Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 9th – 13th February (US)

Monday 9th February
No noteworthy economic indicators.

Tuesday 10th February
08:30 ET
US Retail Sales for December
The Retail Sales report, published monthly by the US Census Bureau, measures the change in total receipts at retail stores, food services, and online merchants. It is one of the most important indicators of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP. Because the data are reported in nominal terms, the release reflects both changes in demand and price effects.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (November), retail sales rose modestly, indicating that consumer spending remained resilient despite elevated interest rates and easing excess savings. Core categories showed steady but slower growth, suggesting demand was cooling but not contracting. Discretionary spending softened, while essential and services-related categories were more stable. Overall, the data pointed to moderating but still supportive consumption heading into December.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected December reading could lift equities, particularly consumer discretionary and retail stocks, by reinforcing confidence in household demand and earnings growth.
A weaker-than-expected print may weigh on stocks, especially cyclical and retail names, as it signals slowing consumer momentum.
US Dollar
Firm retail sales data tend to support the dollar, as resilient consumption reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
Soft sales figures may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger sales can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and potential inflation persistence.
Weaker sales generally lead to lower yields, as markets price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Robust retail sales would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak print strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, as cooler consumer demand is an early signal of economic deceleration.

Wednesday 11th February
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for January
The US Employment Situation report, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), provides the most comprehensive snapshot of labour-market conditions. Key components include Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), measuring net job creation; the Unemployment Rate, reflecting labour-market slack; and Average Earnings, which gauge wage growth and potential inflation pressures. This release is one of the most market-moving data points each month.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (December), payroll growth moderated, indicating slower but still positive hiring momentum. The unemployment rate held steady to slightly higher, suggesting a gradual loosening in labour-market conditions. Average earnings growth softened, pointing to easing wage pressures and reduced upside risk to inflation. Overall, the data signaled a labour market that remained resilient but was cooling gradually into the new year.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected report, solid job gains, stable unemployment, and firm wage growth, could support equities by reinforcing confidence in economic resilience and earnings growth.
A weaker-than-expected outcome may weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors, as it signals slowing demand and softer income growth.
US Dollar
A robust jobs report typically supports the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A soft report may pressure the dollar, with markets pricing in slower growth and a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in payrolls or wages could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth and inflation expectations.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors anticipate slower activity and increased odds of rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm labour report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak report, particularly rising unemployment or slowing wage growth, strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack builds.

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report, published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), measures the change in US commercial crude oil stockpiles, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It is a key short-term indicator for oil markets, reflecting shifts in supply, demand, imports, exports, and refinery activity. Larger-than-expected builds are typically bearish for crude prices, while larger-than-expected draws are bullish.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report, US crude inventories recorded a draw, coming in below the prior week’s levels and exceeding market expectations. The decline was driven by firmer refinery utilization and reduced net imports, indicating tighter near-term supply conditions. The data provided near-term support for crude prices amid ongoing volatility in inventory trends.

What to Expect
Energy Stocks
A larger-than-expected draw would likely support energy equities, particularly exploration and production companies, as higher crude prices improve revenue and cash-flow expectations.
A surprise build could weigh on energy stocks, especially those most sensitive to short-term oil-price movements.
Oil Prices
A bullish inventory draw typically pushes oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of tighter supply or stronger demand.
A bearish build generally pressures oil prices lower, signaling excess supply or softer demand conditions.
Broader Implications
While this release primarily impacts oil and energy markets, sustained trends in crude inventories can influence inflation expectations via fuel prices. Persistent draws may add mild inflationary pressure, while repeated builds can contribute to a more disinflationary backdrop.

Thursday 12th February
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, offering a timely snapshot of layoff activity. Continued Jobless Claims track the number of people who remain on unemployment benefits after their initial claim, providing insight into unemployment duration and underlying labour-market slack. Together, these weekly releases are closely watched for early signals of shifts in labour-market momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous week’s report, initial jobless claims remained relatively low and stable, indicating that layoffs continued to be contained. Continued claims edged higher, suggesting unemployed workers are taking longer to find new jobs. Overall, the data pointed to a gradual cooling in labour-market conditions, rather than a sharp deterioration.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims would likely support equities by reinforcing confidence in labour-market resilience and consumer spending.
Higher-than-expected claims, particularly a further rise in continued claims, could weigh on stocks, especially cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors.
US Dollar
A strong labour-market signal (lower claims) typically supports the US dollar, reducing expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A weaker reading (higher claims) may pressure the dollar, as markets lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Lower claims can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Higher claims generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm claims report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A soft report, especially rising continued claims, strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack builds.

Friday 13th February
08:30 ET
US CPI for January
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures changes in prices paid by consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services. It is one of the most important inflation indicators for markets, shaping interest-rate expectations, financial conditions, and Federal Reserve policy. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is especially closely watched for signals on underlying inflation trends.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (December), headline CPI eased modestly, while core inflation remained sticky, reflecting persistent price pressures in services-related categories. Shelter costs continued to be the largest contributor, though the pace of increase showed gradual moderation. Goods prices were subdued, helping offset firmer services inflation. Overall, the data suggested continued but uneven progress on disinflation, with inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A cooler-than-expected January CPI print could support equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary, as it strengthens expectations for policy easing.
A hotter-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks, tightening financial conditions and raising concerns about prolonged restrictive policy.
US Dollar
Stronger inflation data typically supports the US dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.
A softer CPI print may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher-than-expected inflation would likely push yields higher, reflecting delayed rate-cut expectations and persistent inflation risk.
Lower inflation readings generally lead to lower yields, as markets price in easing and reduced inflation pressure.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm January CPI, especially in core services, would reinforce a higher-for-longer stance, encouraging the Fed to remain cautious about easing.
A softer inflation profile would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, increasing confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward target.