Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 2nd – 6th February (US)

Monday the 2nd of February
09:30 ET
Canadian Manufacturing PMI for January
The Canadian Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is a monthly survey-based indicator published by S&P Global that gauges activity in Canada’s manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. It combines data on output, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories to provide an early signal of industrial sector health and trends in business conditions.

Summary of Last Report
In December 2025, Canada’s manufacturing sector remained in contraction, with the PMI around 48.6, slightly up from prior months but still below the neutral 50 threshold. Output and new orders continued to decline, reflecting ongoing headwinds from weak demand and uncertainty tied to trade and global conditions, although the pace of contraction eased marginally. Employment trends remained subdued, and business confidence for future output softened.

What to Expect
Canada Stocks
If the January PMI comes in above expectations (i.e., a stronger-than-forecast reading or a move back toward/above 50), Canadian equity markets, especially industrials and materials, could receive a lift, as it would signal improving manufacturing conditions and broader growth momentum. A weaker reading would likely weigh on these sectors by reinforcing the narrative of manufacturing weakness and softer economic activity.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
A stronger-than-expected PMI would likely support the Canadian dollar, as it would point to firmer domestic economic activity and potentially help sustain a less dovish policy outlook from the Bank of Canada. Conversely, a weaker PMI print could pressure the CAD by suggesting ongoing weakness in one of Canada’s key economic sectors.
Government of Canada Bond Yields
If the PMI surprises to the upside, yields on Government of Canada bonds could rise (prices fall) as markets adjust expectations toward stronger growth and less need for monetary accommodation. If the PMI undershoots projections, yields could fall as bond markets price in slower activity and a softer economic backdrop.
Bank of Canada Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are generally positioned for the Bank of Canada to hold policy rates steady in the near term, given mixed economic signals and modest inflation pressures. A stronger-than-expected PMI would challenge the prevailing soft growth narrative priced into markets and could lessen bets on imminent rate cuts, reinforcing a higher-for-longer stance. A weaker reading would bolster expectations that the BoC may lean toward future easing if broader data continues to signal weakness in economic activity.

09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI for January
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey-based indicator derived from responses by purchasing managers at U.S. manufacturing firms. A reading above 50 signals expansion in manufacturing activity compared to the prior month, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. It combines data on output, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories to provide a timely snapshot of manufacturing sector health, offering insight into business conditions, demand trends, and potential direction for broader economic growth.

Summary of Last Report
In January 2026, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI inched up to 51.9, slightly above December’s 51.8, but below most consensus forecasts (around ~52) and still indicating only modest expansion in factory activity. The reading marked the second-weakest pace of improvement in many months, with employment growth slowing, export orders continuing to lag, and gains broadly modest despite some uptick in output and new orders. Overall, manufacturing remained in expansion territory but with lingering headwinds tied to higher costs and subdued external demand.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the January PMI comes in stronger than expected, particularly with solid gains in new orders and output, U.S. industrial and cyclical stocks could benefit as improved factory momentum would signal resilience in business demand. Conversely, a weaker print could exert pressure on industrial and materials sectors as it reinforces concerns about a cooling manufacturing backdrop.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMI would likely lend support to the US dollar by suggesting firmer domestic economic activity, which can bolster growth expectations relative to other economies. A softer reading could temper dollar strength as markets interpret slower factory activity as a drag on growth prospects.
US Government Bond Yields
If the report beats forecasts, Treasury yields may rise (prices fall) as markets price in stronger growth and reduced odds of near-term monetary easing. If the PMI undershoots expectations, yields could fall as investors shift toward safer assets amid signs of slowing economic momentum.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are currently positioning the Federal Reserve to hold policy steady near current levels, with limited expectation of aggressive tightening and an increasing focus on whether slowing activity will prompt eventual rate cuts later in 2026.
A stronger-than-expected PMI  , particularly one that shows broader acceleration in new orders and output, would challenge the prevailing softer growth narrative priced into markets and could reinforce the view that the economy is resilient enough to keep the Fed in a higher-for-longer stance. A weaker outcome would bolster expectations for potential easing later in the year if the manufacturing softness reflects broader economic deceleration.

10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for January
The ISM Manufacturing PMI,  published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management, is a diffusion survey of purchasing and supply executives in the U.S. manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 signals expansion in manufacturing activity compared with the prior month, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The index incorporates components such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories to provide a real-time view of the health of the manufacturing economy, which is sensitive to business demand, investment, and global conditions.

Summary of Last Report
In the December 2025 release, the ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 47.9, indicating a continuation of contraction in factory activity and undershooting market expectations (~48.3). This marked the 10th consecutive month of PMI contraction, with new orders and employment remaining soft, even as production lingered near breakeven. Persistently weak demand and elevated cost pressures — exacerbated by tariffs and subdued export orders continued to weigh on manufacturing conditions. For January 2026, the market is waiting for the official ISM release (scheduled for early February), with forecasts tracking sentiment in the factory sector to see if contraction persists or if activity begins to stabilise.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the January ISM PMI comes in stronger than expected (e.g., above forecasts or moves toward expansion territory), cyclical and industrial stocks could benefit, as better factory conditions imply firmer demand and growth momentum. A weaker than expected reading is likely to weigh on industrials and materials, reinforcing concerns about manufacturing weakness and its drag on broader earnings.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected PMI would likely support the US dollar, as it would signal more resilient domestic activity and could boost growth expectations relative to other economies. Conversely, a weaker reading would tend to weaken the dollar as markets price in softer growth and potentially slower demand for U.S. goods.
US Government Bond Yields
If the PMI exceeds expectations, bond yields may rise (prices fall) as markets price in stronger economic momentum and reduced odds of near-term monetary easing. If the report undershoots forecasts, yields could fall as investors pivot to safer assets amid signs of manufacturing slowdown.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are largely positioned for the Federal Reserve to hold policy steady near current rates, with limited expectations for tightening and growing focus on whether slowing activity will justify eventual rate cuts later in 2026.
If ISM data comes in stronger than expected, particularly if it shows stabilisation or improvement in new orders and employment,  it would challenge the prevailing softer growth narrative and potentially support a higher-for-longer policy stance by diminishing near-term rate-cut expectations. A weaker outcome would reinforce expectations for future policy accommodation, bolstering the case that the Fed may consider rate cuts later in the year if broader economic weakness persists.

14:00 ET
US Treasury QRA (Prelim)
The US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) is a report issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury that outlines the government’s planned debt issuance strategy and borrowing needs for the upcoming quarter. It specifies how much Treasury securities (bills, notes, bonds, TIPS, FRNs) the Treasury intends to issue, the maturity mix, tentative auction sizes, and any changes to issuance plans effectively setting the roadmap for federal borrowing over the next three months. Markets watch the QRA closely because shifts in supply expectations can influence Treasury prices, yields, and broader financial conditions.

Summary of Last Report (Preliminary)
In the most recent preliminary QRA, Treasury indicated it expects to maintain coupon and floating rate note (FRN) auction sizes at roughly current levels for the coming quarter while beginning to preliminarily consider future increases to issuance in response to fiscal needs. The announcement included planned auction sizes such as $58 billion in 3-year notes, $42 billion in 10-year notes, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds largely in line with previous quarters, and details around projected bill issuance and buyback operations. Treasury also outlined intentions to resume cash management buybacks and adjust TIPS reopening sizes modestly, reflecting ongoing efforts to manage liquidity and the issuance mix.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the finalized QRA shows higher-than-expected net issuance or a markedly larger supply of long-dated Treasuries, risk assets like equities could come under pressure as increased supply may lead to higher yields and tighter financial conditions. Conversely, a lower or flatter supply outlook relative to expectations could support equities by easing concerns about rising financing costs.
US Dollar
A QRA that signals substantial new supply, especially longer-term debt, could strengthen the US dollar if markets interpret higher issuance as attracting foreign demand for safe-haven assets at higher yields. Alternatively, a muted issuance plan could weigh on the dollar if it suggests less upward pressure on domestic yields.
US Government Bond Yields
If the preliminary roadmap implies much larger issuance than markets had assumed, yields may rise (prices fall) as investors demand higher compensation for the increased supply. If issuance is contained or skewed toward shorter maturities, yields could fall as supply pressure eases, particularly on the long end of the curve.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets currently expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in the near term, with limited bets on further tightening and some focus on future rate cuts later in 2026 if data soften.
A QRA outcome showing significantly higher debt issuance, especially at longer maturities, would challenge the softer-supply narrative priced into markets and potentially support higher longer-term yields  complicating the Fed’s outlook on financial conditions and raising the bar for future rate cuts. A more modest issuance plan, or one tilted toward short-dated bills, would reinforce existing expectations of contained supply pressure and align with the view that monetary policy can remain accommodative without adding yield curve stress.

Tuesday the 3rd of February
10:00 ET
US JOLTS Job Openings for December
The Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS), published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), tracks job openings, hires, and separations across the U.S. economy. The job openings figure reflects the number of positions that employers are actively trying to fill  a gauge of labour demand. Because it provides insight into the balance between labour demand and supply, JOLTS is a key indicator of labour market tightness and broader economic momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In November 2025, the JOLTS report showed job openings of 7.146 million, below economists’ expectations of around 7.61 million, indicating a softer labour demand picture and a continued cooling of the labour market. Openings were down from prior months, consistent with data showing slower hiring and a moderation in labour demand growth as some industries adjusted to weaker activity. The job openings rate also ticked lower, suggesting that labour demand was less robust than earlier in the year. For December 2025, markets will look for the latest JOLTS release (issued in early February) to gauge whether the moderation in job openings extends into year-end or shows signs of stabilisation.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If December job openings come in stronger than expected, particularly above the consensus forecast, risk sentiment, especially for consumer and cyclical sectors, could improve as stronger labour demand supports income and spending prospects. A weaker reading would likely weigh on cyclical and small-cap stocks by reinforcing concerns about slowing labour demand and potential economic deceleration.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected JOLTS reading would likely lend support to the US dollar, as stronger labour demand bolsters expectations for continued economic resilience. Conversely, a weaker report may pressure the dollar as labour market slack increases, reducing demand for dollar-denominated assets compared with other economies.
US Government Bond Yields
If job openings exceed expectations, Treasury yields could rise (prices fall) as markets price in firmer economic momentum and reduced odds of rapid monetary easing. If openings come in softer than forecast, yields could fall as investors seek safer assets amid signs of weaker labour demand.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are currently pricing a moderate, slowing U.S. labour market with the Federal Reserve expected to hold the policy rate steady in the near term and with some bets on eventual rate cuts later in 2026 if data continue to soften.
A stronger-than-expected JOLTS report, particularly showing an uptick in openings or stronger labour demand, would challenge the softer labour narrative priced into markets and could reinforce the view that the Fed can maintain a higher-for-longer policy stance by reducing the immediacy of rate cuts. A weaker outcome would bolster expectations for future monetary accommodation and strengthen the case for rate cuts later in 2026 if the labour market continues to show cooling momentum.

Wednesday the 4th of February
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for January
The ADP National Employment Report is a monthly estimate of private-sector employment changes in the United States, produced by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. It uses payroll data from millions of employees to offer an early and high-frequency snapshot of job creation trends in the private sector, often released a couple of days before the government’s official employment report and is watched as an early indicator of overall labour market momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In December 2025, U.S. private-sector employment increased by 41,000 jobs, signalling a modest rebound after a prior contraction and showing a continued slowdown in hiring compared with earlier months. Annual wages also rose, but overall job gains were relatively subdued, reflecting cautious hiring amid mixed economic conditions. Meanwhile, preliminary high-frequency ADP data for the four weeks ending January 3, 2026,  a proxy for early January employment trends,  showed an average of 7,750 jobs added per week, down from prior periods and pointing to a continued deceleration in private payroll growth.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the January ADP employment change exceeds expectations, broader equity markets, particularly sectors tied to consumer demand, could respond positively as stronger job creation supports income growth and spending. A weaker-than-expected print would likely dampen sentiment among cyclicals and small-caps as markets interpret softer hiring as a sign of slowing demand.
US Dollar
Stronger private employment growth would typically lend support to the US dollar by reinforcing the narrative of resilient economic activity, potentially strengthening inflows into dollar-denominated assets. In contrast, a softer ADP print could pressure the dollar as labour market slack increases and growth concerns rise.
US Government Bond Yields
If ADP employment data beats expectations, Treasury yields may rise (prices fall) as markets price in stronger labour market conditions and reduced near-term expectations for monetary easing. If the data undershoots forecasts, yields could fall as investors seek safety amid growing soft-growth concerns.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are widely positioned for the Federal Reserve to hold the policy rate steady in the near term, with limited bets on further tightening and some expectations of eventual rate cuts later in 2026 if data show sustained weakening in the labour market and inflation.
A stronger-than-expected ADP employment change, particularly one indicating sustained private-sector momentum, would challenge the softer labour narrative priced into markets and could reinforce confidence in a higher-for-longer policy stance, delaying expectations for rate cuts. Conversely, a weaker result would bolster the case for future monetary accommodation and strengthen market expectations for rate cuts later in the year if broader labour market data continues to indicate slowing momentum

08:30 ET
US Treasury QRA (Final)
The US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) is a quarterly statement issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury that lays out the government’s financing plans and debt issuance strategy for the upcoming quarter. It details expected Treasury borrowing needs, including auction sizes for bills, notes, bonds, TIPS, and other securities, and reflects the Treasury’s outlook on how to fund federal operations and manage debt structure. Because Treasury issuance directly affects the supply of government securities, the QRA influences Treasury markets, yields, financial conditions, and investor positioning.

Summary of Last Report (Final)
In the most recent QRA (Final), released in early November 2025, the Treasury formalised its quarterly refunding plan with schedules for auctions and financing estimates. The finalised documents showed financing estimates for the fourth quarter of 2025, including tables of auction sizes and planned issuance across maturities, and confirmed the Treasury’s strategy for managing debt and cash balances. Documentation also included the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) proposals and the finalised auction timetable for bills, notes, bonds, and plans to meet fiscal needs.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the final QRA reveals higher than expected net supply especially larger note and bond issuance U.S. equities may come under pressure as increased government debt supply could lead to higher yields and tighter financial conditions, which hurt risk assets. Conversely, a more modest issuance plan relative to expectations could calm market concerns, potentially supporting stocks through improved liquidity conditions.
US Dollar
A final QRA that signals a large upcoming Treasury issuance might strengthen the US dollar if markets expect higher yields on U.S. government debt relative to other currencies, attracting yield-seeking capital. If the issuance outlook is more measured or tilted to shorter maturities without expanding supply dramatically, dollar strength may be more muted.
US Government Bond Yields
A QRA showing a substantial supply of longer-dated Treasuries could push yields higher (prices lower) as investors demand more compensation for absorbing additional duration risk. If the QRA confirms steady or lower issuance, particularly at the long end, it could alleviate some supply pressure and help stabilise or even lower yields.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are currently positioned for the Federal Reserve to hold the policy rate steady in the near term, with limited bets on further tightening and growing expectations that rate cuts could be considered later in 2026 if economic data weaken.
A final QRA with higher Treasury issuance than expected would challenge the assumption of benign supply conditions factored into markets, potentially leading to higher long-term yields. That scenario could complicate the Fed’s outlook by tightening financial conditions independently, which may reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates soon. Conversely, a muted issuance plan or one framed around short-term bills could support the view that fiscal supply pressures are manageable, aligning with the market’s current expectation for a steady Fed policy path.

09:45 ET
US S&P Services PMI for January
The S&P Global US Services PMI is a monthly survey-based indicator compiled by S&P Global that measures business activity and conditions within the U.S. services sector, the largest component of the U.S. economy. A reading above 50 signals expansion compared to the prior month, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The index combines data on new business, output, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories to provide a timely gauge of service sector momentum.

Summary of Last Report
For January 2026, the S&P Global US Services PMI was reported at 52.5, holding roughly steady from recent months but below economists’ expectations of around 52.8, indicating modest expansion in services activity. Although the sector continues to grow, the pace of growth remains near an eight-month low, with new business inflows moderate and employment gains subdued, reflecting ongoing caution among service providers amid cost pressures and demand headwinds.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the January Services PMI comes in stronger than expected, especially above consensus or showing meaningful improvements in new business and output, U.S. equities, particularly consumer services and broader cyclicals, could benefit as this would signal resilient domestic demand. If the reading is weaker than forecast, stocks may underperform as markets interpret slowing service activity as a drag on overall economic momentum.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected services PMI would likely lend support to the US dollar, as it signals solid underlying economic activity and may reinforce confidence in the U.S. growth outlook. A softer reading could weigh on the dollar by reinforcing narratives of cooling activity relative to other economies.
US Government Bond Yields
If the report beats expectations, Treasury yields may rise (prices fall) as markets price in firmer growth and reduced near-term expectations for monetary easing. If the index undershoots forecasts, yields could fall as softer services activity supports safe-haven demand and expectations for looser monetary policy.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are currently pricing a steady Federal Reserve policy stance in the near term, with limited expectations for immediate rate tightening and a growing focus on whether cooling activity will justify eventual rate cuts later in 2026. A stronger-than-expected Services PMI would challenge the prevailing softer growth narrative priced into markets and reinforce the view that the Fed can maintain a higher-for-longer stance by reducing the immediacy of rate cuts. A weaker outcome would bolster expectations for monetary accommodation and strengthen market expectations for rate cuts later in the year if broader data continues to show slowing momentum

10:00 ET
US ISM Services PMI for January
The ISM Services PMI (also known as the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) is a monthly diffusion index from the Institute for Supply Management that measures activity in the U.S. services sector — the largest component of the U.S. economy. A reading above 50 signals expansion in services activity compared to the prior month, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The index blends data on business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries, offering a timely indicator of overall services sector health and demand conditions.

Summary of Last Report
In the December 2025 ISM Services release, the index rose to 54.4, up from 52.6 and well above the consensus, marking continued expansion in services activity. The strong reading reflected solid gains in business activity and new orders, and a broad improvement in service-sector conditions as activity and employment expanded, helping offset weakness in manufacturing. For January 2026, markets will look for the newest ISM non-manufacturing report (typically released in early February) to see if services activity continues to grow or shows signs of moderating.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If January’s ISM Services PMI comes in stronger than expected, especially with robust new orders and activity sub-indices, U.S. equities, particularly consumer services, retail, and broader cyclicals, could benefit, as it would signal firm demand and resilience in the services-driven portion of the economy. If the index is weaker than expected, stocks may soften as slower services activity would point to cooling domestic momentum.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected services PMI would likely support the US dollar by emphasising relative economic strength, which can underpin demand for dollar-denominated assets. A softer reading could weigh on the dollar as markets price in slowing activity and a more cautious growth outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
If the report exceeds expectations, Treasury yields may rise (prices fall) as markets anticipate stronger growth and reduce near-term expectations for monetary easing. If the PMI is below forecasts, yields could fall as investors pivot toward safe-haven assets amid signs of slower services sector momentum.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are largely positioned for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in the near term, with limited expectations for further tightening and a growing focus on whether signs of economic moderation may eventually prompt rate cuts later in 2026.
A stronger-than-expected ISM Services PMI, particularly if components like new orders and employment surprise to the upside, would challenge the view that services activity is slowing, reinforcing a higher-for-longer sentiment and decreasing the immediacy of expected rate cuts. A weaker outcome would bolster expectations for monetary accommodation and strengthen market anticipation of eventual rate cuts if broader economic data also signal softening momentum.

10:30 ET
Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories report — released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) measures the change in commercial crude oil stocks in the United States (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve). Because it reflects the balance between supply (production + imports) and demand (refining + exports), it provides a near-real-time indicator of supply/demand dynamics in the energy market and is widely watched by traders for its impact on oil prices and energy sector sentiment.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent EIA weekly report (for the week ending January 23, 2026), U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by about 2.3 million barrels, more than expectations of a smaller draw, as refinery inputs remained strong and supply/demand balances tightened. Stocks not including the SPR were reported at roughly 423.8 million barrels, down from 426.0 million barrels the prior week. This draw suggested modestly tighter crude supply despite broader seasonal volatility.

What to Expect
Energy Stocks & Oil Prices
Above expectations (larger draw or smaller build): If inventories show a larger draw than forecast, oil prices (WTI/Brent) could rise, and energy stocks, especially E&P and refiners, may outperform as markets interpret tighter supply or stronger demand as bullish.
Below expectations (build or smaller draw): If stocks unexpectedly increase or draw less than expected, oil prices could soften, and energy equities could lag as it signals weaker demand or oversupply.
Inflation/Commodity Sentiment
A larger-than-expected draw supports commodity inflation narratives by tightening crude balances, while a surprise build may ease commodity price pressures important for inflation expectations and broader risk sentiment.
Federal Reserve & Macro Policy
Current Market Sentiment: With markets currently balancing a mild inflation backdrop and mixed macro data, including labour market resilience and tepid growth, the Fed is widely expected to maintain a steady rate policy in the near term.
A larger-than-expected inventory draw would reinforce the idea of tighter supply and could bolster the inflation narrative, reducing pressure on the Fed to ease soon. Conversely, a weaker draw or unexpected build would support views of subdued demand and lower commodity inflation, aligning with expectations that the Fed may remain on hold or even consider rate cuts later in 2026 if broader data weakens.

Thursday the 5th of February
08:30 ET
Weekly US Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, released every Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor counts the number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time in the prior week. It’s one of the earliest and most timely indicators of labour market conditions, providing insight into layoffs and how labour demand is evolving week-to-week.

Summary of Last Report
For the week ending January 24, 2026, Initial Jobless Claims came in at 209,000, slightly below the prior week’s revised 210,000 but above consensus expectations of around 205,000, suggesting some ongoing labor market slowness amid broader cooling. The four-week moving average — which smooths weekly volatility — ticked up to around 206,250, and Continuing Claims (those receiving ongoing benefits) declined to approximately 1.83 million, the lowest since late 2024. Overall, despite headline volatility and some high-profile layoffs, claims remain relatively low by historical standards, pointing to a still stable labour market but with subdued job creation.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If jobless claims come in lower than expected (fewer new claims), equities, especially consumer and cyclically sensitive sectors, could see support as tighter labour market conditions suggest resilience in household income and spending. If claims rise unexpectedly, it could weigh on stocks by reinforcing signs of labour market softening and slower demand growth.
US Dollar
Lower-than-expected claims typically support the US dollar, as they signal stronger labour market momentum and can bolster expectations for sustained economic growth. A weaker print (higher claims) could temper dollar strength as markets price increased slack in the labour market.
US Government Bond Yields
If claims are below consensus, Treasury yields may rise (prices fall) as markets interpret stronger underlying labour conditions and brighter growth prospects. If claims exceed expectations, yields could fall as investors move into safer fixed income amid concerns over slower economic activity.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets currently expect the Fed to hold rates steady in the near term, with limited bets on further tightening and some anticipation of rate cuts later in 2026 if data continue to soften.
A significantly lower claims print would challenge the softer labour narrative and could reinforce the case for a higher-for-longer policy stance by reducing pressure on the Fed to cut rates soon. Conversely, a higher-than-expected increase in claims would bolster expectations that labour market slack is rising, strengthening the argument for eventual rate cuts if broader economic weakness persists.

Friday the 6th of February
08:30 ET
US Unemployment Rate for January
The U.S. Unemployment Rate, published monthly by the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS)  measures the percentage of the labour force that is actively seeking work but unable to find employment during the reference month. It is a core indicator of labour market health and economic slack, influencing consumer confidence, spending patterns, and monetary policy decisions.

Summary of Last Report
In January 2026, the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.0%, down from 4.4% in December, beating market expectations for a softer reading after subdued job growth. The drop reflected a continued tight labour market despite weak payroll gains, with hiring trends slowing but not enough to push the unemployment rate higher. This outcome is indicative of a still-resilient labour market backdrop even as broader economic activity shows signs of moderation.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the January unemployment rate prints lower (stronger labour market) than consensus, equity markets, especially consumer-oriented and cyclical sectors, could rally as a tight jobs picture supports household income and spending. If the rate comes in higher than expected, stocks may soften, particularly in economically sensitive sectors, as markets interpret rising joblessness as a sign of weakening growth.
US Dollar
A lower-than-expected unemployment rate would likely support the US dollar, reinforcing the narrative of labour market resilience and potentially boosting demand for dollar-denominated assets. A higher reading could dampen dollar strength as expectations for economic weakness rise.
US Government Bond Yields
If unemployment surprises on the downside (stronger labour market), Treasury yields may rise (prices fall) as markets price in firmer growth and reduced expectations of near-term monetary easing. Conversely, a higher-than-expected unemployment rate could push yields lower (prices rise) as traders increase safe-haven demand amid slowing labour conditions.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are currently pricing the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in the near term, with a modest probability of rate cuts later in 2026 if economic data soften further.
A lower-than-expected unemployment rate, reinforcing labour market strength, would challenge the prevailing softer growth narrative priced into markets and reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates soon, underpinning the case for a higher-for-longer stance. A higher unemployment rate would bolster expectations for potential future rate cuts by signalling increasing slack in the labour market and supporting the view that monetary easing may be needed later in 2026 to sustain growth.

US Nonfarm Payrolls for January
The Nonfarm Payrolls report, released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), measures the change in total employment across the economy, excluding farm workers, private household employees, and non-profit organisation workers. It is the most widely watched indicator of U.S. job creation, offering a key signal on labour market strength, income trends, and overall economic momentum that can influence consumer spending, business investment, and monetary policy.

Summary of Last Report
In December 2025, U.S. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 50,000, coming in below consensus expectations (~66,000), and reinforcing evidence of a moderating labour market with subdued job growth. Notably, payroll revisions for prior months were downwardly adjusted, and many states showed limited or flat employment gains. Despite slower job creation, the unemployment rate declined to 4.4%, reflecting a tighter labour market in terms of joblessness even as hiring softened. Wage growth remained modest.

For January 2026, markets are awaiting the latest BLS employment situation report, typically released on Friday, Feb 6, 2026, to see whether this soft hiring trend has continued or if labour conditions stabilise.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If January Nonfarm payrolls come in stronger than expected, equities, especially consumer-oriented and cyclical sectors, could rally as firmer job creation supports income and spending. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected print may weigh on stock markets as markets interpret slower hiring as a sign of slowing growth.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected jobs gain would likely support the US dollar by reinforcing expectations of resilient economic activity, which can underpin demand for dollar-denominated assets. A weaker payroll number could pressure the dollar as it would suggest softening labor market momentum and potentially slower growth.
US Government Bond Yields
If Nonfarm payrolls exceed forecasts, Treasury yields may rise (prices fall) as markets price in stronger growth and potentially reduce expectations for near-term rate cuts. If the report undershoots expectations, yields could fall as bond markets shift toward safe-haven demand amid signs of soft economic conditions.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are currently pricing the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in the near term, with limited bets on further tightening and some expectations of rate cuts later in 2026 if data continue to soften.
A stronger-than-expected jobs report, particularly one that shows broad gains across industries, would challenge the softer labour market narrative priced into markets and reduce pressure on the Fed to enact rate cuts soon, reinforcing a higher-for-longer stance on policy. A weaker result would bolster expectations for monetary accommodation and strengthen the case for rate cuts later in the year if broader economic weakness persists.

US Average Earnings YoY for January
The Average Hourly Earnings Year-over-Year (YoY) figure, part of the U.S. Employment Situation Report published by the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) measures how much average hourly earnings for all employees have changed compared to the same month one year earlier. It’s a key indicator of wage inflation and labour market tightness, helping to gauge consumer income growth, inflation pressures, and broader economic momentum.

Summary of Last Report 
In December 2025, average hourly earnings for all employees rose about 3.8% year-over-year, slightly above market expectations and reflective of persistent wage growth despite evidence of a slowing labour market. The increase reflected continuing upward pressure on wages even as job gains weakened, and contributed to moderate inflation dynamics.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the January average earnings YoY comes in stronger than expected, particularly above consensus forecasts, U.S. equities, especially consumer and financial sectors, could react positively as higher wages support household income and consumer spending. A weaker-than-expected reading could weigh on markets by signalling softer domestic demand and slower wage-driven economic momentum.
US Dollar
Stronger-than-expected wage growth tends to support the US dollar because it reinforces inflation pressures and signals resilient domestic demand, which can attract capital flows into dollar-denominated assets. A softer wage growth print could put downward pressure on the dollar as markets price in slower growth and reduced inflation momentum.
US Government Bond Yields
If average earnings exceed expectations, Treasury yields may rise (prices fall) as investors anticipate stronger growth and inflation pressures, reducing expectations for near-term monetary easing. Conversely, if wage growth is softer than expected, yields could fall as markets price in weaker growth and heightened demand for safe-haven assets.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are currently positioned for the Federal Reserve to hold the policy rate steady in the near term, with limited bets on further tightening and some expectations for rate cuts later in 2026 if broader data soften.
A stronger-than-expected average earnings print would challenge the prevailing softer inflation narrative priced into markets and could delay expectations for Fed rate cuts, reinforcing a higher-for-longer policy stance as persistent wage inflation complicates the inflation outlook. A weaker earnings outcome would bolster expectations that inflationary pressures are easing, strengthening the case for rate cuts later in the year if other data continue to soften.

Canadian Unemployment Rate for January
The Unemployment Rate in Canada, published monthly by Statistics Canada as part of its Labour Force Survey, measures the percentage of Canadians in the labour force who are actively seeking work but currently unemployed. It is a core gauge of labour market slack and economic health, directly influencing consumer confidence, spending, and monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Canada.

Summary of Last Report
In December 2025, Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.8%, up from 6.5% the prior month, as more people re-entered the labour force and job gains remained modest. Total employment was essentially unchanged with a small net increase of around 8,200 jobs, suggesting that labour market momentum had cooled after earlier gains. Youth unemployment and participation shifts contributed to the uptick in the jobless rate. For January 2026, the official unemployment rate will be reported in the upcoming Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey release (typically early February). Markets will be watching whether the December trend of a softening labour market extended into January or if there was stabilisation.

What to Expect
Canada Stocks
If the January unemployment rate comes in lower than expected, indicating a tighter labour market, Canadian equities, particularly the consumer and financial sectors, could react positively as firmer jobs data would support household income and spending prospects. If the rate comes in higher than expected, equities may come under pressure on renewed concerns about weaker domestic momentum and consumer demand.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
A lower-than-expected unemployment rate would likely strengthen the CAD, as it would signal a resilient labour market and could support expectations of relatively steadier monetary conditions. A higher reading would tend to weaken the Canadian dollar by suggesting softer labour demand and slower growth.
Government of Canada Bond Yields
If the unemployment rate undershoots forecasts, yields on Government of Canada bonds could rise (prices fall) as markets price in firmer economic conditions. If the jobless rate overshoots expectations, yields may fall (prices rise) as investors seek safety amid signs of labour market slack.
Bank of Canada Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are currently positioned for the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate steady at recent levels, with muted expectations for near-term changes given mixed growth signals and inflation nearer target.
A lower-than-expected unemployment rate — pointing to a tighter labour market — would challenge the softer growth narrative currently priced into markets and could diminish expectations of imminent rate cuts, reinforcing the case for a “higher-for-longer” policy stance. In contrast, a higher-than-expected jobless rate would bolster expectations that economic slack is increasing, strengthening the argument for potential monetary accommodation or rate cuts later in 2026 if broader data continue to soften.

Canadian Employment Change for January
Employment Change in Canada, published monthly by Statistics Canada as part of the Labour Force Survey, measures the change in the number of employed people compared with the prior month. It provides insight into labour market momentum, reflecting shifts in hiring, layoffs, and economic conditions that influence consumer spending and overall growth.

Summary of Last Report
In December 2025, Canadian employment growth remained modest, with the economy adding about 8,200 jobs, exceeding expectations for a slight decline and following several months of outsized gains earlier in the year. Full-time jobs rose while part-time positions declined, and sectors such as health care and social assistance saw the largest gains. Despite job growth, the unemployment rate rose to 6.8% as more Canadians looked for work, indicating some slack in the labour market. For January 2026, the official employment change figure will be released by Statistics Canada (typically in early February). Consensus and model forecasts suggested a modest gain or slight decline, reflecting lingering labour market cooling.

What to Expect
Canada Stocks
If January employment comes in stronger than expected, with a meaningful increase in payrolls, Canadian equities, particularly consumer-oriented and financial sectors, could benefit as stronger job creation supports household income and spending. If the employment change undershoots expectations or shows a decline, equity markets may soften on concerns about weaker labour demand and slower economic growth.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Stronger employment gains than expected would likely strengthen the Canadian dollar by signalling resilient labour market conditions, which can support tighter monetary expectations. A weaker employment outcome could pressure the CAD as markets price in a softer growth outlook and increased slack in the labour market.
Government of Canada Bond Yields
If employment surprises on the upside, yields on Government of Canada bonds could rise (prices fall) as markets price in stronger economic momentum. If the data are weaker than expected, yields might fall as investors shift toward safety amid signs of slowing labour demand.
Bank of Canada Policy
Current Market Sentiment: Markets are currently positioned for the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate steady in the near term, with limited near-term moves priced in and a focus on broader growth and inflation data. A stronger-than-expected employment gain would challenge the softer employment narrative priced into markets and reduce pressure on the BoC to ease policy soon, reinforcing a higher-for-longer stance. In contrast, a weaker employment change, particularly a contraction or negligible net gain, would bolster expectations for potential future monetary accommodation or rate cuts later in 2026 if broader data continues to soften.

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University of Michigan Sentiment Prelim for February
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) is an early-month release of the widely followed monthly survey of U.S. households conducted by the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. It captures consumers’ perceptions of current economic conditions and their expectations for the future, including income, employment prospects, business conditions, and inflation. Because consumer sentiment can influence spending and saving decisions, this preliminary reading provides an early gauge of household confidence and spending trends ahead of other economic indicators.

Summary of Last Report 
In January 2026, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rebounded modestly to 56.4, above preliminary expectations and higher than December’s 52.9, marking the highest reading in several months but still significantly below year-ago levels amid ongoing consumer concerns about prices and labour market slack. Gains were broad across income, age, and demographic groups, though sentiment remained muted relative to past trends. Overall, the improvement suggested some stabilisation in consumer perceptions after prior weakness.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the preliminary February sentiment reading beats expectations, it could support U.S. equities, particularly consumer-oriented sectors, by reinforcing the narrative that household demand and confidence remain resilient. If sentiment comes in weaker than expected, it may weigh on consumer-sensitive sectors as softer confidence tends to correlate with slower spending.
US Dollar
Stronger consumer sentiment than forecast would likely lend support to the US dollar, as it signals durable domestic demand and well-being factors that can buoy the currency. A softer reading could temper dollar strength as investors price in weaker confidence and slower economic momentum.
US Government Bond Yields
If sentiment unexpectedly rises, yields may climb (prices fall) as markets factor in more solid domestic demand and less need for imminent monetary accommodation. If sentiment undershoots expectations, yields could fall as markets shift toward safety amid softer growth prospects.
Federal Reserve Policy
Current Market Sentiment: At present, markets are pricing a steady Federal Reserve policy stance with limited bets on further tightening and some expectations for eventual rate cuts later in 2026 should economic data soften.
A stronger-than-expected preliminary sentiment would challenge the softer demand narrative priced into markets and could reinforce a higher-for-longer view by suggesting households are more confident about their financial situations and the economic outlook. Conversely, a weaker sentiment print would bolster expectations that consumer demand remains fragile, strengthening the case for future monetary accommodation if broader data continue to signal slowing growth and persistent slack.