Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 19th – 23rd January (US)
Monday 19th January
08:30 ET
Canadian CPI for December
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published monthly by Statistics Canada, measures changes in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. It is the primary gauge of inflation in Canada and a key indicator for assessing cost-of-living pressures, purchasing power, and the appropriate stance of Bank of Canada monetary policy.
Summary of Last Report
In the most recent release, Canadian CPI rose modestly on a month-over-month basis, with headline inflation remaining elevated but showing signs of gradual moderation. Energy prices were a notable contributor to headline inflation, while core inflation measures continued to ease, reflecting slower price growth in shelter-related components and more subdued goods inflation. On a year-over-year basis, inflation edged lower, reinforcing the view that price pressures are cooling, albeit unevenly.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
If CPI comes in above expectations, the Canadian dollar may strengthen as markets price in a more restrictive policy path. A weaker inflation reading would likely pressure the CAD as rate expectations shift lower.
Government of Canada Bond Yields
A stronger inflation print would likely push GoC bond yields higher as investors reassess inflation risks. A downside surprise would likely see yields fall as markets price in a more benign inflation outlook.
Bank of Canada Policy
With markets currently debating the timing of Bank of Canada rate cuts and policymakers closely watching core inflation measures, CPI is a critical input. A softer-than-expected report would reinforce confidence that disinflation is taking hold, supporting expectations for policy easing later this year. A firmer print, particularly in core inflation, would challenge that view and could lead the BoC to maintain a more cautious, restrictive stance for longer.
Tuesday 20th January
No noteworthy economic indicators
Wednesday 21st January
No noteworthy economic indicators
Thursday 22nd January
08:30 ET
US GDP Q3 Final
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), reported quarterly by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. economy. The “final” estimate is the third and last revision for the quarter and incorporates more complete source data, offering the most comprehensive snapshot of economic growth for the period.
Summary of Last Report
In the prior estimate, U.S. GDP for Q3 showed a solid annualized pace of growth, driven primarily by resilient consumer spending and steady contributions from business investment. Government spending also provided support, while net exports were a modest drag. Inflation measures within the report, including the GDP price index and core PCE prices, showed continued moderation, suggesting easing price pressures alongside firm real activity.
What to Expect – US Stocks
An upward revision to growth may support equities by reinforcing confidence in economic momentum, particularly for cyclical sectors. A downward revision could weigh on sentiment, though market impact is typically more muted given this is a backward-looking release.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected final GDP reading could lend support to the U.S. dollar by reinforcing perceptions of economic resilience. A weaker revision may pressure the dollar modestly, though reactions are often limited given the data’s lagging nature.
US Government Bond Yields
If GDP growth is revised higher, Treasury yields may edge up as investors reassess growth dynamics. A downward revision could see yields drift lower, reflecting softer activity, though moves are usually contained.
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index for October – November
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge due to its broader coverage, ability to reflect changing consumer behavior, and close alignment with the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is especially important for policy decisions.
Summary of Last Report
In the latest available update (September 2025), the PCE price index rose 0.3% month-over-month, while core PCE increased 0.2%, pointing to continued but moderating underlying inflation pressure. On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation was 2.8% and core PCE inflation was 2.8%.
What to Expect – US Stocks
A softer-than-expected PCE print could support equities by reinforcing hopes for lower interest rates and improving valuation conditions. A hotter reading may pressure stocks, particularly growth and rate-sensitive sectors, as inflation concerns resurface.
US Dollar
A stronger PCE reading typically supports the U.S. dollar by pushing interest-rate expectations higher. A weaker inflation print would likely weigh on the dollar as markets anticipate a more accommodative policy path.
US Government Bond Yields
If PCE inflation exceeds expectations, Treasury yields are likely to rise as markets reassess the inflation outlook and the path of policy rates. A downside surprise would likely push yields lower as investors price in reduced inflation risk.
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims, released weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor, measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. It is a high-frequency indicator of labor market conditions and is closely watched for early signals of changes in employment trends, layoffs, and overall economic momentum.
Summary of Last Report
In the January 15, 2026 release covering the week ended January 10, seasonally adjusted initial claims fell to 198,000 (down 9,000 from the prior week’s revised 207,000). The 4-week moving average declined to 205,000 (down 6,500). Continuing claims (insured unemployment) for the week ended January 3 fell to 1.884 million (down 19,000)
What to Expect – US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims may support equities by reinforcing confidence in labor market resilience and economic stability. Higher claims could weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical sectors, as concerns about slowing growth increase.
US Dollar
A decline in jobless claims typically supports the US dollar by reinforcing expectations of economic strength. An upside surprise in claims may pressure the dollar as markets reassess growth and rate expectations.
US Government Bond Yields
If claims come in lower than expected, Treasury yields may rise as investors price in continued labor market strength. Higher claims would likely pull yields lower as markets anticipate softer activity.
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, released weekly by the US Energy Information Administration, measures the change in the volume of crude oil held in US commercial storage. It is a key indicator of supply-demand balances in the oil market and is closely watched for signals on consumption trends, production levels, and near-term price dynamics.
Summary of Last Report
In the latest weekly release, US crude oil inventories rose more than expected, pointing to softer near-term demand and/or higher supply. The build was accompanied by mixed product inventory movements, with gasoline and distillate stocks showing limited improvement. Refinery utilization was little changed, suggesting demand from refiners remained stable.
Oil Prices
If inventories rise more than forecast, crude prices may come under pressure as markets price in looser fundamentals. A sharper-than-expected draw would likely support oil prices, particularly if accompanied by strong refinery runs or declining production.
Friday 23rd January
08:30 ET
Canadian Retail Sales for November
Canadian Retail Sales, published monthly by Statistics Canada, measure changes in the value of goods sold by retailers across the economy. The release provides insight into consumer spending trends, household demand, and overall economic momentum, making it an important input for assessing growth and monetary policy conditions.
Summary of Last Report
In the latest release, Canadian retail sales rose modestly on a month-over-month basis, supported by gains in core categories, while volatile sectors such as motor vehicles showed mixed performance. The control group, which feeds directly into GDP calculations, also showed steady growth, pointing to resilient consumer demand despite elevated interest rates.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
An upside surprise in retail sales would likely support the CAD by reinforcing expectations of economic resilience. A weaker reading may pressure the currency as growth expectations soften.
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing & Services PMI January Prelim
S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys provide timely, monthly snapshots of business conditions across the US private sector. The Manufacturing PMI tracks output, orders, employment, and prices in factories, while the Services PMI tracks activity across the much larger services economy. Readings above 50 signal expansion; below 50 signal contraction.
Summary of Last Report (December 2025 final)
In the December 2025 releases, momentum cooled across both sectors. The US Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 (from 52.2), marking the weakest expansion of the recent upturn, while the US Services PMI fell to 52.5 (from 54.1), the slowest growth in eight months. Services demand softened notably, and manufacturing growth relied more on output and staffing while new order momentum cooled.
What to Expect – US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected PMI (especially services) can support equities by signalling firmer growth and better earnings momentum. A weaker print can weigh on cyclicals and economically sensitive sectors, particularly if it points to slowing new orders and hiring.
US Dollar
PMI upside surprises tend to support the US dollar by reinforcing relative growth strength. A softer reading can pressure the dollar if it signals a broader cooling in activity.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger PMIs may push yields higher (bond prices lower) as markets reassess growth momentum. Weaker PMIs typically pull yields lower, especially if accompanied by softer demand and easing price pressures.
10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey January Final
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey (Surveys of Consumers) is a monthly survey-based read on household confidence, split into Current Economic Conditions and Consumer Expectations. It also includes closely watched inflation expectations (1-year and 5-10 year), making it a useful gauge of consumer demand risk and inflation psychology.
Summary of Last Report (January 2026 preliminary)
In the January 2026 preliminary release, the Index of Consumer Sentiment edged up to 54.0 (from 52.9 in December), with Current Conditions rising to 52.4 (from 50.4) and Expectations ticking up to 55.0 (from 54.6). 1-year inflation expectations held steady at 4.2%, while long-run inflation expectations rose to 3.4% (from 3.2%).
What to Expect – US Stocks
A stronger sentiment/expectations reading can support equities by signalling steadier consumer demand, while a weaker print may weigh on cyclicals and consumer-facing sectors. Markets tend to react more if the survey shows a sharp shift in expectations or spending-related attitudes.
US Dollar
An upside surprise in sentiment can be modestly USD-supportive if it reinforces a resilient growth backdrop. A downside surprise may pressure the USD if it points to softer demand and cooling momentum.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger sentiment can push yields higher at the margin (less growth downside), while weaker sentiment can pull yields lower, especially if it aligns with softer consumption signals.
