Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 3rd – 7th November (US)
Monday 3rd November
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI October Final
The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly survey-based indicator of activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector. It is derived from responses of purchasing managers at manufacturing firms, covering new orders, output, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A reading above 50 indicates expansion compared with the prior month, while below 50 indicates contraction.
Summary of Last Report
In the most recent release, the US manufacturing PMI came in at 52.0, down from 53.0 in the previous month.
While the headline number remains in expansion territory, the survey noted that new orders growth slowed, backlogs of work declined, and firms reported mounting inventories of finished goods—suggesting softer demand ahead.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the PMI comes in above expectations, it may boost investor confidence in cyclical and industrial firms, potentially driving stock gains. Conversely, a reading below expectations could raise concerns about demand and production momentum, weighing on industrial and manufacturing-related stocks.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected PMI may strengthen the U.S. dollar, as it signals resilient economic activity and could prompt tighter policy expectations. A weaker print may exert downward pressure on the dollar as markets reassess growth prospects and monetary easing odds.
Government Bonds
A surprisingly strong PMI could push yields higher (bond prices lower) because investors may anticipate higher inflation or less need for stimulus. A softer reading may lead to lower yields as bond markets price in weaker growth and potential policy support.
Federal Reserve Policy
A robust manufacturing PMI may reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and could delay easing, especially if paired with inflation signals. In contrast, a weak PMI would increase the case for a more accommodative stance or earlier cuts if broader activity data confirm a slowdown.
10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for October
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index derived from a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives in the U.S. manufacturing sector. It covers key components such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories. A reading above 50 signifies expansion in manufacturing activity; below 50 signals contraction.
Summary of Last Report
The Manufacturing PMI registered 48.7% for August, 0.7 points higher than the July reading of 48.0%.
Although still below the neutral 50-point mark (indicating contraction), the sector improved slightly. The New Orders Index rebounded to 51.4%, up from 47.1% in July — the first expansion in new orders after six straight months of contraction.
However, other sub-indexes remained weak: Production was at 47.8% (down from 51.4%); Employment at 43.8% (marginal improvement but still deep in contraction); Backlog of Orders at 44.7%.
The Prices Index remained elevated at 63.7% (down slightly from 64.8% in July), indicating ongoing cost pressures.
Survey commentary noted that while some firms saw new orders improving, weak demand still weighed and many firms were cautious about hiring or expanding.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the PMI comes in stronger than expected (e.g., nearer to or above 50), manufacturing‐and industrial‐heavy stocks may rally as investors interpret this as improved demand and growth potential.
If the reading is weaker than expected, stocks—especially in industrials, materials and manufacturing supply chains—may come under pressure as weaker manufacturing signals broader economic softness.
US Dollar
A stronger‐than‐expected PMI may support the U.S. dollar, reflecting improved economic momentum and lower odds of aggressive monetary easing.
A disappointing PMI may weigh on the dollar if it signals weaker growth and raises expectations of looser monetary policy.
Government Bonds
A strong PMI could push yields higher (bond prices lower) as markets price in stronger growth and inflation risks.
A weak PMI may lead to lower yields as markets anticipate slower growth and a more accommodative central‐bank stance.
Federal Reserve Policy
A PMI showing improvement may reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates soon, or might encourage a more cautious approach to easing.
A softer PMI will likely raise the case for the Fed to adopt or maintain a more “dovish” posture, possibly accelerating expectations for cuts or other support.
Tuesday 4th November
08:30 ET
US Trade Balance for September
[Likely delayed due to government shutdown]
10:00 ET
US JOLTS Job Openings for September
[Likely delayed due to government shutdown]
10:00 ET
US Factory Orders for September
[Likely delayed due to government shutdown]
Wednesday 5th November
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for October
The ADP Research Institute National Employment Report tracks the monthly change in private-sector employment in the U.S., based on payroll data from about 26 million employees at over 400,000 firms. It is released about two days before the official Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Markets treat it as an early signal of labor-market trends—though its correlation with the official NFP has been inconsistent.
Summary of Last Report (September 2025)
Private-sector employment fell by 32,000 jobs in September, marking the largest drop since March 2023.
This contrasted sharply with forecasts expecting a gain of around 50,000 jobs.
The losses were concentrated among small and medium-sized businesses, while large firms (500+ employees) added 33,000 jobs.
Wage growth remained relatively stable: job-stayers saw median pay growth of ~4.5% year-over-year, while job-changers saw a slower pace (~6.6%).
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the October ADP report shows a gain higher than expected, investor sentiment may improve—particularly for consumer-oriented and cyclical companies—on stronger labour-market momentum. Conversely, if employment again falls or growth is much weaker than forecast, equities may face headwinds, especially in sectors exposed to consumer spending and employment risk.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected ADP print suggests tighter labour conditions, which may support the U.S. dollar as markets price in less near-term monetary easing. A significantly weaker print may argue for a softer USD, as signs of labour-market slowdown raise expectations of rate cuts or extended accommodation.
Government Bonds
If the ADP number comes in strong, yields may rise as bond markets anticipate higher interest-rate paths or inflation pressure. If employment weakens substantially, yields may fall as markets shift toward safety and anticipate easier policy.
Federal Reserve Policy
A robust employment figure would reduce pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut rates quickly, potentially delaying easing. A weak ADP result will bolster arguments for the Fed to consider rate cuts sooner or to remain in a more dovish stance, especially if corroborated by other weak data.
09:45 ET
US S&P Services PMI October Final
The S&P Global US Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly diffusion index based on a survey of executives in the US service-sector (business & professional services, finance, transport, retail, leisure, etc.). A reading above 50 signals expansion relative to the previous month; below 50 signals contraction.
Summary of Last Report (September 2025)
The headline Services PMI came in at 53.9, down from the 54.5 reading in August.
The slowdown reflects that although the services sector continued to expand, the pace of growth eased. New orders growth decelerated and firms reported capacity pressures, while cost inflation remained elevated.
Input-cost inflation remained high, underpinning margin pressures despite firms’ efforts to manage demand and staffing.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the Services PMI comes in stronger than expected (above forecasts), equities—particularly in consumer-services and business-services sectors—may receive a boost as stronger demand supports corporate earnings. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected reading could weigh on stocks, as it may signal weaker demand and slower economic growth.
US Dollar
A stronger services reading may strengthen the U.S. dollar, as it signals resilient domestic demand and less chance of immediate monetary easing. A weaker reading may soften the dollar, as markets may revise down expectations for growth and potentially looser policy.
Government Bonds
If the Services PMI surprises on the upside, yields may rise (bond prices down) because of higher inflation and growth expectations. If the reading disappoints, yields may fall (bond prices up) as investors shift toward safer assets and expect more accommodative policy.
Federal Reserve Policy
Stronger-than-expected services data may reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates soon, suggesting a more cautious policy stance. A weaker than expected reading would bolster the case for a more dovish stance or earlier easing.
10:00 ET
US ISM Services PMI for October
The ISM Services PMI (also called the Non-Manufacturing PMI) measures business conditions in the U.S. services sector through a diffusion index of responses from purchasing and supply executives across a wide range of service-industry firms. A reading above 50 indicates expansion month-over-month; below 50 indicates contraction. Key sub-components include business activity, new orders, employment and supplier deliveries.
Summary of Last Report
The Services PMI for September 2025 came in at 50.0, down from 52.0 in August, and below expectations (consensus around 51.8).
The drop largely reflected a sharp slowdown in new orders (50.4 vs ~56) and business activity almost stalling (49.9 vs ~55), while inventories moved back into contraction (47.8 vs ~53.2). Employment remained in contraction territory as well.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the Services PMI surprises stronger than expected, equities—especially in consumer services, business services and other service-industry sectors—may rally on signs that demand remains resilient.
If the PMI comes in weaker than expected, stocks could come under pressure, particularly companies exposed to services demand, as this may hint at broader economic softening.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected reading would tend to support the U.S. dollar, as it signals better growth and may reduce the probability of near-term policy easing.
A weaker reading could weaken the dollar, as markets may price in slower growth and increase expectations of monetary accommodation.
Government Bonds
Better-than-expected services data may lead to higher yields (bond prices down) as investors anticipate stronger inflation and growth, and less need for policy support.
Weaker data may drive yields lower (bond prices up), as markets shift toward expectations of slower growth and potentially looser policy.
Federal Reserve Policy
If the services sector remains robust, the Fed may feel less pressure to cut rates or may delay easing, emphasising caution on inflation and growth.
If weakness becomes more entrenched in services, the case for the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance or accelerate easing may strengthen.
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The weekly EIA crude oil inventories report measures the change in the volume of commercial crude oil held in U.S. storage (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve). It tracks how many barrels are being added to or removed from stocks, which provides a real-time indicator of supply/demand balance in the energy market.
What to Expect
Oil Prices
A greater-than-expected draw (i.e., inventories falling by more than forecast) generally leads to higher oil prices, as the market interprets this as stronger demand or tighter supply.
A build or smaller-than-expected draw can lead to lower oil prices, suggesting weaker demand or excess supply.
Energy Stocks
Energy equities—particularly explorers, producers and refiners—may benefit if inventories fall more than expected, because tighter supply or stronger demand can boost profitability.
If inventories build instead of falling, or drawdowns are weaker than expected, energy stocks may underperform due to concerns over margin pressure or weakening demand.
Thursday 6th November
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
[Likely delayed due to government shutdown]
Friday 7th November
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for October
Nonfarm Payrolls
Unemployment Rate
Average Earnings
[Likely delayed due to government shutdown]
10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey & Inflation Expectations October Final
The Surveys of Consumers by the University of Michigan measure US household attitudes on current economic conditions, expected business conditions, personal finances, and buying plans. Key components include:
Index of Consumer Sentiment – a composite measure of consumer moods
Current Economic Conditions Index – consumers’ views of the present economic environment
Index of Consumer Expectations – outlook for the economy over the next six to twelve months
Inflation Expectations – consumers’ median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months (“1-year ahead”) and over the next 5 years (“5-year ahead”)
Summary of Last Report
The Consumer Sentiment Index was revised down to 53.6 in October 2025, from September’s ~55.1.
The 1-year inflation expectations came in at 4.6%, down from ~4.7%.
The 5-year inflation expectations were revised up to 3.9%, from about 3.7%.
The report noted that while current personal finances inched up slightly, consumers were more pessimistic about future finances and buying conditions. Inflation, high prices, and uncertainty remained prominent concerns.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If consumer sentiment improves unexpectedly (higher than forecast), consumer-oriented and retail stocks may benefit on signs of stronger spending.
If sentiment remains weak or worsens, stocks—particularly those reliant on discretionary consumer spending—could come under pressure.
US Dollar
Elevated inflation expectations combined with weakening sentiment may lead to a divergence in views: the USD might see support if inflation concerns dominate, or weakness if growth concerns dominate.
A drop in inflation expectations alongside improving sentiment could weigh on the USD, as markets may price in slower growth and more accommodative policy.
Government Bonds
Rising long-term inflation expectations may push yields higher (bond prices lower) as investors demand more inflation compensation.
Weak consumer sentiment may increase demand for safe-haven government bonds, lowering yields (raising prices).
Federal Reserve Policy
If inflation expectations remain elevated and sentiment is weak, the Fed may face a policy dilemma: strong inflation risk but weak growth—this could lead to a cautious or delayed policy move.
If sentiment improves and inflation expectations moderate, the Fed might gain confidence to adopt a more hawkish stance if other data support it—but if growth remains weak, the Fed may stay dovish.
