Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 29th September – 3rd October (US)

Monday 29th September
No noteworthy economic releases

Tuesday 30th September
09:45 ET
US Chicago PMI for September
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), also called the Chicago Business Barometer, is a monthly survey of purchasing and supply management professionals in the Chicago area. It tracks business conditions across both manufacturing and services, including new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. While regional in scope, it is closely monitored as an early indicator of national trends in US business activity.

Summary of Last Report (August 2025)
The August Chicago PMI fell sharply to 41.5 from 47.1 in July, marking the 21st consecutive month of contraction. Weakness was broad-based, with significant declines in new orders, production, and employment, while only supplier deliveries showed modest improvement. The persistent sub-50 readings underscored ongoing weakness in Midwest business activity, adding to concerns about slowing momentum in the broader economy.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Stronger-than-expected Chicago PMI could lift equities, particularly cyclical and industrial names, signaling improving regional and national activity.
Weaker-than-expected results may weigh on equities as investors price in slower growth and weaker corporate demand.
US Dollar
A stronger reading may support the dollar, suggesting resilience in US business conditions and potentially firmer inflation pressures.
A weaker outcome could drag on the dollar, reinforcing concerns about growth softness.
Government Bonds
Stronger PMI results may push yields higher as markets price in stronger growth and possible inflationary pressures.
Weaker data could pull yields lower as investors move into safe-haven Treasuries and anticipate a more dovish policy path.
Federal Reserve Policy
A stronger Chicago PMI may reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates quickly, supporting a more cautious or hawkish stance if inflation risks persist.
A weaker report would likely bolster expectations for rate cuts, aligning with a more accommodative Fed stance to cushion slowing activity.

10:00 ET
US JOLTS Job Openings for August
The JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures labor demand via job openings (vacancies), and labor market turnover via hires, quits, layoffs/discharges, and other separations. Job Openings count all positions that are open on the last business day of the month, provided there is active recruiting and the job could start within 30 days. It’s a gauge of how tight the labor market is and useful for assessing the strength of labor demand.

Summary of Last Report (July)
Job Openings fell to 7.181 million in July, down from June’s revised figure of ~7.437 million.
The Job Openings rate was ~4.3%.
Hires and separations (quits, layoffs, etc.) were largely unchanged, indicating limited labor market “churn”.
The decrease in openings was noted across several sectors, especially health care & social assistance and retail.
The reading came in slightly below many forecasts, reinforcing signs of cooling in labor demand.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If job openings drop more than expected, equities—particularly in rate-sensitive and cyclical sectors—may come under pressure as lower labor demand suggests slower growth.
If openings come in stronger than expected or fall less than forecasted, that could support stock markets, reinforcing perceptions of economic resilience.
US Dollar
A weaker-than-expected reading may weaken the USD, as it could reduce expectations for tight monetary policy.
A stronger or less weak reading may strengthen the dollar, reflecting persistent labor demand and potentially delaying rate cuts.
Government Bonds
Lower job openings tend to push bond yields down (bond prices up), as inflation and growth expectations soften.
A surprise to the upside in openings might lead to higher yields, if markets begin to anticipate more persistent inflation or less accommodation from the Fed.
Federal Reserve Policy
A continued decline in labor demand (job openings falling) will increase the likelihood that the Fed adopts a more dovish posture, possibly moving sooner toward rate cuts.
If job openings hold up well or decline only marginally, the Fed may remain cautious, maintaining higher rates for longer to guard against inflation.

10:00 ET
US CB Consumer Confidence for September
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) from The Conference Board is a monthly survey of ~5,000 US households that measures consumers’ views on current business and labor market conditions and their expectations for income, business, and labor market conditions over the next six months. It has two main sub-indices: the Present Situation Index (current conditions) and the Expectations Index (short-term outlook). It is considered an important leading indicator for consumer spending.

Summary of Last Report (August)
The overall Consumer Confidence Index slipped 1.3 points to 97.4 in August, down from a revised 98.7 in July.
The Present Situation Index declined by 1.6 points to 131.2, reflecting weaker assessments of current business and labor market conditions.
The Expectations Index fell by 1.2 points to 74.8, remaining below the threshold of 80 that often signals increased risk of economic slowdown.
Key drivers: consumers’ view of job availability has declined for eight consecutive months; optimism about future income and business conditions also faded, though slightly mitigated by somewhat improved perceptions of current business conditions. Inflation and concerns over prices, particularly food/groceries, were frequently mentioned by respondents.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If confidence comes in higher than expected (i.e. less of a drop or even slight improvement), equities—especially consumer discretionary and retail sectors—may get a boost.
If it comes in worse than expected, markets may pull back, especially in sectors sensitive to consumer demand.
US Dollar
Better-than-expected confidence may strengthen the USD, reflecting improved growth expectations.
A disappointing reading could weaken the dollar, as it would suggest softer consumer outlook and possibly slower economic activity.
Government Bonds
If consumer sentiment improves, yields may rise (prices fall), as stronger demand could fuel inflation expectations.
If confidence declines, yields could fall (prices rise), since markets may shift toward safe-haven positioning and expect more dovish policy.
Federal Reserve Policy
A stable or rising confidence measure supports arguments for a more hawkish or neutral Fed stance (or delays in rate cuts) if inflation remains a concern.
Weaker consumer confidence could strengthen the case for rate cuts or more accommodative easing, especially if other data (jobs, inflation, retail sales) also soften.

Wednesday 1st October
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for September
The ADP National Employment Report is a monthly measure of the change in non-farm private sector employment in the US, based on anonymized payroll data from over 26 million employees across more than 500,000 US businesses. It provides a high-frequency snapshot of labor market conditions and is released two days before the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Summary of Last Report (August)
Private-sector job growth: Increased by 54,000 jobs in August, down from 106,000 in July and below the forecast of 73,000.
Wage growth: Annual pay rose by 4.4%, consistent with previous months.
Sector performance:
Leisure and Hospitality: Added 16,000 jobs.
Construction: Added 16,000 jobs.
Manufacturing: Lost 7,000 jobs.
Services: Added 42,000 jobs.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Stronger-than-expected ADP data: Could boost investor confidence, especially in sectors sensitive to labor market conditions.
Weaker-than-expected ADP data: May lead to market caution, particularly in consumer-dependent sectors.
US Dollar
Higher ADP numbers: May strengthen the US dollar, as robust employment data could lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Lower ADP numbers: Could weaken the dollar, with potential expectations of more accommodative Fed policies.
Government Bonds
Strong ADP report: May push bond yields higher (prices lower), as markets anticipate potential interest rate hikes.
Weak ADP report: Could lead to lower yields (higher bond prices), as investors seek safe-haven assets.
Federal Reserve Policy
Robust employment data: May influence the Fed to consider tightening monetary policy to combat inflation.
Weak employment data: Could prompt the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance, potentially delaying or reducing rate hikes.

09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI September Final
The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly economic indicator derived from a survey of private sector companies. It measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, providing insight into economic health. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The index is based on five key indicators: new orders, output, employment, suppliers’ delivery times, and stocks of purchases.

Summary of Latest Report (September Prelim)
Headline PMI: The final S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for September 2025 was 52.0, down from 53.0 in August. This indicates continued expansion in the manufacturing sector, albeit at a slower pace.
Economic Growth Outlook: Despite the slowdown, the PMI suggests that the US economy is expanding at an annualized rate of approximately 2.2% in the third quarter of 2025.
Sector Performance: The manufacturing sector experienced weaker growth, with new order inflows slowing and export demand declining.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Stronger-than-expected PMI: Could boost investor confidence, particularly in manufacturing and industrial sectors.
Weaker-than-expected PMI: May lead to market caution, especially in sectors sensitive to manufacturing activity.
US Dollar
Higher PMI: May strengthen the US dollar as it signals economic resilience.
Lower PMI: Could weaken the dollar due to concerns over economic slowdown.
Government Bonds
Strong PMI: May lead to higher bond yields (lower bond prices) as inflation expectations rise.
Weak PMI: Could result in lower yields (higher bond prices) as investors seek safe-haven assets.
Federal Reserve Policy
Robust PMI: May influence the Fed to consider tightening monetary policy to control inflation.
Weak PMI: Could prompt the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance to support economic growth.

10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index based on a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 US industrial companies. It measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector by assessing factors like new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.

Summary of Latest Report (August)
Headline PMI: The ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2025 was 48.7, indicating a sixth consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector, though at a slower rate compared to July’s 48.0.
Sector Performance: Among the six largest manufacturing industries, two—Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products and Petroleum & Coal Products—expanded in August, compared to none in July.
Key Components:
New Orders: Improved, contributing to the slight uptick in the PMI.
Production: Returned to contraction.
Employment: Edged up slightly, indicating cautious hiring.
Inventories: Improved slightly but remained in contraction territory.
Prices: Continued to increase, but at a slower rate.
Imports: Moved further into contraction.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Stronger-than-expected PMI: Could boost investor confidence, particularly in manufacturing and industrial sectors.
Weaker-than-expected PMI: May lead to market caution, especially in sectors sensitive to manufacturing activity.
US Dollar
Higher PMI: May strengthen the US dollar as it signals economic resilience.
Lower PMI: Could weaken the dollar due to concerns over economic slowdown.
Government Bonds
Strong PMI: May lead to higher bond yields (lower bond prices) as inflation expectations rise.
Weak PMI: Could result in lower yields (higher bond prices) as investors seek safe-haven assets.
Federal Reserve Policy
Robust PMI: May influence the Fed to consider tightening monetary policy to control inflation.
Weak PMI: Could prompt the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance to support economic growth.

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, released weekly by the Energy Information Administration, tracks commercial crude oil stockpiles in the US, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It provides a key indicator of supply-demand dynamics in the oil market and can influence oil prices and energy sector equities. (eia.gov

What to Expect
Oil Prices
Stronger-than-expected inventory draws (larger than forecasted declines) may push oil prices higher, reflecting tighter supply.
Weaker-than-expected draws (smaller declines or builds) may pressure oil prices lower, indicating ample supply.
Energy Stocks
Inventory draws exceeding expectations could boost energy sector stocks, as higher oil prices support profitability.
Weaker draws or inventory builds may weigh on energy equities, reflecting softer margins and demand concerns.

Thursday 2nd October
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims: The number of new claims for unemployment benefits filed by individuals who have lost their jobs. This is a key indicator of labor market health.
Continued Jobless Claims: The number of individuals who continue to receive unemployment benefits after an initial claim. This reflects the number of people remaining unemployed and actively seeking work.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Stronger-than-expected jobless claims: Could boost investor confidence, particularly in sectors sensitive to labor market conditions.
Weaker-than-expected jobless claims: May lead to market caution, especially in sectors that are more vulnerable to economic downturns.
US Dollar
Lower jobless claims: May strengthen the US dollar, as a robust labor market can lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Higher jobless claims: Could weaken the dollar, due to potential concerns over economic slowdown and reduced consumer spending.
Government Bonds
Strong labor market data: May lead to higher bond yields (lower bond prices), as inflation expectations rise.
Weak labor market data: Could result in lower yields (higher bond prices), as investors seek safe-haven assets.
Federal Reserve Policy
Robust job market: May influence the Fed to consider tightening monetary policy to control inflation.
Weak job market: Could prompt the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance to support economic growth.

Friday 3rd October
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for September
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
Measures total paid US workers in all sectors except farming, private households, and non-profits.
Key indicator of labor demand and overall economic growth.
Data from monthly surveys of ~145,000 businesses covering ~697,000 worksites.
Unemployment Rate
Percentage of the labor force that is jobless, actively seeking work, and available to work. Indicates slack in the labor market; sourced from the Household Survey.
Average Hourly Earnings (AHE)
Measures average gross pay per hour for private nonfarm employees, including overtime and bonuses.
Key gauge of wage growth and inflationary pressure; sourced from the Establishment Survey.

Summary of Latest Report (August)
Nonfarm Payrolls
Increased by 22,000 jobs, below July’s revised 79,000 and consensus forecast of 75,000.
Average monthly job gains over the past three months slowed to 29,000, down from 122,000 in the previous 12 months.
Unemployment Rate
Rose to 4.3%, up from 4.2% in July, the highest since October 2021.
Labor force grew by 436,000, but employment rose only 288,000, contributing to the increase. Average Hourly Earnings
Monthly change: +0.3%, same as July.
Year-over-year: +3.7%, down from 3.9%, showing slight moderation in wage growth. (bls.gov

What to Expect
US Stocks
Stronger-than-expected payrolls: Likely to boost equities, particularly in consumer and cyclical sectors.
Weaker-than-expected payrolls: May pressure stocks, especially in sectors sensitive to economic growth.
US Dollar
Robust labor data: Supports the dollar via expectations of tighter Fed policy.
Soft labor data: Could weaken the dollar if growth concerns rise.
Government Bonds
Strong payrolls and wage growth: May push yields higher (bond prices down).
Weak payrolls: Could lower yields as investors seek safe havens.
Federal Reserve Policy
Strong jobs and wages: May encourage tighter monetary policy to control inflation.
Weak labor market: Could push the Fed toward a more dovish stance or delay rate hikes.

10:00 ET
US ISM Services PMI for September
The ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) PMI is a monthly survey-based index that measures the economic health of the US services sector. It is compiled by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) from responses of purchasing and supply executives. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. Key subcomponents include business activity, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

Summary of Last Report (August)
Headline PMI: 52.0, indicating expansion in the services sector.
Business Activity: 55.0, showing strong operational growth.
New Orders: 56.0, reflecting robust demand.
Employment: 46.5, indicating continued contraction in services hiring.
Supplier Deliveries: 50.3, suggesting slightly slower delivery performance.
Inventories: 53.2, showing expansion as businesses prepare for anticipated demand.
The report reflected a services sector expanding for the third consecutive month, driven by stronger new orders and business activity, despite ongoing weakness in employment.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Stronger-than-expected PMI: Likely to boost equities, especially consumer discretionary and services-oriented sectors.
Weaker-than-expected PMI: Could pressure stocks, as slower growth may signal weaker business activity.
US Dollar
Higher PMI: May strengthen the dollar due to stronger economic signals.
Lower PMI: Could weaken the dollar if the data suggests a slowdown in the services sector.
Government Bonds
Robust PMI: May push yields higher (bond prices lower) as growth and inflation expectations rise.
Weak PMI: Could result in lower yields (higher bond prices) as investors seek safety.
Federal Reserve Policy
Strong services data: May support tighter monetary policy if combined with other inflationary signals.
Weak services data: Could influence a more dovish stance, potentially delaying rate hikes.