Morning Juice – US Session Prep (9th December)

Sentiment
Financial markets were subdued as stocks fluctuated and Treasury yields hovered near two-month highs, with traders avoiding fresh positions ahead of the Fed’s final rate decision of 2025. S&P 500 futures were flat after a four-day climb stalled, and a steady selloff in Treasuries has made investors more cautious as expectations for next year’s easing narrow.
Market pricing now assumes two cuts in 2026, down from more aggressive bets earlier in the month. Nvidia slipped in premarket trading after reports that Chinese authorities may limit access to its H200 chip, following Trump’s decision to allow renewed shipments to China.
Traders view the Fed’s guidance for 2026 as the key swing factor, with Tuesday’s JOLTS report — expected to show further cooling in job openings — the last major dataset before the decision.

Global bond pressure intensified as central banks signaled that easing cycles may be ending. Australia’s Michele Bullock declared the cycle over, ECB’s Isabel Schnabel suggested the next move could be up rather than down, and the Bank of Japan is widely expected to deliver another rate hike next week.
Even though the Fed is still poised to cut, investors face a more divided committee, sparse economic data following the government shutdown, and uncertainty over the Fed’s future leadership once Jerome Powell’s term expires in May.

Docket
10:00 ET
US JOLTS Job Openings for October
Forecast: 7.115M | Range: 7.55M / 6.9M

13:00 ET
US sells $39 bln 10-Year Notes
Prior High Yield: 4.074%
Prior Bid-to-Cover: 2.43

Speakers
09:15 ET
BoE’s Members speak at the Treasury Committee, including the following attendees: BoE’s Lombardelli, BoE’s Ramsden, BoE’s Mann and BoE’s Dhingra

14:10 ET
RBNZ Gov. Bremen hosts on-record media Q&A session

15:15 ET
Trump attends the Vice President’s Christmas Reception

Good Luck!