Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 1st – 5th December (US)

Monday 1st December
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI November Final
The PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) for manufacturing, compiled by S&P Global, surveys about 600 U.S. manufacturing firms on new orders, output, employment, supplier delivery times and inventories. A reading above 50 signifies expansion compared with the previous month, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The index is closely watched because manufacturing activity is sensitive to economic cycles, business-investment decisions and global demand.

Summary of Last Report
For November 2025, the S&P Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.9, down from 52.5 in October.
The reading remains above the 50-threshold, so manufacturing continues to expand, but the pace of growth has slowed.
Key details: growth in production weakened, new order growth softened compared to prior months, but employment rose at the fastest rate since August.
Trading Economics
The slower pace suggests that although conditions remain positive, forward momentum is less robust and some firms are facing weaker demand headwinds.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected PMI (say materially above 52.5) would likely boost the equity market, particularly industrials and manufacturing-exposed stocks, as it signals sustained demand and cyclical strength.
On the flip side, a weaker-than-expected print would raise concerns about growth slowing in the goods-producing sector, potentially dragging cyclical stocks and shifting sentiment toward defensives.
US Dollar
If manufacturing surprises on the upside, the U.S. dollar may strengthen as markets interpret it as a sign of resilient growth and reduced near-term risk of policy easing.
If the print disappoints, the dollar may weaken as focus shifts to growth risks and the possibility of looser monetary policy.
US Government Bond Yields
A strong print could push yields higher (bond prices lower), reflecting expectations of stronger growth and possibly higher inflation, making investors demand higher yields.
A weak print would likely lead yields lower, as investors might anticipate slower growth, increased slack and a more dovish policy path.
Federal Reserve Policy
A robust manufacturing PMI supports the view that the economy remains in better shape — this reduces pressure on the Fed to cut rates quickly and may encourage a “wait and see” approach.
A weak reading strengthens the case for the Fed to maintain or shift toward a more dovish tone, given greater risk of manufacturing weakening and spill-over to broader economic activity.

10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November
The ISM Manufacturing PMI, published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), is a diffusion-index-based survey of purchasing managers in the U.S. manufacturing sector. It covers components such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories. Readings above 50 indicate expansion of manufacturing activity; readings below 50 indicate contraction.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent release (October 2025), the ISM Manufacturing PMI stood at 48.7, down from 49.1 in September, and below consensus expectations of about 49.5.
Key details:
The reading below 50 signals contraction in the manufacturing sector, meaning output and orders are broadly falling rather than growing.
Sub-components showed softness: new orders were ~49.4, production ~48.2, and employment ~46.0, suggesting weakening demand and output.
The report suggests ongoing headwinds in manufacturing—from softer global demand to supply chain/cost issues.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the next PMI comes in stronger than expected (above consensus, moving closer to or above 50), industrial and cyclical stocks (e.g., manufacturing, materials, capital goods) may rally, as it signals improving business conditions.
If it comes in weaker than expected, equities—especially those exposed to manufacturing and capital investment—may underperform, as the data would raise concerns about growth slowdown and weaker corporate earnings in goods-producing sectors.
US Dollar
A stronger reading could boost the U.S. dollar: higher PMI implies better growth prospects and a lower chance of near-term monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.
A weaker reading may weaken the dollar, as it increases the odds of slower growth, potentially dampening inflation and encouraging a more accommodative policy stance.
US Government Bond Yields
A stronger-than-expected PMI may push bond yields higher (prices lower): stronger manufacturing often leads markets to anticipate higher growth and inflation, which may prompt more restrictive monetary policy.
A weaker-than-expected figure may suppress yields: slower manufacturing signals growth weakness, possibly lowering inflation and increasing expectations for rate cuts or prolonged accommodative policy.
Federal Reserve Policy
If manufacturing unexpectedly strengthens, the Fed may feel less pressure to cut rates or may delay easing, viewing the economy as more resilient.
Conversely, if the manufacturing PMI disappoints, it bolsters the case for a more dovish Fed: slower sector growth could lead to greater caution on the policy front, possibly earlier or deeper rate cuts or a more supportive policy stance.

Tuesday 2nd December 
No noteworthy economic indicators

Wednesday 3rd December
09:45 ET
US S&P Services PMI November Final
The Services PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) for the U.S., compiled by S&P Global, surveys roughly 400 service-sector firms — covering industries such as transportation, information & communication, finance, insurance, real-estate and business services. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of activity relative to the previous month; below 50 indicates contraction. Because the services sector accounts for around 70-80 % of U.S. GDP, this index is especially significant for gauging the health of the economy and the implications for inflation and monetary policy.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent release for October 2025, the S&P Global U.S. Services PMI rose to 54.8 from 54.2 in September.
Key highlights:
The increase signals a solid and accelerating pace of growth in the services sector.
New business volumes rose at the fastest pace of the year, indicating robust underlying demand.
Input-cost inflation remained elevated, driven in part by tariffs and higher labour/operating costs; however, firms reported that their ability to raise selling prices remained somewhat restrained due to competition.
Despite the strong headline, firms reported only modest employment growth (some challenges in replacing leavers) and business confidence fell to a six-month low, suggesting caution about the outlook.
Takeaway: The services sector continues to expand at a healthy clip, supporting the broader economy, but some signalled concerns around labour, cost pressures and future optimism.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the upcoming services PMI comes in stronger than expected, it could boost equity markets — particularly consumer-services, business-services and other domestically-oriented service firms — as it implies robust demand, earnings strength and economic momentum.
Conversely, if the reading disappoints (lower than expected), it may prompt caution among equity investors: weaker service-sector growth could signal a drag on overall growth and corporate profitability, especially for service-intensive stocks.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected PMI reading would likely support the U.S. dollar, as it strengthens the growth narrative and reduces the probability of near-term monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.
On the other hand, a weaker print may weigh on the dollar, as it raises the odds of slower growth, increased economic slack and a more dovish policy stance.
US Government Bond Yields
If the services PMI surprises to the upside, bond yields could rise (prices fall) — stronger services activity implies tighter labour/cost conditions and less slack, increasing inflation risk and reducing expectations of policy easing.
If the PMI disappoints, yields may fall, as markets shift toward slower growth and greater likelihood of accommodative policy or delayed tightening.
Federal Reserve Policy
A strong services-PMI reading bolsters the case for the Fed to hold rates steady or even consider a less accommodative stance, given that service-sector momentum could translate into broader inflationary pressures.
A weak reading, conversely, strengthens the argument for a more dovish stance — the Fed may signal that rate cuts are more likely or that it will maintain a looser posture for longer if services growth falters.

10:00 ET
US ISM Services PMI for November
The ISM Services PMI, published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management, is a diffusion-index based survey of purchasing and supply executives in the U.S. services sector (covering industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, real estate, business & professional services). A reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 signals contraction. Given that the services sector accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. GDP, it is a key barometer of economic momentum and inflation/monetary policy implications.

Summary of Last Report
In September 2025, the ISM Services PMI registered 50.0 — essentially flat and right at the threshold of expansion.
iThe Business Activity Index fell to 49.9, moving into contraction territory.
The New Orders Index held at 50.4, showing only very mild growth.
The Employment Index was 47.2, indicating ongoing contraction in services employment.
The Prices Index was still elevated at 69.4, reflecting strong input/operating-cost pressures.
Taken together: the services sector appears to have stalled in recent data — very modest growth at best, employment remaining weak, but cost pressures remaining high.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the upcoming index surprises on the upside (e.g., significantly above 50), this would likely boost equities — especially service-related and consumer-services companies — as it signals stronger demand, better earnings prospects, and underlying economic resilience.
If the print disappoints (e.g., well below consensus, indicating contraction), equity markets may become cautious: corporate earnings in service industries could come under pressure, which might weigh on sentiment broadly.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected PMI would tend to support the U.S. dollar, as it implies the services economy is resilient, reducing expectations of imminent monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.
A weaker-than-expected reading could weigh on the dollar, as it signals slower growth and may increase bets on policy accommodation or rate cuts.
US Government Bond Yields
A surprise upside could push bond yields higher (prices falling) as stronger services growth increases the probability of higher inflation or tighter monetary policy.
A downside surprise may lead yields to fall, as markets anticipate slower growth, more slack in the economy and a greater likelihood of the Fed easing or delaying tightening.
Federal Reserve Policy
A robust services PMI would strengthen the argument for keeping monetary policy restrictive (or at least not easing) since the services economy remains healthy and inflation risks may persist.
A weak reading would bolster the case for a more dovish stance: the Fed may signal greater tolerance for holding rates steady or cutting earlier if growth and employment are weakening, particularly in the services sector.

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA’s weekly crude-oil inventory report measures the change in commercial crude oil stocks held by U.S. firms (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve).
Because the data reflect the balance of supply (production + imports − exports) and immediate demand (refinery runs, product drawdowns), this release is a key short-term indicator for oil-market sentiment and pricing.

What to Expect
Energy Stocks & Oil Prices
The sharper-than-expected draw is bullish for oil prices: it signals tighter supply or stronger demand, which tends to lift the value of crude and related equity plays (E&P companies, midstream, refiners).
If the next report instead shows a surprise build, that could be bearish for oil and energy stocks—raising concerns of oversupply or weakening consumption/investment demand in the energy complex.
Broader Implications (Secondary Effects)
If repeated large draws persist, it could support inflation expectations (via higher fuel/energy costs) and thus become a factor for inflation-linked assets and perhaps even central-bank watchers.
In contrast, repeated builds may dampen inflation risk, lighten pressure on commodity-linked sectors, and tilt sentiment modestly toward slower growth/demand in the energy sector.
Outlook & Market Positioning
Markets will likely be sensitive to surprises compared with consensus: the large draw versus expected small draw may prompt positioning for tighter balances.
Key data to watch going forward will include refinery runs, net imports/exports, product (gasoline/distillate) inventory movements and how these interplay with crude changes.
For traders in energy: a sustained pattern of draws could lead to bullish momentum; while an unexpected turn toward builds may trigger rapid repositioning.

Thursday 4th December
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
The weekly jobless claims data consist of two key metrics:
Initial jobless claims: the number of individuals filing new claims for unemployment benefits for the first time during the week.
Continued jobless claims (or insured unemployment): the number of individuals who continue to receive unemployment benefits after their initial claim, still actively drawing benefits.
These indicators are timely barometers of labour market health — initial claims can signal changes in lay-off activity, while continued claims reflect how long unemployed workers remain out of work and potential labour-market slack.

Summary of Last Report
For the week ending 15 November 2025, initial jobless claims fell to 220,000, down by 8,000 from the previous week.
For the week ending 8 November 2025, continued jobless claims reached 1,974,000, up from 1,946,000 in the prior week — the highest level since 2021.
Interpretation: The low level of initial claims suggests that layoffs remain modest, which is positive. However, the rise in continued claims signals that while fewer people may be newly laid off, those already unemployed may be taking longer to re-enter employment — a softening nuance in labour-market dynamics.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If initial claims come in much lower than expected (say, well below 220k), it would likely support equities — signalling stronger labour market resilience and supporting growth expectations.
If initial claims rise sharply or continued claims climb further, it could spook markets by increasing concerns about labour-market slack and the risk of growth deceleration — especially impacting consumer-sensitive and cyclical stocks.
A combination of low initial claims but high continued claims is a mixed signal — markets may treat it cautiously, favouring quality/growth stocks over purely cyclical plays.
US Dollar
Strong labour market signals (low initial claims + stable/declining continued claims) tend to support the U.S. dollar, as they imply firmer growth, less labour slack, and reduced odds of imminent monetary easing by Federal Reserve.
Weaker than expected labour-market readings (spike in initial claims or continued claims rising significantly) would likely weigh on the dollar, as they could raise expectations of policy accommodation and slower economic momentum.
US Government Bond Yields
If claims come in stronger than expected (labour market remains tight), yields may rise (bond prices fall) — markets would price in firmer growth, higher inflation risk, and a lower chance of rate cuts.
If the readings disappoint (claims up), yields may fall, reflecting increased odds of slower growth, more labour-market slack and potential for the Fed to ease or hold policy longer.
Federal Reserve Policy
A strong claims report (very low initial claims, stable or falling continued claims) would reinforce a view that the labour market is relatively tight — reducing pressure on the Fed to cut rates soon and supporting a “hold” or even slightly hawkish tone.
A weak report (initial claims rising or continued claims climbing higher) would strengthen the argument for a more dovish stance: increased likelihood of rate cuts, more forward guidance toward accommodation, or at least a more cautious policy bias.

08:30 ET
US Trade Balance for October
The trade balance (or goods & services trade deficit) for the United States is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). It measures the difference between the value of what the U.S. exports to the rest of the world and what it imports from the rest of the world. A negative figure (deficit) means that imports exceed exports. This indicator is important because it affects GDP (via net exports), the exchange rate, global competitiveness, and can signal changes in demand for U.S. goods and services abroad and foreign demand for the U.S. dollar.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent release (August 2025), the U.S. goods & services trade deficit narrowed to approximately US $59.6 billion, down from a deficit of US $78.2 billion in July.
The goods-only trade deficit fell to about US $85.6 billion in August, down from about US $102.8 billion in July.
Meanwhile, the services surplus increased slightly to about US $26.1 billion in August.
The narrowing of the deficit was driven by a combination of declining imports and a modest increase in exports in August.
Historical context: The U.S. has run consistent trade deficits in recent decades, especially in goods.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A smaller-than-expected deficit (i.e., a narrowing trade gap) can be positive for U.S. equities, particularly export-sensitive firms and sectors tied to global demand — it signals stronger foreign demand for U.S. goods or weaker imports (which may reflect domestic demand moderation).
Conversely, a widening deficit or surprise swing in the wrong direction could raise concerns about weaker global demand for U.S. output or overly strong domestic import activity (potential excess demand) — which might weigh on certain sectors and dampen optimism around U.S. growth.
US Dollar
A narrowing trade deficit tends to be supportive for the U.S. dollar: stronger net exports (or improved export/ import balance) bolster demand for the USD and strengthen the currency’s external position.
A widening deficit may weigh on the dollar — increased import dominance or weaker exports reduce net demand for U.S. currency from abroad and may dampen confidence in the external side of the U.S. economy.
US Government Bond Yields
If the trade data surprise positively (deficit shrinks significantly), yields may rise (bond prices fall) because stronger external demand supports growth/inflation expectations and reduces downside risk to the economy.
If the trade balance worsens, yields may fall, reflecting increased concerns about growth, greater economic slack and potentially lighter inflation pressure.
Federal Reserve Policy
A stronger trade-balance result (i.e., improved exports or weaker imports) supports a narrative of better-than-expected growth and may reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy soon — it strengthens the case for holding or even tightening if inflation risks are present.
A disappointing result (widening deficit, weak exports) strengthens the case for a more dovish policy stance: slower external demand may feed into lower growth, giving the Fed more reason to consider accommodation or delay rate hikes.

Friday 5th December
08:30 ET
Canadian Employment Change for November
The Employment Change indicator, published monthly by Statistics Canada, measures the net change in the number of employed persons in Canada—this includes those working for pay or profit or doing unpaid family work and is seasonally adjusted. The metric provides a timely snapshot of labour-market health, capturing whether job creation is keeping pace with population growth or slowing, and helps inform growth, inflation and policy expectations.

Summary of Last Report
In October 2025, employment in Canada increased by approximately +66.6 thousand jobs.
The headline change was better than several recent months in which the labour market had shown some softness.
A key nuance: Full-time employment actually decreased by about -18.5 thousand in that month.
The unemployment rate ticked down (to about 6.9%) simultaneously, but wage growth has cooled and labour-force participation remains under pressure.
Overall, while job growth returned, the quality of jobs (full-time vs part-time), as well as underlying structural dynamics, suggest the labour market is still losing momentum rather than being in strong expansion mode.

What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
If the upcoming employment change comes in stronger than expected, it would boost sentiment for Canadian equities—especially consumer-facing and domestic-oriented sectors—because stronger hiring tends to lead to higher consumer spending and earnings.
If the print comes in weaker than expected, it may dampen investor enthusiasm: domestic demand concerns could weigh on companies, especially those reliant on labour intensity or consumer confidence.
Canadian Dollar
A surprise upside in employment would likely support the CAD, as a stronger labour market increases the probability of tighter or less accommodative policy from the Bank of Canada and improves economic fundamentals.
A weak outcome may weigh on the CAD, as markets may price in slower growth, elevated labour-market slack and increased odds of the BoC moving toward a more dovish stance.
Canadian Government Bond Yields
Better-than-expected employment growth could push yields higher (bond prices lower), reflecting expectations for stronger growth, tighter labour markets and potentially elevated inflation (which may reduce the chance of cuts).
Conversely, weaker employment data may lead yields to fall, as investors anticipate slower growth, increasing slack in the labour market and higher odds of policy easing or longer holding of rates.
Bank of Canada Policy
A robust employment print would strengthen the case for the Bank of Canada to hold rates steady or even adopt a less-dovish outlook, since the labour market is showing resilience and inflation risks may remain.
A disappointing labour-market reading would bolster the argument for a more dovish policy stance: the BoC may face stronger pressure to consider cuts or maintain a more accommodative bias if employment growth falters and slack rises.

10:00 ET
US PCE Price Index & Consumer Spending for September
The PCE Price Index, compiled monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. households. It is the inflation gauge favoured by the Federal Reserve because it covers a broad consumption base and adjusts for shifts in consumer behaviour.
The accompanying consumer-spending metric — Personal Consumption Expenditures (or simply “consumer spending”) — measures the value of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents. It serves as a key driver of U.S. economic activity, given that household consumption accounts for approximately two-thirds of GDP.

Summary of Last Report
PCE Price Index:
The headline PCE Price Index rose by +2.7% year-on-year in August 2025, up from +2.6% in July.
On a monthly basis, prices increased approximately +0.3% in August.
The Core PCE Price Index (excluding food and energy) rose by about +2.9% year-on-year in August.
Consumer Spending:
For August 2025, nominal personal consumption spending rose by ~+0.6% month-on-month, stronger than the previous month’s +0.5%.
Within that, spending on nondurable goods increased by about +0.7% m/m, while services spending rose more modestly (~+0.2% m/m).
While consumer spending remains resilient, the slower services growth and inflation above 2% suggest some medium-term caution.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If consumer spending and/or inflation surprise on the upside (i.e., stronger spending + higher inflation), equities — particularly consumer discretionary and retail stocks — could rally, as robust demand supports corporate earnings.
However, if inflation is seen as rising too fast (especially if margins are squeezed or cost increases accelerate) this could dampen equity sentiment, especially for margin-sensitive firms.
A weaker reading (slower spending or lower inflation) might temper equity performance, as it suggests softer demand and potential growth headwinds.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected PCE print or spending result tends to support the U.S. dollar, since it signals resilient growth and reduced likelihood of near-term monetary easing by the Fed.
A weaker print may weigh on the dollar, as markets lean toward slower growth, lower inflation and increased odds of accommodative policy.
US Government Bond Yields
Strong spending and/or higher inflation could push yields higher (bond prices lower) as markets anticipate firmer growth and possibly tighter policy or delayed cuts.
Conversely, weaker spending or inflation could lead to lower yields, signalling slower growth and greater probability of rate cuts or extended accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A robust inflation reading (especially core PCE) combined with healthy consumer spending would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates and might even raise the likelihood of keeping rates higher for longer.
A softer reading would strengthen the case for a more dovish stance: the Fed may signal earlier cuts or a more accommodative path if consumption falters and inflation remains below target.

10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey and Inflation Expectations December Prelim
The University of Michigan’s monthly Survey of Consumers gauges U.S. households’ views about their personal finances, business/ economic conditions, buying-conditions (durables etc), as well as their expectations for the next 1 year and beyond. The headline index is the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS), with two sub-indices: Current Economic Conditions and Index of Consumer Expectations. Importantly for inflation/ policy, the survey also asks about year-ahead inflation expectations (what consumers expect prices to do in the next 12 months) and long-run inflation expectations.

Summary of Last Report
For November 2025, the Index of Consumer Sentiment came in at 51.0, down from 53.6 in October.
Within that:,Current Economic Conditions index fell to 51.1 (from 58.6 in October) — a drop of roughly -12.8%.
Index of Consumer Expectations rose modestly to 51.0 (up from 50.3 in October) — showing some slight improvement in outlook.
Inflation expectations:
Year-ahead (12-month) inflation expectations fell from 4.6% to 4.5% in November.
Long-run inflation expectations (5-10 years) softened from 3.9% to 3.4% in November.
sca.isr.umich.edu
Key commentary: Despite the slight drop in year-ahead inflation expectations, consumers continue to feel their personal finances and buying conditions are under pressure (“consumers remain frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes”).
Takeaway: Consumer sentiment remains very weak (the 51.0 reading is considerably below even pre-pandemic norms). The risk perception around current conditions (personal finances + buying) is significantly worse than the outlook portion. Inflation expectations are moderately downward but still elevated (4.5% near-term) — meaning inflation remains a concern in the consumer mindset.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected sentiment reading (e.g., a meaningful rise above ~51) would likely boost equities, especially consumer-facing sectors (retail, discretionary) on the view that households are more confident and spending may pick up.
A weaker-than-expected reading (further drop) could dampen investor sentiment, especially toward consumer discretionary and cyclicals, as it indicates households are more cautious and spending may slow.
US Dollar
If sentiment improves notably (and inflation expectations drop significantly), it may support the U.S. dollar — as better household confidence could signal resilient growth, which would reduce near-term monetary easing expectations.
If sentiment deteriorates or inflation expectations spike, the dollar may weaken, since slower growth and higher inflation risk could push markets toward more accommodative policy or weaker economic outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Improved sentiment + elevated inflation expectations could push yields higher (bond prices lower) — markets anticipating stronger growth and possible inflation risk.
Conversely, weaker sentiment or a sudden jump in inflation expectations without growth might lead to yields falling, as markets weigh growth downside or expect the Fed to stay more dovish.
Federal Reserve Policy
If consumers become more confident and inflation expectations stay elevated, the Federal Reserve may feel less urgency to ease and might signal staying the course — or at least not cutting prematurely.
If sentiment collapses and inflation expectations drift upward (especially if stemming from cost-side pressures rather than demand), the Fed may be pushed toward a more guarded or even hawkish stance (due to inflation risk).
If both sentiment and inflation expectations drop, the Fed’s path toward accommodation may become more firmly in focus.