Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 29th December – 2nd January (US)

Monday 29th December
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) measures the change in US commercial crude oil stockpiles, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
It is a key short-term indicator for oil markets, reflecting shifts in supply, demand, imports, exports, and refinery activity. Larger-than-expected builds are typically bearish for crude prices, while larger-than-expected draws are bullish.

What to Expect
Energy Stocks
A larger-than-expected draw would likely support energy equities, particularly exploration and production companies, as firmer crude prices improve revenue and cash-flow expectations.
A surprise inventory build could weigh on energy stocks, especially those most sensitive to short-term oil-price movements.
Oil Prices
A bullish draw generally pushes oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of tighter near-term market conditions.
A bearish build typically pressures oil prices lower, signalling softer demand or excess supply.
Broader Implications
While the inventory report primarily impacts oil and energy assets, sustained trends in crude stocks can influence inflation expectations through fuel costs. Persistent draws may add mild inflationary pressure, while repeated builds can contribute to a disinflationary backdrop.

Tuesday 30th December
14:00 ET
FOMC Meeting Minutes for the December Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes provide a detailed account of the discussions, debates, and risk assessments that took place at the Fed’s most recent policy meeting. While they do not introduce new policy decisions, the minutes offer important insight into how policymakers are interpreting economic data, inflation risks, labour-market conditions, and the future path of interest rates.

Summary of Last Report
At the December meeting, policymakers broadly agreed that inflation continued to make progress toward the Fed’s 2% target, though risks remained — particularly in services inflation and wage dynamics. Officials noted signs of cooling labour-market conditions, including slower hiring and reduced job openings, while emphasizing that the economy remained resilient overall.
The discussion reflected a more balanced risk assessment, with growing awareness of downside growth risks alongside persistent inflation concerns. Several participants highlighted the importance of avoiding overtightening, while others stressed the need to keep policy restrictive until inflation is clearly on a sustainable path lower. Overall, the minutes reinforced a data-dependent, cautious approach to future policy moves.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the minutes are interpreted as more dovish — emphasizing downside growth risks and openness to future easing — equities may react positively, particularly rate-sensitive sectors.
A more hawkish tone, stressing inflation persistence or the need to keep policy tight for longer, could weigh on stocks as financial conditions tighten.
US Dollar
Dovish minutes would likely pressure the dollar, as markets price in a lower future rate path.
Hawkish signals may support the dollar, reinforcing expectations that U.S. rates will remain higher for longer.
US Government Bond Yields
If the minutes highlight easing inflation and rising growth risks, yields may fall, particularly at the front end, as expectations for rate cuts increase.
If inflation risks dominate the discussion, yields could move higher, reflecting a more restrictive policy outlook.
Federal Reserve Policy
The minutes may shape expectations around the timing and pace of future rate cuts, clarifying how close the Fed believes it is to shifting toward accommodation.
A cautious but balanced tone would reinforce the Fed’s commitment to remaining data-dependent, while any clear emphasis on inflation risks would suggest policy will stay restrictive for longer.

Wednesday 31st December
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, offering a timely read on layoff activity. Continued Jobless Claims track the number of people who remain on unemployment benefits after their initial claim, providing insight into unemployment duration and underlying labour-market slack. Together, these weekly indicators are closely watched for early signals of shifts in labour-market conditions.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims would likely support equities by reinforcing confidence in labour-market resilience and consumer spending.
Higher-than-expected claims — particularly a further rise in continued claims — could weigh on stocks, especially cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors, as growth concerns build.
US Dollar
A strong labour-market signal (lower claims) typically supports the U.S. dollar, reducing expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A weaker reading (higher claims) may pressure the dollar, as markets lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Lower claims can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Higher claims generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm claims report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A soft report — particularly rising continued claims — strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack gradually increases.

Thursday 1st January 
US Market Holiday: New Year’s Day
No noteworthy economic indicators.

Friday 2nd January
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI for December
The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI surveys purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector on output, new orders, employment, inventories, and supplier delivery times. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. As a timely indicator, the PMI provides early insight into manufacturing momentum, demand conditions, and cost pressures heading into the month.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (November), the Manufacturing PMI eased slightly but remained in expansionary territory, indicating modest growth in factory activity. New orders softened, suggesting some demand headwinds, while output growth slowed. Employment conditions were mixed, and input-cost pressures persisted but showed signs of gradual moderation. Overall, the data pointed to continued but slowing manufacturing momentum.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected PMI could lift equities, particularly industrials and manufacturing-linked names, by signalling firmer demand and improved earnings prospects.
A weaker-than-expected reading — especially a move toward contraction — may weigh on cyclical stocks as growth concerns intensify.
US Dollar
An upside surprise typically supports the dollar, reinforcing confidence in U.S. economic resilience and reducing expectations for near-term easing.
A softer PMI may pressure the dollar, as markets lean toward slower growth and a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger manufacturing data can push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker readings generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm PMI would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak PMI strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if accompanied by softness in other growth indicators.