Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 13th – 17th October (US)

NEED TO KNOW: The US Government Shutdown is still in effect, resulting in the delay of scheduled data releases.   

Monday 13th October
US Holiday: Columbus Day (exchange open)
No noteworthy economic indicators

Tuesday 14th October
No noteworthy economic indicators

Wednesday 15th October
08:30 ET
US CPI for September
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), measures the average change over time in the prices urban consumers pay for a representative “basket” of goods and services. Two key variants are:
Headline CPI: Includes all items (food, energy, etc.).
Core CPI: Excludes volatile categories like food and energy, providing a clearer signal of underlying inflation trends.

Summary of Last Report (August)
Headline CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year in August, up from 2.7% in both June and July.
Monthly change was +0.4% for all items.
Core inflation (excluding food & energy) rose 3.1% year-over-year and +0.3% month-over-month, same as July.
Food prices increased ~3.2% YoY; energy prices increased ~0.2% YoY.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If CPI comes in higher than expected (stronger headline or core), equities may see downward pressure as investors grow more concerned about inflation eroding profit margins.
If CPI is lower than expected, this could boost stocks, particularly rate-sensitive sectors like consumer discretionary and growth stocks.
US Dollar
A hotter inflation print may strengthen the USD, as markets may anticipate tighter monetary policy.
A cooler print may weaken the USD, reducing expectations for rate hikes.
Government Bonds
Higher-than-expected inflation tends to push bond yields up (prices down), as investors demand more return to offset inflation risk.
Lower-than-expected inflation could lead to lower yields (prices up) with inflation less of a concern.
Federal Reserve Policy
Strong inflation data will likely delay rate cuts or potentially lead the Fed to stay tighter for longer.
Weaker inflation or signs of disinflation may increase the likelihood of rate cuts or more dovish guidance in upcoming Fed communications.

Thursday 16th October
08:30 ET
US PPI for September
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Key variants include:
Final Demand PPI: includes goods, services, and construction that are sold for consumption, capital investment, government, and export.
Core PPI (sometimes “final demand less foods, energy, and trade services”): excludes volatile components to better capture underlying inflation trends.
PPI is a leading inflation gauge—higher producer prices can feed into consumer prices (CPI) down the line, and it influences expectations for monetary policy.

Summary of Last Report (August)
Monthly Change (Final Demand PPI): edged down by 0.1% in August (seasonally adjusted).
Monthly Change – Goods vs. Services: Goods rose slightly (~+0.1%), while services (especially trade services) declined (~−0.2%) in August.
Core PPI (less food, energy, trade services) MoM: +0.3% — the fourth consecutive monthly increase.
Year-over-Year Change (Final Demand PPI): rose 2.6% over the past 12 months, down from ~3.1% in July.
Year-over-Year Core PPI: ~2.8%, the largest 12-month advance for that measure since its peak earlier in 2025.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If PPI results are better than expected (less inflation or downward surprises), stocks—especially in sectors sensitive to inflation like consumer goods and industrials—may rally, since margin pressures ease.
If the PPI comes in with stronger inflation (higher goods or services inflation), equities may face headwinds due to concerns over cost pressures and potential tightening of monetary policy.
US Dollar
Higher inflation in PPI typically strengthens the dollar, as markets may anticipate more hawkish Fed action.
Weaker or softer PPI inflation may weaken the dollar, reflecting expectations of lower interest rates or easing inflation pressures.
Government Bonds
Softer PPI may lead to lower bond yields (bond prices up), as inflation risks are seen as receding and the Fed may feel pressure to ease.
Conversely, stronger PPI inflation could push yields higher, as investors demand compensation for inflation risk and expect the Fed to maintain or increase rates.
Federal Reserve Policy
Persistent inflation in producer prices (especially core inflation) would likely make the Fed more cautious about cutting rates, possibly delaying easing.
A surprising drop or cooling in PPI inflation might strengthen the case for rate cuts earlier, or at least for a more dovish policy communication.

08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims: The number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time in a given week. It is a forward-looking indicator of layoffs and early signs of changes in labor market momentum.
Continued Jobless Claims: The number of individuals still receiving unemployment benefits after their initial claim. This tracks persistence in unemployment and gives insight into how many people remain jobless over time.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If Initial Claims come in lower than expected, stocks—especially in sectors dependent on consumer strength—may rise, as this would suggest labor market stability.
If claims are higher than expected, there may be pressure on equity markets, particularly those sensitive to economic growth or sensitive to rate risk.
US Dollar
Lower claims may support the USD, reinforcing perceptions of economic resilience and potentially keeping rate expectations elevated.
Higher claims may weaken the USD, as markets may anticipate slower growth or more dovish policy.
Government Bonds
If claims are lower, bond yields may creep higher as markets anticipate sustained labor strength and possibly delayed rate cuts.
If claims rise, yields may fall, since investors may seek safety and expect more accommodative central bank policy.
Federal Reserve Policy
Strong (lower-than-expected) claims may reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates soon and support a more cautious stance.
Weak (higher-than-expected) claims might boost calls for easing sooner, especially if accompanied by other signs of economic softening.

12:00 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report tracks week-over-week changes in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve). The report also includes related data on gasoline and distillate stockpiles. It provides important clues about supply-demand balance in the energy market and often moves oil prices and energy stocks.

What to Expect
Oil Prices
A continued draw in crude inventories (especially after large prior draws) is likely to push oil prices higher, as tighter supply and demand reaffirmed.
If inventories instead build or draws are much smaller than expected, that may drag on crude prices, reflecting potential demand softness.
Energy Stocks
Energy sector stocks may benefit if inventory draws are larger than anticipated, as tighter supply often supports better margins and pricing power.
Weaker draws or unexpected builds could put downward pressure on energy equities, particularly among producers sensitive to input cost and inventory dynamics.

Friday 17th October
09:15 ET
US Industrial Production for September
Industrial Production (IP) measures the output of the industrial sector, which includes manufacturing, mining, and utilities, excluding farming. It gives insight into how much goods are being produced, how active factories and mines are, and how utilities are used. Capacity Utilization is typically reported alongside, showing how much of the industrial sector’s productive capacity is actually being used.

Summary of Last Report (August)
Total industrial production rose by 0.1% month-over-month, rebounding after a 0.4% contraction in July.
Manufacturing output increased by 0.2% in August, after a slight decline of 0.1% in July.
Within manufacturing, there was a 2.6% jump in production of motor vehicles and parts.
Mining output rose notably by 0.9%, recovering from prior weakness.
Utility output decreased about 2.0%, dragged down by electric utilities.
Year-over-year, total industrial production was up about 0.9%.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If production (especially manufacturing and mining) surprises to the upside, industrials and materials sectors may outperform.
If the rise is softer than expected or utility weakness persists, stock performance may be mixed, with investor focus shifting to inflation/control sectors.
US Dollar
Strong industrial numbers could lend support to the USD by indicating economic momentum.
Weaker industrial or utilities output may weigh on the dollar, especially if concerns about demand or energy costs emerge.
Government Bonds
A solid rebound in industrial production may push yields higher (prices lower), as markets anticipate stronger growth/inflation.
If the data disappoints, bond yields may fall (prices up) as investors lean toward safe-haven or expect more dovish central bank guidance.
Federal Reserve Policy
Evidence of a rebound in industrial and mining output supports the Fed holding steady or being cautious about rate cuts.
Persistent softness, particularly in utilities or other lagging sectors, could increase pressure for more accommodation or slower policy normalization.