Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 26th – 30th January (US)

Monday the 26th of January
08:30 ET
US Durable Goods Prelim for November
The Durable Goods Preliminary Report (often called the “Advance” or “Preliminary” Durable Goods Orders) is a monthly release by the U.S. Census Bureau that estimates the change in new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods (those expected to last three years or more, such as machinery, vehicles, and equipment). Because durable goods orders are sensitive to business investment and consumer demand, this series is watched as a timely indicator of manufacturing activity and broader economic momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent (October 2025) durable goods orders report, new orders were roughly flat to slightly evolving compared with prior months, with mixed signals across sectors. Earlier Census advance monthly data showed an underlying trend of modest weakness in manufacturing orders, with transportation equipment and defence bookings contributing to volatility. Meanwhile, broader manufacturing metrics have softened, reflecting weaker demand in the sector and elevated costs. US manufacturing activity also decelerated through November, as survey data indicated slower new orders and inventory build-ups, suggesting manufacturing remained under pressure late in the year.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If November durable goods orders come in above expectations, cyclical sectors (especially industrials and materials) could see a positive reaction, as stronger orders signal firmer business investment and production activity. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected report may weigh on cyclical equities, reinforcing views of manufacturing softness and slowing economic momentum.
US Dollar
Stronger than expected durable goods data tends to support the US dollar, as it suggests resilient domestic demand and growth, which could underpin broader risk sentiment and tighten yield differentials. A softer outcome may pressure the dollar lower, especially if it feeds into concerns about slowing economic activity and subdued demand.
US Government Bond Yields
If the durable goods reading beats expectations, bond yields may rise (prices fall) as markets price in stronger economic activity and inflation potential tied to manufacturing demand. If the report disappoints, yields could fall as traders shift toward safer assets in anticipation of weaker growth.
Federal Reserve Policy
Given that markets are currently sensitive to signs of economic slowing and have priced in limited near-term tightening or even easing later in the year, a stronger-than-expected durable goods report would challenge that narrative by suggesting underlying demand is more resilient than feared, potentially delaying expectations for rate cuts. A weaker print would reinforce the current dovish bias, aligning with softer manufacturing indicators and bolstering arguments for policy accommodation if broader activity data continues to soften.

Tuesday the 27th of January
10:00 ET
CB Consumer Confidence for January
The Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Index is a monthly survey of U.S. households that measures consumers’ perceptions of current business and labour market conditions as well as their expectations for the next six months regarding income, employment, and overall economic activity. Because consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. GDP, the index is a widely followed leading indicator of economic momentum and demand trends.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent complete reading for December 2025, the CB Consumer Confidence Index stood at 89.1, below both the prior month and expectations, reflecting continued softening in consumer sentiment amid concerns about the economy.For January 2026, traders will look for the latest Conference Board release (due late January) to gauge whether confidence has continued to trend lower, stabilised, or improved. In recent months, confidence measures such as the University of Michigan’s sentiment index have shown some modest improvement, though sentiment remains depressed relative to historical norms.

What to Expect:
US Stocks
If January consumer confidence comes in above expectations, equities, particularly domestically focused sectors like retail and consumer discretionary,  could see support as stronger confidence suggests resilience in household spending. If the data disappoints, consumer-sensitive stocks may come under pressure on concerns that demand is weakening.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected confidence reading would likely lend modest support to the US dollar, as it signals better economic momentum and could reinforce the case for U.S. interest rates remaining higher for longer. A weaker print may temper dollar strength, especially if it reinforces growth worries.
US Government Bond Yields
If consumer confidence beats expectations, yields on U.S. Treasuries may rise (prices fall) as markets price in firmer economic activity and higher future borrowing demand. If the index undershoots forecasts, yields could fall as investors seek safe-haven assets amid softer growth prospects.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets have largely priced in a pause or limited rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, given persistent inflation and tight labour markets. A stronger-than-expected consumer confidence reading would challenge the softer economic backdrop priced into rates and could reduce the likelihood of near-term easing, reinforcing the current policy pause narrative. Conversely, a weaker result would bolster expectations that the Fed may pivot toward rate cuts later this year if soft data accumulates, strengthening the argument for policy accommodation.

Wednesday the 28th of January
09:45 ET
BOC Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada (BoC) Rate Decision is the announcement of the central bank’s overnight policy interest rate, which influences borrowing costs, financial conditions, and ultimately economic activity in Canada. Decisions occur on a scheduled calendar of eight dates per year, with the Governing Council evaluating inflation, labour markets, economic growth, and global developments to determine whether to raise, lower, or maintain the policy rate. Markets closely watch both the rate announcement and the accompanying Monetary Policy Report for guidance on the BoC’s outlook.

Summary of Last Report
At its December 10, 2025, meeting, the BoC held the overnight policy rate at 2.25%, in line with market expectations. Headline inflation was running modestly above 2%, but core inflation measures were easing, suggesting underlying price pressures were stabilising within the Bank’s 1–3% target range. This decision reflected the view that inflation had broadly moderated and that the current policy setting was appropriate amid economic uncertainty, particularly from external influences such as U.S. policy and trade dynamics. Markets widely priced a continued hold at January 28, 2026, with limited expectations of further rate moves in the near term.

What to Expect:
Canada Stocks
If the BoC raises rates or signals a tighter bias, Canadian equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and consumer discretionary, could face short-term headwinds as higher borrowing costs weigh on demand and investment. If the Bank holds or pivots toward a more dovish outlook, equities may benefit from easing financial conditions and supportive policy expectations.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
A hawkish surprise  , either a rate hike or a more restrictive forward guidance, would likely strengthen the CAD as markets price in firmer monetary conditions. Alternatively, a hawkish hold or dovish tilt (e.g., guidance emphasising potential future cuts) could weaken the CAD as rate differential expectations soften.
Government of Canada Bond Yields
If the BoC surprises with a hawkish stance, Government of Canada bond yields may rise (prices fall) as investors anticipate tighter policy and higher interest rates for longer. If the decision is dovish or neutral with easing expectations, yields could decline as markets price in softer monetary conditions.
Bank of Canada Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are currently pricing the BoC to hold the policy rate at 2.25% through much of 2026, reflecting the view that inflation has moved closer to target and further cuts are unlikely without a significant deterioration in economic data. A hawkish outcome (e.g., stronger guidance on inflation resilience or hints that tightening could be necessary) would challenge this consensus, reinforcing the narrative that the Bank is done easing and may even shift toward tightening later if inflation persists. A dovish outcome (e.g., emphasis on downside growth risks or more explicit easing bias) would bolster market expectations that the BoC may consider rate cuts in later 2026 should inflation pressures remain subdued.

10:30 ET
EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA Crude Oil Inventories report is a weekly release from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) that measures the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in commercial storage in the United States. Because crude oil stockpiles reflect the balance between supply (production + imports) and demand (refining + exports), the weekly change is a highly watched short-term indicator for energy markets, especially oil prices and energy sector sentiment.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent EIA release, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 4.07 million barrels, significantly above analysts’ forecasts of about a 2.4 million-barrel build. This larger-than-expected increase suggests weaker than anticipated demand or slower turnover in stockpiles, typically seen as bearish for oil prices and commodity sentiment overall.

What to Expect
Energy Stocks
Above expectations (larger draw or smaller build): A bigger-than-expected drawdown in crude inventories would likely lift oil prices and buoy energy stocks, as it points to tightening supply or stronger demand. Below expectations (larger build or smaller draw): A larger build, as in the most recent data, tends to pressure oil prices and weigh on energy sector equities, reflecting oversupply or weaker demand dynamics.
Oil Prices
Above expectations: If inventories fall more than forecast, WTI and Brent crude prices are likely to rally on the perception of tightening supply and robust demand fundamentals.
Below expectations: A surprise build in stocks would likely push oil prices lower as markets digest signs of excess supply relative to demand.
Inflation/Commodity Sentiment
Because crude oil is a major input for transportation and energy costs, stronger crude demand (inventory draws) can feed through to broader commodity and inflation expectations, whereas inventory builds can signal weaker commodity inflation pressures.

14:00 ET
US Interest Rate Decision
The US Interest Rate Decision refers to the monetary policy action taken by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve (Fed) to set the target range for the federal funds rate, the benchmark overnight rate that influences borrowing costs throughout the economy. This decision affects consumer and business credit costs, financial conditions, economic activity, inflation, and financial markets broadly. The Fed typically meets eight times per year to assess data and adjust policy as needed.

Summary of Last Report
At its December 2025 meeting, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third consecutive reduction as policymakers aimed to support slowing growth and labour market softness. The committee’s projections signalled only one additional quarter-point cut in 2026, and officials emphasised a cautious approach amid persistent inflation just above target and mixed economic signals.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the Fed surprises markets with a hawkish hold or hawkish guidance, equity markets — particularly interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as technology — could see downward pressure as higher-for-longer rates tighten financial conditions. If the Fed signals a more dovish outlook, equities could rally as eased monetary expectations support risk assets.
US Dollar
A hawkish than expected decision — either maintaining rates with a firm outlook on inflation — would likely strengthen the US dollar by reinforcing expectations of relatively higher U.S. yields. In contrast, dovish guidance (e.g., emphasizing future cuts) could weaken the dollar as markets price in softer rate paths.
US Government Bond Yields
If the Fed surprises with a hawkish tone, Treasury yields may rise (prices fall) as investors repriced tighter policy and delayed cuts. If the Fed signals a dovish tilt, yields could fall as markets increase expectations for rate cuts and softer economic activity.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are currently pricing a high probability that the Fed will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at the January meeting, with limited expectations for a cut and some bets priced in for later in 2026 amid slowing inflation and a softening labour market.
A hawkish outcome where the Fed emphasises inflation persistence or signals fewer rate cuts than expected would challenge the softer bias priced into markets and reinforce the narrative that the Fed is more comfortable keeping policy restrictive for longer. A dovish outcome where the Fed highlights downside risks or explicitly signals forthcoming rate cuts would reinforce market expectations for easing later in 2026 and likely soften the outlook for yields and the dollar.

Thursday the 29th of January
08:30 ET
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims is released weekly by the U.S. Department of Labour,  and measures the number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time during the prior week. It is one of the timeliest indicators of U.S. labour market conditions, offering a near-real-time snapshot of layoffs and labour demand. Because employment trends feed into consumer spending and overall economic momentum, markets closely watch this weekly release for signs of labour strength or softening.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent report for the week ending January 17, 2026, initial jobless claims rose slightly to about 200,000, up by 1,000 from the prior week but below market expectations of roughly 208,000–209,000, signalling continued resilience in the labour market. The four-week moving average, which smooths weekly volatility,  was also around multi-year lows, consistent with a labour market that remains relatively stable despite some slowing hiring trends and seasonal adjustment challenges.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If jobless claims come in lower than expected (fewer claims), U.S. equities, especially consumer and cyclical sectors, could react positively, as a tighter labour market supports household income and spending. A higher-than-expected reading (more claims) might dampen stock sentiment, particularly for cyclicals, by suggesting labour market slack and weaker economic momentum.
US Dollar
A stronger jobs reading (claims lower than consensus) typically lends support to the US dollar, as it suggests labour market resilience and may reinforce expectations of a stable rate environment. Conversely, a weaker than expected number could pressure the dollar as markets price in softer economic growth.
US Government Bond Yields
If claims are lower than expected, yields may rise (prices fall) as markets anticipate stronger labour market conditions and potentially firmer future growth. If claims rise more than forecast, yields could fall as investors shift toward bonds amid concerns over slowing economic activity.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are presently balancing signs of labor market resilience with broader economic cooling, pricing in a strong possibility of the Fed holding rates steady in the near term, with limited bets on aggressive tightening or rapid cuts.
If initial jobless claims come in significantly lower than expected, it would reinforce the narrative that the labor market remains robust, potentially making the Fed more comfortable maintaining higher-for-longer rates and delaying expected cuts. A notable rise in claims would bolster arguments for labor softening and could strengthen market expectations for future rate cuts or a more dovish stance in later 2026 as economic data softens.

US Trade Balance for November
The U.S. Trade Balance (also known as the goods and services trade balance) measures the difference between U.S. exports and imports of goods and services during a given month. A trade deficit occurs when imports exceed exports, while a trade surplus occurs when exports exceed imports. Because trade flows represent a significant component of GDP, the trade balance provides insight into net demand for U.S. goods and services, global economic conditions, and the competitiveness of U.S. producers.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent release for October 2025, the U.S. trade deficit widened modestly from the prior month, driven by stronger import growth relative to exports. Imports of consumer goods and industrial supplies increased, reflecting resilient domestic demand and higher energy purchases, while exports of capital goods and agricultural products saw only modest gains. The data suggested that foreign demand for U.S. products remained soft against a backdrop of slowing global growth, while U.S. consumers and businesses continued to import at a robust clip.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the November trade deficit narrows more than expected (i.e., exports rise or imports fall), U.S. equities, particularly industrials and export-related sectors,  could see support as stronger external demand is interpreted as a positive growth signal. If the deficit widens more than expected, it may weigh on cyclical equities by underscoring weak overseas demand and a drag on GDP growth.
US Dollar
A narrower-than-expected deficit typically supports the US dollar, as it implies stronger foreign demand for U.S. goods and services and tighter global balance-of-payments dynamics. A larger-than-expected deficit may dampen the dollar as it suggests weaker external demand and potential downward pressure on domestic economic activity.
US Government Bond Yields
If the trade balance improves more than forecast, yields may rise (prices fall) as markets price in stronger growth momentum and higher future demand for credit. If the deficit widens more than expected, yields could fall as markets recalibrate toward slower growth and potentially more accommodative monetary policy.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are currently positioned for the Federal Reserve to maintain a steady policy stance in the near term, with modest expectations for future rate cuts later in 2026 should economic data soften further.
A narrower-than-expected trade deficit would challenge the softer external demand narrative priced into markets and reinforce the view that economic momentum is more resilient, potentially reducing pressure on the Fed to ease policy. Conversely, a wider-than-expected deficit would bolster the case for slower growth and could strengthen market expectations for a more dovish Fed bias later in the year if global demand remains subdued.

10:00 ET
US Factory Orders for November
The US Factory Orders report, released monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, measures the change in the total dollar value of new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for both durable and nondurable goods. It is a key indicator of demand for manufactured products, including business investment and consumer goods and offers insight into future manufacturing activity and overall economic trends.

Summary of Last Report
In November 2025, U.S. factory orders decreased by about 0.4% month-over-month, slightly more than economists had anticipated, following a modest gain in October. Orders for durable goods were a notable drag, with declines in transportation equipment and other investment-related categories, while nondurable goods edged higher. The pullback reflects softening demand in the manufacturing sector, consistent with broader data showing subdued factory activity amid elevated costs and global demand headwinds.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If November factory orders come in stronger than expected, industrial and materials stocks could benefit as renewed demand for manufactured goods would signal firmer economic momentum. A weaker-than-expected print could weigh on cyclical equities by reinforcing concerns about slowing investment and manufacturing activity.
US Dollar
Stronger factory orders data would likely lend support to the US dollar as it signals more resilient economic activity, potentially strengthening expectations for continued U.S. growth. A softer outcome could pressure the dollar as markets interpret weaker demand and soft activity as a headwind for the economy.
US Government Bond Yields
If the report exceeds expectations, yields may rise (prices fall) as investors price in stronger growth and reduced odds of aggressive monetary easing. Conversely, if orders undershoot forecasts, yields could fall as bond markets shift toward safer assets amid signs of slower economic momentum.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are currently positioned for the Federal Reserve to hold the policy rate steady in the near term, with limited expectations for near-term tightening and some anticipation of rate cuts later in 2026 if economic data softens further. A stronger-than-expected factory orders report would challenge the prevailing softer economic narrative priced into markets and reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates soon, reinforcing the view that the economy may be more resilient than feared. A weaker reading would bolster expectations for future rate cuts, aligning with concerns that manufacturing weakness could weigh on broader activity and increase the case for monetary accommodation.

Friday the 30th of January
08:30 ET
US Wholesale Inventories Prelim for December
The US Wholesale Inventories Preliminary estimate is part of the Census Bureau’s Monthly Wholesale Trade Report, which measures the change in the total dollar value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers before final revisions. This series offers an early read on business inventory trends and the balance between supply and demand in the wholesale sector. Because wholesale inventories feed into broader business inventories and GDP calculations, the preliminary reading helps markets gauge inventory momentum and potential impacts on economic growth.

Summary of Last Report
In December, U.S. wholesale inventories declined by about 0.5% month-over-month, matching the preliminary estimate and consensus expectations, according to the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau. The drop in inventories followed rising wholesale sales, which increased roughly 1.0% in the same month, implying that wholesalers were drawing down stock amid relatively strong demand. The inventories-to-sales ratio eased slightly, indicating solid sales relative to stock levels.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If December wholesale inventories show a smaller-than-expected decline or even an unexpected build, cyclical equities, particularly industrials and materials, could benefit, as it may signal slower depletion of stock relative to demand. Conversely, a larger-than-expected drop in inventories could weigh on these sectors by suggesting weaker wholesale stock accumulation and potential slowing demand.
US Dollar
A weaker inventory draw (i.e., a smaller decline or build) might support the US dollar by signalling steadier economic activity and demand, while a larger inventory draw could modestly pressure the dollar by reinforcing views of softer domestic demand dynamics.
US Government Bond Yields
If inventories come in better than expected (smaller draw or unexpected build), yields could rise (prices fall) as markets interpret this as supportive of economic activity. If the data show a deeper draw than forecast, yields might fall as fixed-income markets price in slower demand and softer growth.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are currently positioned for the Federal Reserve to hold the policy rate steady in the near term, with modest expectations for cuts later in 2026 if economic data soften further.
A smaller-than-expected inventory decline or an unexpected inventory build would challenge the softer economic narrative priced into markets and suggest supply–demand balances are healthier, potentially reducing pressure on the Fed to ease soon. A larger-than-expected drop would bolster the case for softer demand and strengthen expectations that the Fed may consider future rate cuts should additional data reinforce a slowdown.

US PPI for December
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) and measures changes in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. It is a key indicator of wholesale inflation and often precedes changes in consumer inflation by capturing price pressures earlier in the supply chain. Because rising producer prices can feed into consumer prices and profit margins, PPI is closely watched by markets for signals about inflation momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In December 2025, the PPI for final demand rose by 0.2% month-over-month, below the consensus expectation of a 0.3% gain, indicating a modest slowdown in wholesale price pressures. On a year-over-year basis, prices were up about 3.3%, also slightly under forecasts. Energy prices contributed to the monthly increase, while food prices edged lower and services inflation remained subdued, suggesting mixed inflation signals within the producer pipeline. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) showed very modest gains, pointing to continued but easing underlying price pressures.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the December PPI comes in stronger than expectations, cyclically sensitive sectors like industrials and materials could outperform as firmer producer prices suggest robust demand and pricing power. If the reading undershoots expectations, risk assets may rally, particularly growth and consumer stocks, on signs that inflation pressures are easing and input costs are contained.
US Dollar
A hotter-than-expected PPI print would likely support the US dollar by reinforcing the narrative that inflation remains persistent, potentially boosting demand for dollar-denominated assets. A softer reading would tend to weaken the dollar as markets price in lower inflation momentum and reduced pressure on monetary policy.
US Government Bond Yields
If PPI comes in above forecasts, Treasury yields may rise (prices fall) as investors reprice inflation risk and demand higher yields. If the data are weaker than expected, yields could fall as softer inflation signals reduce expectations for future policy tightening.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are currently pricing a moderate inflation backdrop with limited expectations for aggressive Fed tightening in the near term, and a growing emphasis on whether inflation rolls over enough to justify eventual rate cuts later in 2026.
A stronger-than-expected PPI would challenge the prevailing soft-inflation narrative priced into markets and reinforce the idea that the Fed may remain cautious about easing policy, potentially delaying anticipated rate cuts. A weaker-than-expected report would bolster expectations that inflation pressures are continuing to ease more broadly, strengthening the case for the Fed to consider rate cuts later in the year if other data, especially labour market indicators, also soften.

08:30 ET
Canadian GDP MoM
Canada’s Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the Canadian economy compared with the previous month. It is a timely gauge of economic momentum, capturing shifts in production, consumer demand, and business activity and is closely watched by markets, policymakers (especially the Bank of Canada), and analysts for signs of acceleration or slowdown in growth.

Summary of Last Report
In the November 2025 release, Canada’s GDP increased by 0.1% month-over-month, rebounding from a notable 0.3% decline in October. November’s modest growth was supported by gains in services sectors such as education, transportation, and construction, partially offsetting weakness in goods-producing industries like manufacturing and mining. The result pointed to some stabilisation in economic activity after recent volatility.

What to Expect
Canada Stocks
If December GDP comes in above expectations, Canadian equities — particularly sectors exposed to domestic demand like consumer discretionary and financials — could benefit as stronger economic activity underscores resilience in growth. If GDP undershoots expectations or contracts, stocks may come under pressure as weaker activity dampens earnings prospects and investor confidence.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
A stronger-than-expected GDP reading would likely support the Canadian dollar, as it signals firmer economic momentum and could sustain higher interest rate expectations relative to other major economies. A weaker outcome would likely weigh on the CAD by reinforcing slower growth dynamics and softer demand for the currency.
Government of Canada Bond Yields
If December GDP is stronger than anticipated, yields on Government of Canada bonds may rise (prices fall) as markets price in stronger economic prospects and potentially tighter monetary conditions. Conversely, a disappointing GDP print could push yields lower (prices higher) as bond markets seek safe-haven assets amid growth concerns.
Bank of Canada Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are currently positioned for the Bank of Canada to maintain a steady policy rate in the near term, with limited expectations for imminent rate changes and a focus on whether growth and inflation data justify future easing. A stronger-than-expected GDP would challenge the softer growth narrative priced into markets and reduce pressure on the BoC to cut rates, supporting a “higher-for-longer” policy stance. A weaker GDP outcome would bolster expectations for potential monetary accommodation later in 2026, reinforcing the view that the Bank may lower rates if economic momentum softens further