Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 22nd – 26th December (US)
Monday 22nd December
No noteworthy economic indicators
Tuesday 23rd December
08:30 ET
US GDP QoQ Q3 2nd Estimate
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), measures the total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. economy. The quarter-on-quarter (annualised) GDP figure is the broadest indicator of economic growth.
The second estimate incorporates more complete data on trade, inventories, consumer spending, and business investment than the advance release, and can meaningfully shift market expectations if revisions are material.
Summary of Last Report
In the advance estimate for Q3, US GDP growth showed a solid expansion, supported primarily by resilient consumer spending and steady government outlays. Business investment was mixed, while net exports and inventories provided a smaller contribution to growth. Inflation-adjusted consumption remained the key driver, reinforcing the view that the U.S. economy maintained momentum despite tighter financial conditions.
Overall, the advance data pointed to continued economic resilience, though signs of moderation were evident beneath the headline.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the second estimate revises growth higher, equities may react positively — particularly cyclical and growth-sensitive sectors — as stronger activity supports earnings expectations.
A downward revision could weigh on stocks, especially if driven by weaker consumer spending or investment, raising concerns about slowing momentum.
US Dollar
An upward revision to GDP would likely support the dollar, reinforcing confidence in U.S. economic outperformance and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A weaker revision may pressure the dollar, as markets reassess growth prospects and lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger growth revisions could push yields higher, as investors price in firmer activity and potentially more persistent inflation pressures.
Downward revisions typically lead to lower yields, reflecting softer growth expectations and increased demand for safe-haven assets.
Federal Reserve Policy
A stronger-than-expected second estimate would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy quickly, supporting a higher-for-longer stance.
A weaker revision — particularly if consumer spending is revised down — would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path as growth risks become more pronounced.
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index for November
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures changes in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. It is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge because it captures a broader range of spending than CPI and adjusts for changes in consumer behavior. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is especially important for assessing underlying inflation trends.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report, headline PCE inflation eased modestly, while core PCE remained sticky, indicating that underlying price pressures were slowing only gradually. Monthly gains moderated compared with earlier in the year, but services inflation — particularly housing- and labor-related categories — remained elevated. Overall, the data suggested continued progress on disinflation, though inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% target.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A cooler-than-expected PCE print could support equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary, as lower inflation improves the outlook for interest-rate cuts.
A hotter-than-expected reading may pressure stocks, tightening financial conditions and raising concerns about prolonged restrictive policy.
US Dollar
Stronger inflation data typically supports the U.S. dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A softer PCE print may weigh on the dollar, as markets price in a more dovish policy path.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher-than-expected inflation would likely push yields higher, reflecting increased inflation risk and delayed rate cuts.
Lower inflation readings generally lead to lower yields, as markets anticipate easing and reduced inflation pressure.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm core PCE reading would reinforce a higher-for-longer stance, encouraging the Fed to remain cautious about easing.
A softer inflation profile strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy outlook, increasing confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward target.
08:30 ET
US Durable Goods October Prelim
The Durable Goods Orders report, published monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, measures new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for long-lasting goods (items expected to last three years or more), such as machinery, vehicles, and aircraft. It is a key indicator of business investment and manufacturing demand, and is closely watched for signals on economic momentum and capital spending trends. Core durable goods — excluding transportation — and non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft are especially important for assessing underlying investment activity.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (September), durable goods orders declined, driven largely by a sharp drop in transportation orders, particularly aircraft. Excluding transportation, orders were more stable, suggesting underlying demand held up better than the headline implied. Core capital goods orders were mixed, pointing to cautious business investment amid tighter financial conditions and uncertain demand outlooks.
Overall, the report suggested that while headline volatility persists, underlying capital spending momentum had moderated rather than collapsed.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected print — especially in core and capital goods orders — could lift equities, particularly industrials and manufacturing-linked stocks, by signaling firmer business investment.
A weak headline or further softness in core orders may weigh on cyclicals, raising concerns about slowing capital expenditure and growth.
US Dollar
Upside surprises in durable goods, especially outside transportation, tend to support the dollar by reinforcing confidence in U.S. growth.
A softer report may pressure the dollar, as weaker investment demand strengthens expectations for slower growth and a more dovish Fed stance.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger orders can push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and reduced demand for safe-haven assets.
Weaker orders typically lead to lower yields, as markets price in softer activity and increased odds of policy easing.
Federal Reserve Policy
Firm durable goods and capital goods orders would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer approach.
A weak report — particularly in core capital goods — strengthens the case for a more accommodative stance, as slowing investment signals cooling economic momentum.
09:15 ET
US Industrial Production for November
The Industrial Production (IP) index, published monthly by the Federal Reserve, measures real output from the US manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. It is a key gauge of industrial activity and overall economic momentum, offering insight into demand conditions, capacity pressures, and implications for monetary policy.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (October), industrial production declined modestly, reflecting softness in manufacturing output and uneven performance across sectors. Manufacturing activity weakened, while mining provided limited support and utilities output was largely unchanged. Capacity utilization edged lower, indicating easing pressure on productive resources. Overall, the data pointed to cooling industrial momentum amid softer demand and tighter financial conditions.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If industrial production beats expectations, equities — particularly industrials and cyclicals — may benefit as stronger output signals healthier demand and earnings prospects.
A weaker-than-expected print could weigh on stocks, especially manufacturing- and materials-linked names, as growth concerns intensify.
US Dollar
Stronger production data typically supports the dollar, reinforcing confidence in U.S. economic resilience and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A softer reading may pressure the dollar, as markets lean toward slower growth and a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
An upside surprise could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
A downside surprise would likely lead to lower yields, as investors price in weaker activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A robust industrial production print would lessen pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a hold or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak reading would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if accompanied by softness in other growth indicators.
10:00 ET
US CB Consumer Confidence for December
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) measures households’ perceptions of current economic conditions and their expectations for the next six months. It is based on a monthly survey of US consumers and is closely watched because consumer spending drives roughly 70% of US GDP. The index is split into the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index, the latter often viewed as a leading indicator for economic momentum.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (November), consumer confidence edged lower, as gains in the assessment of current conditions were offset by weaker expectations for the months ahead. The Expectations Index remained subdued, reflecting ongoing concerns about future job availability, income prospects, and broader economic uncertainty. Inflation expectations were broadly stable, but consumers continued to cite high prices as a key constraint on spending. Overall, the report pointed to cautious household sentiment, despite relative resilience in current labour-market conditions.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If confidence improves meaningfully in December — particularly expectations — equities may benefit, led by consumer discretionary and retail stocks, as stronger sentiment supports spending outlooks.
A weaker-than-expected reading could weigh on stocks, especially consumer-facing sectors, as it signals more cautious household behaviour and potential demand softness.
US Dollar
Stronger confidence data tends to support the dollar, as it reinforces growth resilience and reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A disappointing print may pressure the dollar, with markets shifting toward slower growth and a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
An upside surprise could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced demand for safe-haven assets.
A downside surprise would likely pull yields lower, as investors price in softer consumption and increased odds of monetary accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Improving consumer confidence would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance if inflation risks persist.
A deterioration in confidence — especially expectations — would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy outlook, as weaker sentiment may translate into slower spending and growth.
Wednesday 24th December
The market closes early due to Christmas Eve [13:00 ET]
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing a timely snapshot of layoff activity. Continued Jobless Claims track the number of people who remain on unemployment benefits, offering insight into unemployment duration and underlying labour-market slack. Together, they are closely watched indicators of labour-market momentum and economic health.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous week’s report, initial claims remained relatively low, indicating that layoffs were still contained. However, continued claims increased, suggesting that while fewer workers are losing jobs, those who are unemployed are taking longer to find new employment. Overall, the data pointed to a gradual cooling in labour-market conditions rather than an abrupt deterioration.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims would likely support equities by reinforcing confidence in labour-market resilience and consumer spending.
Higher-than-expected claims — particularly a further rise in continued claims — could weigh on stocks, especially cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors, as growth concerns increase.
US Dollar
A strong labour-market signal (low claims) typically supports the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A weaker reading (higher claims) may pressure the dollar, with markets shifting toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Lower claims may push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced demand for safe-haven assets.
Higher claims generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy easing.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm claims report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A soft report — especially rising continued claims — strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack builds.
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) measures the change in U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve). It is one of the most closely watched short-term indicators for oil markets, as it reflects the balance between supply, demand, imports, exports, and refinery activity. Larger-than-expected builds are typically bearish for oil prices, while larger-than-expected draws are bullish.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report, US crude inventories declined, posting a draw that exceeded market expectations. The move reflected firmer refinery utilization and lower net imports, suggesting tighter near-term supply conditions. The data provided short-term support for crude prices, reversing some concerns about oversupply seen in earlier weeks.
What to Expect
Energy Stocks
A larger-than-expected draw would likely support energy equities — particularly exploration and production companies — as higher crude prices improve revenue and cash-flow expectations.
A surprise build could pressure energy stocks, especially those most sensitive to oil-price movements.
Oil Prices
A bullish inventory draw typically pushes oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of tighter market conditions.
A bearish build tends to weigh on oil prices, signaling softer demand or excess supply in the short term.
Broader Implications
While this release primarily impacts energy markets, persistent inventory trends can influence inflation expectations via fuel prices. Sustained draws may contribute to upward pressure on energy costs, while repeated builds can have a disinflationary effect.
Thursday 25th December
The market closed due to the Christmas Holiday
No noteworthy economic indicators.
Friday 26th December
The market is open as usual on Boxing Day
No noteworthy economic indicators.
