Morning Juice – US Session Prep (13th November)

Sentiment
US equity futures softened this morning, with S&P 500 contracts slipping after a strong multi-day rally, as traders reassessed the path of interest rates following the official end of the record-long US government shutdown.
The pause in momentum comes as Treasury yields push higher and the dollar eases, while gold extends its advance. The reopening of the government brings an end to the data blackout, but it also sets the stage for renewed volatility: key October figures on employment and inflation won’t be released, and markets are bracing for a bumpy return of delayed economic indicators.

Rate expectations remain fluid. Money-market pricing now reflects roughly even odds of a Fed cut next month, with investors weighing cooling labor trends and softer consumer sentiment against persistent inflation concerns.
Bond-market volatility is already ticking up — the MOVE index has climbed to a one-month high after recently hitting a multi-year low — suggesting that the resumption of data flow could inject fresh uncertainty into both rates and risk assets.

Globally, sentiment was similarly cautious. European stocks pulled back from record levels, while UK growth nearly stagnated in Q3 amid worries over tax hikes in the Labour government’s forthcoming budget.
The pound briefly dipped on the weak data before stabilizing on broader dollar softness, and gilts fell in line with declines across European sovereign debt. Overall, markets are entering the US open with a more tentative tone as investors recalibrate after weeks of strong gains and shifting macro signals.

Docket
NOTE: The US CPI report is delayed despite the end of the government shutdown, and the October 2025 data is unlikely to be released as originally scheduled today.
The BLS will release a new schedule, but the report will likely be delayed by at least a week.

11:30 ET
US sells $110 bln 4-Week Bills
Prior High Yield – 3.875%
Prior Bid-to-Cover – 2.73

12:00 ET
EIA Crude Oil Inventories 
Forecast: 1.5M | Prior: 5.202M | Range: 2.7M / -2M

13:00 ET
US 30-Year Bond Auction
Prior High Yield – 4.734%
Prior Bid-to-Cover – 2.380

Speakers
08:30 ET
Fed’s Daly speaks on monetary policy implementation and balance sheet management at the Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin
Text and Q&A are expected.

10:30 ET
Fed’s Kashkari speaks at the Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute research conference

12:15 ET
Fed’s Musalem speaks in a fireside chat on the US Economy & Monetary Policy at the Evansville Regional Economic Partnership’s Economic Impact and Policy Forum
Q&A is expected with the audience and the moderator. No Text

12:20 ET
Fed’s Hammack speaks in a fireside chat at the Economic Club of Pittsburgh Omni William Penn Hotel
Q&A is expected. No Text

12:30 ET
SNB’s Tschudin speaks at a Money Market Event in Geneva

14:00 ET
Trump Signs Executive Orders

15:10 ET
RBNZ’s Gai speaks

Good Luck!