 3.125% | Prior: 3.375% | Range: 4.125% / 2.125%
3 Yr – Forecast: 3.125% | Prior: 3.125% | Range: 4.125% / 2.125%

Speakers and Events

10:30 ET
BoC Press Conference w/ Gov. Macklem

13:00 ET
ECB’s Nagel is giving a speech on the German Economy in Frankfurt

14:30 ET
FOMC Press Conference w/Powell

Good Luck!