Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 22nd – 26th September (US)
Monday 22nd September
No noteworthy economic indicators
Tuesday 23rd September
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing & Services PMI September Prelim
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys measure monthly business activity through responses from private-sector firms.
The Manufacturing PMI tracks conditions in goods-producing industries, including output, new orders, employment, and inventories.
The Services PMI measures activity in service industries, such as business activity, new business, employment, and input costs.
A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. The Final release reflects full survey data, updating the Flash estimate.
Summary of Last Report (August Final)
The August final PMI survey showed broad strength in US private-sector activity. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0, moving further into expansion and confirming strong demand for goods, aided by rising new orders and export growth. The Services PMI registered 54.5, holding steady in solid expansionary territory, though slightly softer than in July.
Survey details indicated robust demand across both sectors, with manufacturers reporting larger backlogs of work and inventory accumulation amid tariff concerns and supply chain adjustments. Input costs rose notably across goods and services, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflationary pressures. Overall, the August data suggested that US business activity remains strong, though elevated costs could test margins in the months ahead.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Stronger-than-expected PMI prints may lift equities, particularly industrials and consumer-focused stocks, reflecting ongoing growth momentum.
Weaker-than-expected results could pressure equities as investors price in softer economic activity.
US Dollar
A stronger PMI outcome may support the dollar, highlighting resilience in the US economy.
Softer data could weaken the dollar, signaling reduced growth momentum.
Government Bonds
Stronger PMIs, coupled with signs of higher input costs, may push yields higher on inflation concerns.
Weaker PMIs may see yields decline as investors anticipate a more dovish Fed.
Federal Reserve Policy
Robust activity readings may encourage the Fed to hold off on aggressive rate cuts, emphasizing caution over inflation risks.
Softer numbers would likely bolster expectations for rate cuts, aligning with a more accommodative stance.
Wednesday 24th September
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report tracks week-over-week changes in commercial US crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve), along with refinery inputs, imports, exports, and fuel product stocks. It is one of the key supply-side indicators in the oil market and strongly influences expectations for crude prices and energy sector equities.
What to Expect
Oil Price
The unanticipated build in crude inventories is likely to put downward pressure on oil prices, especially if it signals weakening demand or oversupply.
If future inventory reports show larger draws, oil prices could bounce back sharply, as tighter supply dynamics would dominate sentiment.
Energy Stocks
Energy equities (e.g. producers, refiners) may come under pressure if rising inventories persist, as margin expectations could weaken.
Conversely, if inventory draws re-emerge (especially in key products like distillates or gasoline), that could boost energy stocks by improving outlooks on demand and pricing.
Thursday 25th September
08:30 ET
US GDP QoQ Q2 3rd Estimate & Inflation Components
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period, adjusted for inflation. The inflation components include:
The price index for gross domestic purchases (goods & services bought by US residents),
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index (headline inflation), and
The Core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy to focus on underlying inflation trends.
These metrics help separate real growth from inflation-driven changes, which is crucial for assessing economic momentum and Fed policy.
Summary of Last Report (Q2 Second Estimate)
Real GDP rose 3.3% annualized in Q2 2025, up from a 0.5% contraction in Q1.
This revision upward from the Q2 advance estimate (which had real GDP at 3.0%) was driven mainly by stronger consumer spending and downward revisions to imports, partially offset by weaker exports and investment.
Inflation‐side:
The price index for gross domestic purchases (all goods & services purchased by US residents) increased 1.8% annualized in Q2, slightly down from earlier estimates.
Headline PCE price index rose 2.0% (YoY annualized) in Q2.
Core PCE (excluding food & energy) inflation also came in at 2.5%, same as previously estimated.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If upcoming GDP or inflation metrics exceed expectations (e.g. stronger real final sales, persistent core inflation), equities—especially in consumer, industrial, and growth sectors—may rally on signs of economic resilience. If inflation looks stickier than desired without matching strength in underlying demand, stocks could underperform due to fears of policy tightening or margin pressures.
US Dollar
Stronger GDP growth coupled with stable or rising core inflation could strengthen the dollar, as markets may anticipate fewer rate cuts or more aggressive policy from the Fed. If inflation comes in softer, or if demand weakens, that could put downward pressure on the USD.
Government Bonds
Higher-than-expected growth/inflation typically pushes yields higher (bond prices fall), as bond markets adjust expectations for policy. Conversely, if inflation weakens or growth appears fragile, yields may decline as investors price in potential easing.
Federal Reserve Policy
The revised stronger GDP growth in Q2 combined with inflation in the ~2.0–2.5% range reinforces a more neutral or cautious Fed stance. It suggests the Fed may delay rate cuts, especially if inflation remains at or above target. However, consistency matters: if strong growth is not supported by strong final sales or wages, or if inflation dips, the case for easing remains on the table.
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims track the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time each week. Continued Claims tracks individuals who are still receiving benefits. These metrics are timely indicators of labor market health and are closely watched for signals about economic growth, stock market performance, and Federal Reserve policy.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Higher-than-expected claims could weigh on equities, especially consumer-focused and cyclical sectors, signaling slower employment growth.
Lower-than-expected claims may support stocks, indicating continued labor market strength.
US Dollar
Rising claims may weaken the USD, as weaker labor conditions reduce expectations for near-term Fed tightening.
Falling claims could strengthen the USD, reflecting a resilient economy.
Government Bonds
Higher claims could lead to lower yields (bond prices up), as markets anticipate slower growth and potential Fed easing.
Lower claims may push yields higher (bond prices down), signaling sustained growth and inflation risks.
Federal Reserve Policy
Stronger labor market data (claims below expectations) could reduce the likelihood of near-term rate cuts.
Weaker data (claims above expectations) may increase expectations for Fed easing to support the economy.
Friday 26th September
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index for August
The PCE Price Index measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services. It is a key inflation gauge used by the Federal Reserve to assess price stability and inform monetary policy decisions. The Core PCE Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer view of underlying inflation trends.
Summary of Latest Report (July)
Headline PCE Price Index (YoY): Increased by 2.6% in July 2025, unchanged from June 2025.
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Core PCE Price Index (YoY): Rose by 2.9% in July 2025, up from 2.8% in June 2025.
Bureau of Economic Analysis
What to Expect
US Stocks
Higher-than-expected inflation could lead to increased volatility in equity markets, particularly in sectors sensitive to interest rates.
Lower-than-expected inflation may support higher stock prices, as it could reduce the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes.
US Dollar
Rising inflation may strengthen the US dollar, as investors anticipate tighter monetary policy.
Falling inflation could weaken the dollar, potentially leading to expectations of rate cuts.
Government Bonds
Higher inflation typically results in higher yields (lower bond prices), as investors demand more return to offset inflation risk.
Lower inflation may lead to lower yields, as expectations for rate hikes diminish.
Federal Reserve Policy
Persistent inflation above the Fed’s target may prompt interest rate hikes to control price levels.
Subdued inflation could lead the Fed to pause or reduce interest rates, aiming to stimulate economic activity.
10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment & Inflation Expectations September Final
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index gauges consumer confidence in the US economy by assessing attitudes toward current economic conditions and future expectations. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending and economic activity. The survey also measures inflation expectations, which reflect consumers’ anticipated rate of inflation over the next year and the next five to ten years.
Summary of Latest Report (September Prelim)
Consumer Sentiment Index: Fell to 55.4, down from 58.2 in August, marking the lowest level since May. This decline reflects growing concerns over inflation, job security, and economic conditions.
Current Economic Conditions: Decreased to 61.2, slightly down from 61.7 in August, indicating a modest decline in perceptions of the present economic situation.
Consumer Expectations: Dropped to 51.8, a significant decline from 55.9 in August, suggesting increased pessimism about the future economic outlook.
1-Year Inflation Expectations: Remained steady at 4.8%, unchanged from August, indicating that consumers anticipate inflation to persist at elevated levels in the near term.
5-Year Inflation Expectations: Increased to 3.9%, up from 3.5% in August, suggesting a growing concern about long-term inflation.
Reuters
What to Expect
US Stocks
Rising Inflation Expectations: Could lead to increased volatility in equity markets, particularly in sectors sensitive to interest rates.
Decreased Consumer Confidence: Might dampen investor sentiment, potentially leading to declines in stock prices.
US Dollar
Higher Inflation Expectations: May strengthen the US dollar as investors anticipate tighter monetary policy.
Lower Consumer Confidence: Could weaken the dollar if it leads to reduced economic activity and lower interest rates.
Government Bonds
Increased Inflation Expectations: Could push bond yields higher (prices lower) as investors demand more return to offset inflation risk.
Lower Consumer Confidence: Might lead to lower yields (higher bond prices) if it raises expectations for economic slowdown and potential rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Policy
Persistent Inflation Concerns: May prompt the Federal Reserve to consider tightening monetary policy to control inflation.
Declining Consumer Confidence: Could influence the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance to support economic growth.
