China NVIDIA Chips Access and RBA Decision – Europe Market Wrap

Financial markets paused for direction as stocks fluctuated and Treasury yields hovered near two-month highs, with traders reluctant to take fresh positions ahead of the Fed’s final rate call of 2025.

S&P 500 futures were flat after the index’s four-day climb came to a stop. A steady selloff in Treasuries has made investors more cautious, particularly as expectations for the pace of next year’s easing continue to narrow.

Market pricing now assumes two cuts in 2026, down from the more aggressive bets placed earlier this month when weak labor indicators prompted speculation of a faster response from the Fed. The 10-year yield eased to 4.15%.

In premarket action, Nvidia pulled back after reports that Chinese authorities may limit access to its H200 chip, tempering earlier gains. The development followed Trump’s decision to allow renewed shipments of the processor to China.

For traders, the Fed’s guidance for 2026 is the key swing factor. Tuesday’s JOLTS report — expected to show further cooling in job openings — will be the last major dataset before the decision.

Pressure on global bonds has intensified as central banks signal they are nearing the end of their easing phases. Australia’s Michele Bullock declared the cycle over, while the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel suggested the next step could be up, not down. The Bank of Japan is also widely expected to deliver another rate increase next week.

Even with the Fed still poised to cut, investors must contend with a more divided committee, sparse economic data after the shutdown, and uncertainty about the Fed’s future leadership once Jerome Powell’s term ends in May.