Morning Juice – US Session Prep (5th November)

Sentiment
Tech-led selloff: Global equities extended losses for a second day as investors pulled back from AI-driven megacaps. The Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.3% after its steepest drop in nearly a month, with Nvidia leading declines among the “Magnificent Seven.” Super Micro Computer plunged on weak earnings, while AMD fell after a soft outlook.

Broader markets steady: The S&P 500 pared earlier losses, and small caps (Russell 2000) looked set to notch their first gain of the week. Gold rose for the first time in four sessions, and Bitcoin rebounded above $102,000. Treasuries and the dollar were little changed ahead of key data releases.

Focus on jobs data: With official statistics delayed by the government shutdown, markets are watching the ADP private payrolls report for insight into labor trends. Economists expect a mild rebound after two months of declines. A strong print could temper expectations for a December Fed rate cut, currently priced at about a 70% probability.

Docket
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change
Forecast: 40K | Prior: -32K | Range: 70K / -20K

08:30 ET
US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement

09:45 ET
US S&P Services PMI October Final
Forecast: 55.2 | Prior: 55.2 | Range: 56 / 54

10:00 ET
US ISM Services PMI for October
Services PMI – Forecast: 50.7 | Prior: 50  | Range: 52.3 / 48.5
Prices Paid – Forecast: 68 | Prior: 69.4 | Range: 68.5 / 67
Employment – Forecast: 47.6 | Prior: 47.2 | Range: 48 / 47

10:00 ET
Supreme Court Hearing on Tariff Legality

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: -0.286M | Prior: -6.848M | Range: 3M / -3M

11:00 ET
NY Fed Household Credit Report

Speakers
08:30 ET
Trump speaks at breakfast with Republican Senators

10:00 ET
ECB’s Kocher makes introductory remarks at Global Economy Lecture 2025 on “Negative Rates and the Effective Lower Bound.”

11:15 ET
BoE’s Breeden speaks at a SALT event in London.

11:30 ET
SNB’s Tschudin speaks in Zurich

13:00 ET
Trump speaks at the America Business Forum in FL.

14:10 ET
RBNZ’s Gov. Orr speaks on the Financial Stability report before the Select Committee.

Earnings
16:00 ET
Qualcomm Q4 2025 Earnings
Estimated EPS: $2.87
Estimated Revenue: $10.77B

Good luck!