Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 24th – 28th November (US)

Monday 24th November
No noteworthy Economic Indicators

Tuesday 25th November
08:30 ET
US PPI for September
The Producer Price Index, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, including goods shipped for personal consumption, capital investment, government, and exports.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Because producer prices are early in the supply‐chain, the PPI acts as a forward indicator of input cost pressures, potential inflation pass-through to consumers, and thus is closely watched for implications on economic momentum and monetary policy.

Summary of Last Report
In August 2025 the final-demand PPI fell by -0.1% month-on-month (seasonally adjusted).
Bureau of Labor Statistics
On a year-on-year basis, the PPI rose +2.6% over the 12 months ended August 2025.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Breaking down components:
Final-demand goods rose by +0.1% m/m in August; within that, energy fell (-0.4%) and core goods (excluding food & energy) rose about +0.3%.
Final-demand services declined by -0.2% m/m in August, indicating softness in wholesale services inflation.
The weaker-than-expected monthly print (consensus had forecast around +0.3% m/m) and a lower annual rate than prior months suggest inflation pressures at the producer level may be moderating.
Key takeaway: Producer prices are showing signs of cooling in August, with goods inflation modest, services inflation softening, and the annual pace at a moderate +2½ %–3%. That suggests less upward pressure from input costs in the near term.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If PPI comes in stronger than expected (e.g., higher m/m or higher annual rate), equity markets may interpret that as rising cost pressures and potential margin squeeze, raising concerns for corporate earnings and growth, particularly for margin-sensitive sectors. That could weigh on stocks, especially consumer discretionary and industrials.
If PPI prints weaker than expected, it may bolster equity sentiment, as cost pressures ease, margins look healthier, and growth risks may recede. This would likely be positive for equities broadly.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected PPI tends to support the U.S. dollar, as it signals firmer inflation and reduces the likelihood of immediate policy easing by the Federal Reserve.
A softer print may weigh on the dollar, as markets may anticipate slower inflation, lower growth or an earlier shift toward easing.
US Government Bond Yields
If PPI surprises on the upside, yields (especially on the shorter-end) may rise, as markets price in less slack, higher inflation risk, and lesser likelihood of near-term rate cuts.
If PPI is weaker, yields may fall, with bond markets anticipating more accommodative policy or greater growth/inflation risk falling away.
Federal Reserve Policy
A strong PPI reading would reduce the case for the Fed to cut rates soon, in fact it could even increase focus on maintaining or trimming the path of easing, because cost pressures inside the economy remain elevated.
A weak PPI reading would strengthen the argument for a more dovish stance: the Fed might consider lower rates earlier, or at least communicate a higher tolerance for holding rates longer, given slower inflation pressures.

08:30 ET
US Retail Sales for September
The Retail Sales report, published monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, tracks the month-to-month change in total sales at the retail level, including goods and services (e.g., motor vehicles, food services, online retail). Because consumer spending accounts for about 70% of U.S. GDP, this indicator is a critical gauge of demand momentum, household health, and by extension potential implications for growth and inflation.

Summary of Last Report
For August 2025, U.S. retail and food service sales rose by +0.6% month-on-month (seasonally adjusted).
On a year-on-year basis, sales were up +5.0% compared to August 2024.
Under the surface:
“Core” retail sales (excluding autos, gasoline, and building materials) rose approximately +0.5% m/m, beating expectations for a ~+0.3% gain.
Strong contributors included nonstore/online retailers (+~10% y/y), clothing stores, sporting goods/hobby stores, and food & drinking places.
Some pressures noted: rising tariffs and higher prices have begun to temper volume growth, especially in certain categories.
Key takeaway: Consumer spending remains resilient for now, with a solid monthly gain and healthy annual growth. But there are emerging signs of strain, some categories are volume-weak, price effects are creeping in, and the pace may be less robust going forward.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the upcoming retail sales print comes in stronger than expected, equities, especially consumer-discretionary and retail stocks, could receive a boost since it signals robust demand, better earnings prospects, and healthier consumer behaviour.
Conversely, a weaker-than-expected print may prompt concern among equity investors: slowing growth in consumer spending could weigh on forecasts for many companies, especially those heavily reliant on strong retail momentum.
US Dollar
A better-than-expected number would tend to support the US dollar: stronger spending suggests healthier economic momentum, which could reduce expectations for near-term monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.
A disappointing result might weaken the dollar, as investors may tilt toward expectations of slower growth, greater softness in the consumer sector, and a more dovish Fed stance.
US Government Bond Yields
If retail sales come in strong, yields may rise (bond prices fall) because markets may price in firmer growth, higher inflation risks, and delayed policy cuts.
If the reading disappoints, yields may fall, reflecting increased odds of economic weakening and possibly earlier or deeper policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A robust print would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates and could support a narrative of holding rates steady for longer (or even a tightening bias if inflation picks up).
A weak print bolsters the case for a more dovish tone: the Fed may be more inclined to cut sooner, or at least signal a lower path of future rates, as consumer-demand risk becomes more pronounced.

10:00 ET
US CB Consumer Confidence for November
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a monthly survey covering roughly 5,000 U.S. households that assesses consumers’ perceptions of the current business and labour-market situation and their expectations for the next six months (income, jobs, business conditions).
It is closely watched because consumer spending accounts for about 70 % of U.S. GDP, so confidence levels can foreshadow changes in consumption and thus growth.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent release (for October 2025), the index edged down by 1.0 point to 94.6 (1985=100), from a revised 95.6 in September.
The Present Situation Index (consumers’ view of current business & job conditions) increased to 129.3, up 1.8 points.
The Expectations Index (expectations for business, income, labour market over next six months) declined to 71.5, down 2.9 points, still well below the 80 threshold often seen as signalling recession risk.
Other notes: Inflation expectations ticked up to 5.9% from 5.8%. The share expecting interest rates to rise increased to 52.8% (from 51.1%), while those expecting rates to fall dropped slightly to 26.2%.
On the regional/demographic split: Confidence fell among consumers under 35 and those earning under $75K, while it improved for those aged 35-54 and households earning over $200K.
The Conference Board
Overall, the data suggest that while consumers feel somewhat better about the current situation, their outlook remains weak, especially regarding future jobs, income and business conditions.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the upcoming reading comes in better than expected, stocks may rally (especially consumer discretionary names) because stronger confidence implies higher future spending and earnings. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected print could dampen equity sentiment, particularly for consumer cyclical companies, as it raises fears that consumption may soften.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected confidence reading could help the U.S. dollar by reinforcing belief in resilient growth and reducing the odds of imminent Fed easing. On the flip side, a weak reading would likely weigh on the dollar as markets shift toward slower growth and higher probability of policy accommodation.
US Government Bond Yields
If consumer confidence surprises on the upside, yields may rise (prices fall) as investors anticipate more robust growth and inflation pressure. A disappointing result could drive yields lower as markets increasingly price in growth slowing and potential policy easing.
Federal Reserve Policy
A resilient confidence print would support the view that the economy remains solid, giving the Federal Reserve more room to hold rates steady (or delay cuts) without jeopardising inflation/ employment objectives. By contrast, a weak reading would add to arguments for a more dovish stance, earlier rate cuts or more accommodative tone, because it signals softening consumption and underlying risks to growth.

Wednesday 26th November
08:30 ET
US Durable Goods September Prelim

08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
The two weekly measures published by the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims, provide timely insight into the U.S. labour market’s health.
Initial jobless claims measure the number of individuals filing new claims for unemployment benefits for the first time.
Continuing jobless claims (also known as insured unemployment) measure the number of people who have already filed an initial claim and continue to draw unemployment benefits in subsequent weeks.
Because they are released weekly and reflect early-stage labour market developments (layoffs, unemployment durations, labour-market slack), these readings are closely watched for signals of change in employment trends and implications for growth and inflation.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If initial and/or continuing claims come in better than expected (fewer new claims, or a sharper drop in continuing claims), equities could react positively, particularly cyclical and labour-sensitive sectors, because it signals resilience in the labour market and by extension in consumption and corporate earnings.
If the data disappoints (claims unexpectedly rise), equities may take a hit, especially growth stocks that rely on strong consumer demand; investors may become more cautious about forward earnings and growth momentum.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected reading tends to support the U.S. dollar, as it reinforces the view of resilient growth and less need for early monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.
A weaker-than-expected outcome (rising claims) could weigh on the dollar, as it may imply a slower economy and increase expectations for policy accommodation or rate cuts.
US Government Bond Yields
If jobless claims improve, there is upward pressure on yields (and downward on bond prices) since markets may anticipate tighter labour market → stronger growth → possibly higher inflation and less slack for the Fed to cut.
Conversely, a deterioration in claims may pull yields down as the bond market prices in slower growth / greater slack / higher chance of Fed easing.
Federal Reserve Policy
Better-than-expected claims data would ease pressure on the Fed to cut rates soon and might even increase the chance of staying at current policy levels longer (or even tightening if inflation risk appears).
If the numbers disappoint, they bolster the case for the Fed to consider a more dovish stance: perhaps earlier rate cuts, or at least stronger forward guidance toward accommodation.

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA’s weekly crude oil inventory report measures the net change in U.S. commercial crude oil stocks held by firms (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve).
Because crude inventories reflect the balance of supply, demand, imports and exports, the report is closely watched by energy markets: a larger-than-expected build may signal weak demand (bearish for oil prices) while a draw may signal tight supply or strong demand (bullish).
Investing.com UK

What to Expect
Energy Stocks & Oil Prices
A surprise build (as above) tends to pressure oil prices, leading potentially to a pull-back in related energy stocks (exploration & production, pipelines).
If inventories come in smaller than expected (or show a draw), it suggests stronger demand or tighter supply and can give a boost to oil prices and energy-sector equities.
Given the last report’s large build, markets may lean toward more cautious pricing of oil, favouring defensives over aggressive growth plays in energy.

Thursday 27th November
US Holiday: Thanksgiving [Exchanges Closed]
No noteworthy Economic Indicators

Friday 28th November
US Holiday: Black Friday [Exchanges open, but close early]
08:30 ET
Canadian GDP for September
The monthly real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measure for Canada, published by Statistics Canada, tracks the month-to-month change in the value of goods and services produced across the Canadian economy (adjusted for inflation and seasonally adjusted). It is a key short-term indicator of economic momentum, capturing fluctuations in production, trade, investment and consumption before quarterly data are fully compiled.

Summary of Last Report
For August 2025, Canada’s monthly GDP declined by -0.3% m/m, missing expectations of roughly flat growth.
In that month, goods-producing industries fell by about -0.6%, while services edged down -0.1%.
For September 2025, an early estimate pointed to a modest rebound of +0.1% m/m.
The decline in August was broad-based: twelve out of twenty major industry groups were down. The downturn in goods reflected weakness in manufacturing (-0.5% m/m) and oil & gas extraction (-0.7% m/m).
On the services side, a strike in air transportation and weakness in wholesale trade (-1.2% m/m) weighed on the overall figure, though retail trade rose (+0.9% m/m).
economics.td.com
Key takeaway: The Canadian economy showed signs of a mild pull-back in August, with a slowdown in both goods and services production; though the early estimate for September suggests a very modest recovery, momentum remains weak and patchy.

What to Expect
Stocks (Canada)
If the upcoming monthly GDP number comes in above expectations (e.g., a positive bounce after August), Canadian equities, particularly domestically-exposed sectors such as retail, financials and consumer discretionary, could outperform on the back of renewed growth hopes.
If the number comes in below expectations (further contraction or flat growth), there may be increased caution among equity investors: domestic growth concerns could weigh on earnings expectations and favour more defensive sectors.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
A stronger-than-expected reading would likely support the Canadian dollar, as it signals rising growth prospects and fewer near-term concerns for the economy (which in turn may reduce rate-cut expectations at the Bank of Canada).
A weaker-than-expected reading would likely weigh on the CAD, as slower growth raises the risk of central-bank accommodation and reduces the currency’s appeal in risk-on settings.
Canadian Government Bond Yields
If GDP surprises on the upside, yields may rise (bond prices fall) as investors price in stronger growth, higher potential inflation and a lower probability of rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.
If GDP disappoints, yields may fall, reflecting decelerating growth, increased slack and greater odds of policy easing or an extended pause in rate increases.
Bank of Canada Policy
A strong monthly GDP print would reduce the urgency for the Bank of Canada to cut rates soon, and may increase confidence in keeping policy on hold (or even leaning less dovish) if inflation remains under control.
A disappointing print strengthens the case for a more dovish stance: the BoC might need to emphasise accommodative guidance, delay tightening, or even move toward cuts if growth risks accumulate.