Morning Juice – US Session Prep (25th September)

Sentiment
US equities remained on the back foot after two days of tosses as traders waited for new drivers to guide the market’s next move.

Contracts on the S&P 500 retreated after concerns over stretched valuations and the pace of interest-rate cuts dragged the main gauge back from a record high.
Intel extended gains after approaching Apple for an investment.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies fell as the week neared a potentially volatile close, with $22 billion in large options expiries looming.
Treasury yields rose. Copper’s rally advanced as traders weighed the impact of supply losses from Freeport’s huge Grasberg mine.

Bullishness fueled by rate cut anticipation and the artificial intelligence boom culminated last week when the Federal Reserve signaled a faster pace of easing to support a weakening jobs market.
Since then, higher oil prices and caution from some officials have tempered the optimism amid a lack of clear catalysts.

Swaps currently imply around a 60% chance of two quarter-point US rate cuts for the rest of the year, down from 70% immediately after the Fed meeting. Policymakers penciled in two cuts in their projections.

Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge may offer clues on the path ahead, with consensus forecasts pointing to a slower pace of price growth last month.

Docket
08:30 ET
US GDP Q2 Final
QoQ – Forecast: 3.3% | Prior: 3.3% | Range: 3.7% / 3.2%
Price Index – Forecast: 2% | Prior: 2% | Range: 2.1% / 2%
Core PCE – Forecast: 3.5% | Prior: 2.5% | Range: 2.6% / 2.5%

08:30 ET
US Durable Goods August Prelim
Forecast: -0.3% | Prior: -2.8% | Range: 6.4% / -3.8%

08:30 ET
US Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial Claims – Forecast: 234k | Prior: 231k | Range: 242k / 225k
Continued Claims – Forecast: 1.933M | Prior: 1.92M | Range: 1.95M / 1.92M

08:30 ET
US BEA National Economic Accounts

10:00 ET
US Existing Home Sales for August
Forecast: 3.96M | Prior: 4.01M | Range: 4.08M / 3.83M

13:00 ET
US sells $44 bln 7-Year Notes

Speakers
08:15 ET
Fed’s Miran speaks on BTV

08:20 ET
Fed’s Goolsbee speaks in a moderated discussion at Crain’s Power Breakfast about the Fed and the economy, focusing on trends for West Michigan

09:00 ET
Fed’s Williams gives welcoming remarks at the fourth conference on the International Roles of the US Dollar.
No text or Q&A is expected.

09:00 ET
Fed’s Schmid speaks about monetary policy and the economic and banking outlook at the Mid-Sized Bank Coalition of America in Dallas.

10:00 ET
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman participates in moderated discussion at Georgetown Univ’s Psaros Center Financial Markets Quality Conference 2025
Text: TBD, Q&A: yes, with moderator and audience

11:00 ET
Trump greets Turkey’s President Erdogan

11:15 ET
Trump bilateral meeting with Turkey’s President Erdogan

13:00 ET
Fed’s Barr speaks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics on bank stress testing and potential reforms Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Text: TBD, Q&A: yes with moderator and audience.

13:40 ET
Fed’s Logan speaks at a panel organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
Q&A: Moderated Panel

15:30 ET
Fed’s Daly will sit down with Mark Packard, President and CEO, Central Bank Utah, for a conversation on her economic outlook and topics of interest in the banking community at the San Francisco Fed’s 2025 Western Bankers Forum.
No text or Q&A is expected.

15:30 ET
Trump signs Executive Orders

16:30 ET
Trump meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister

Earnings
16:15 ET
Costco Q4 2025 Earnings
Est. EPS: $5.82
Est. Rev: $86.03B

Good luck!