Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 16th – 20th February (US)

Monday 16th February
US Holiday: President’s Day [US Exchanges Closed]
No noteworthy economic indicators.

Tuesday 17th February
08:30 ET
Canadian CPI for January
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published monthly by Statistics Canada, measures changes in prices paid by consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services. It is Canada’s primary inflation gauge and a key driver of Bank of Canada (BoC) policy decisions. Core CPI measures (such as CPI-trim and CPI-median) are closely watched to assess underlying inflation trends beyond volatile components.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (December), headline CPI eased modestly, reflecting softer price pressures in goods and some energy-related components. Core inflation measures continued to cool gradually, suggesting underlying inflation momentum was easing, though shelter costs remained elevated and the largest contributor to overall inflation. Overall, the data pointed to continued progress on disinflation, albeit uneven across categories.

What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
A softer-than-expected CPI print could support equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors such as financials, real estate, and consumer discretionary, as easing inflation improves the outlook for borrowing costs.
A hotter-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks by raising concerns that inflation remains too persistent for policy easing.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
A stronger CPI outcome would likely support the CAD, as higher inflation reduces the likelihood of near-term BoC easing.
A softer CPI print may pressure the CAD, reinforcing expectations for a more dovish policy outlook.
Canadian Government Bond Yields
Higher-than-expected inflation could push yields higher, as markets price in a higher-for-longer rate path.
Lower inflation readings generally lead to lower yields, reflecting increased confidence in easing inflation pressures and potential rate cuts.
Bank of Canada Policy
A firm CPI report would reduce pressure on the BoC to cut rates, supporting a hold or cautious stance as policymakers seek confirmation that inflation is sustainably returning to target.
A softer CPI print strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if core measures continue to trend lower.

Wednesday 18th February
08:30 ET
US Durable Goods December Prelim
The Durable Goods Orders report, published monthly by the US Census Bureau, measures new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for long-lasting goods (items expected to last three years or more), such as machinery, vehicles, and aircraft. It is a key indicator of business investment and manufacturing demand. Core durable goods, excluding transportation, and non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft are especially important for assessing underlying investment momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (November), durable goods orders declined, driven primarily by weakness in transportation equipment, particularly aircraft. Excluding transportation, orders were more stable, suggesting underlying demand held up better than the headline implied. Core capital goods orders were mixed, pointing to cautious business investment amid tighter financial conditions and uncertain demand.
Overall, the data indicated that while headline volatility remained elevated, underlying capital spending momentum had softened.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected print, especially in core and capital goods orders, could lift equities, particularly industrial and manufacturing-linked stocks, by signaling firmer investment demand.
A weaker-than-expected reading may weigh on cyclical stocks, reinforcing concerns about slowing capital expenditure.
US Dollar
Upside surprises in durable goods, particularly outside transportation, tend to support the dollar by reinforcing confidence in US growth.
A softer report may pressure the dollar, as weaker investment demand strengthens expectations for a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger orders can push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and reduced demand for safe-haven assets.
Weaker readings generally lead to lower yields, as markets price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Firm durable goods and capital goods orders would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak report, particularly in core capital goods, strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, as slowing investment signals cooling economic momentum.

09:15 ET
US Industrial Production for January
The Industrial Production (IP) index, published monthly by the Federal Reserve, measures real output from the US manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. It is a key gauge of industrial activity and overall economic momentum, offering insight into demand conditions, capacity pressures, and implications for monetary policy.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (December), industrial production declined modestly, reflecting continued softness in manufacturing output. Mining activity provided limited support, while utilities output was mixed due to seasonal and weather-related factors. Capacity utilization edged lower, indicating easing pressure on productive resources and a gradual cooling in industrial momentum.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If industrial production beats expectations, equities, particularly industrials and cyclical stocks, may benefit as stronger output signals healthier demand and earnings prospects.
A weaker-than-expected print could weigh on stocks, especially manufacturing- and materials-linked names, as growth concerns intensify.
US Dollar
Stronger production data typically supports the dollar, reinforcing confidence in US economic resilience and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A softer reading may pressure the dollar, as markets lean toward slower growth and a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
An upside surprise could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
A downside surprise would likely lead to lower yields, as investors price in weaker activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A robust industrial production print would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak reading would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if accompanied by softness in other growth indicators.

14:00 ET
FOMC Meeting Minutes
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes provide a detailed record of the discussions and debates that took place at the Fed’s most recent policy meeting. While they do not introduce new policy decisions, the minutes offer valuable insight into how policymakers are interpreting inflation trends, labour-market conditions, growth risks, and the likely future path of interest rates.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous minutes release, officials broadly agreed that inflation was continuing to ease but remained above the Fed’s 2% target, requiring a cautious approach to policy. Policymakers noted signs of gradual cooling in the labour market, including slower hiring and reduced job openings, while emphasizing that economic activity remained resilient overall.
The discussion reflected a more balanced assessment of risks, with some participants highlighting the danger of overtightening, while others stressed the need to keep policy restrictive until inflation is clearly on a sustainable path lower. Overall, the minutes reinforced a data-dependent and patient approach moving forward.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the minutes are interpreted as more dovish, emphasizing downside growth risks and openness to easing, equities may react positively, particularly rate-sensitive sectors.
A more hawkish tone, stressing inflation persistence and the need to keep rates higher for longer, could weigh on stocks by tightening financial conditions.
US Dollar
Dovish minutes would likely pressure the dollar, as markets price in a lower future rate path.
Hawkish signals may support the dollar, reinforcing expectations that US rates will remain restrictive for longer.
US Government Bond Yields
If the minutes highlight easing inflation and rising growth risks, yields may fall, particularly at the front end, as expectations for rate cuts increase.
If inflation risks dominate the discussion, yields could rise, reflecting a more restrictive policy outlook.
Federal Reserve Policy
The minutes may shape expectations around the timing and pace of future rate cuts, clarifying how close the Fed believes it is to shifting toward accommodation.
A cautious but balanced tone would reinforce the Fed’s commitment to remaining data-dependent, while any emphasis on inflation risks would suggest policy will stay restrictive for longer.

Thursday 19th February
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, offering a timely snapshot of layoff activity. Continued Jobless Claims track the number of people who remain on unemployment benefits after their initial claim, providing insight into unemployment duration and underlying labour-market slack. Together, these weekly releases are closely watched for early signals of shifts in labour-market momentum.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims would likely support equities by reinforcing confidence in labour-market resilience and consumer spending.
Higher-than-expected claims, particularly a further rise in continued claims, could weigh on stocks, especially cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors.
US Dollar
A strong labour-market signal (lower claims) typically supports the US dollar, reducing expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A weaker reading (higher claims) may pressure the dollar, as markets lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Lower claims can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Higher claims generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm claims report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A soft report, especially rising continued claims, strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack builds.

08:30 ET
US Trade Balance for December
The US Trade Balance measures the monthly difference between exports and imports of goods and services. A trade deficit occurs when imports exceed exports, while a surplus indicates the opposite. The release is an important input for GDP calculations, currency flows, and assessments of global demand for US goods and services.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (November), the US trade deficit widened modestly, reflecting stronger import demand alongside softer export growth. Goods trade remained the primary driver of the deficit, while the services surplus continued to provide a partial offset. Overall, the data suggested that net exports were a mild drag on growth, with domestic demand outpacing foreign demand for US output.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the December trade deficit narrows more than expected, equities, particularly exporters and industrials, may benefit as it signals firmer external demand or easing import pressures.
A wider-than-expected deficit could weigh on trade-sensitive stocks and reinforce concerns about global demand softness.
US Dollar
A smaller deficit typically supports the dollar, as improved external balances increase net demand for US currency.
A wider deficit may pressure the dollar, reflecting weaker trade fundamentals and reduced foreign demand for US goods and services.
US Government Bond Yields
An improving trade balance could push yields higher, as stronger net exports support growth expectations.
A deteriorating balance may pull yields lower, as markets price in slower growth and increased downside risks.
Federal Reserve Policy
A narrowing deficit modestly supports the growth outlook and may reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy.
A widening deficit strengthens the case for a more accommodative stance if weaker net exports contribute to broader economic slowing.

12:00 ET
US EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories
The Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report, published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), measures the change in US commercial crude oil stockpiles, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It is a key short-term indicator for oil markets, reflecting shifts in supply, demand, imports, exports, and refinery activity. Larger-than-expected builds are typically bearish for crude prices, while larger-than-expected draws are bullish.

What to Expect
Energy Stocks
A larger-than-expected draw would likely support energy equities, particularly exploration and production companies, as higher crude prices improve revenue and cash-flow expectations.
A surprise build could weigh on energy stocks, especially those most sensitive to short-term oil-price movements.
Oil Prices
A bullish inventory draw typically pushes oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of tighter supply or stronger demand.
A bearish build generally pressures oil prices lower, signaling excess supply or softer demand conditions.
Broader Implications
While this release primarily impacts oil and energy markets, sustained trends in crude inventories can influence inflation expectations via fuel prices. Persistent draws may add mild inflationary pressure, while repeated builds can contribute to a more disinflationary backdrop.

Friday 20th February
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index for December
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, published monthly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures changes in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. It is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge due to its broader coverage and ability to adjust for changes in consumer behavior. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is especially important for assessing underlying inflation trends and guiding monetary policy.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (November), headline PCE inflation eased modestly, while core PCE remained relatively sticky, highlighting ongoing persistence in underlying price pressures. Monthly inflation gains slowed compared with earlier in the year, but services inflation, particularly housing- and labor-intensive categories, continued to run firmer. Overall, the data signaled continued but gradual progress on disinflation, with inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A cooler-than-expected December PCE print could support equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary, as it strengthens expectations for interest-rate cuts.
A hotter-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks, tightening financial conditions and raising concerns about prolonged restrictive policy.
US Dollar
Stronger inflation data typically supports the US dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A softer PCE print may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher-than-expected PCE inflation would likely push yields higher, reflecting delayed rate-cut expectations and persistent inflation risk.
Lower inflation readings generally lead to lower yields, as markets price in easing and reduced inflation pressure.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm core PCE reading would reinforce a higher-for-longer stance, encouraging the Fed to remain cautious about easing.
A softer inflation profile would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, increasing confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward target.

08:30 ET
US GDP Q4 Advance
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), measures the total value of goods and services produced in the US economy. The quarter-on-quarter (annualised) GDP figure is the broadest indicator of economic growth. The advance estimate is the first and most market-moving GDP release, offering an early snapshot of quarterly momentum before later revisions incorporate more complete data.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (Q3 Final), US GDP growth was confirmed at 4.4% annualised, slightly above expectations (Forecast: 4.3%, Previous: 4.3%). The final reading reflected continued strength in consumer spending, alongside steady contributions from government outlays. Business investment was mixed, while trade and inventories played a smaller role. Overall, the data reinforced the view that the US economy maintained solid momentum through Q3 despite restrictive financial conditions.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If Q4 GDP beats expectations, equities, particularly cyclical and growth-sensitive sectors, may benefit as stronger activity supports earnings expectations.
A weaker-than-expected print could weigh on stocks, raising concerns about slowing momentum heading into the new year.
US Dollar
An upside surprise in GDP would likely support the dollar, reinforcing confidence in US economic resilience and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A downside surprise may pressure the dollar, as markets reassess growth prospects and lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger-than-expected growth could push yields higher, as investors price in firmer activity and potentially more persistent inflation pressures.
Weaker growth would likely lead to lower yields, reflecting softer economic momentum and increased demand for safe-haven assets.
Federal Reserve Policy
A strong Q4 GDP print would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak advance estimate would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if consumption or investment shows meaningful slowing.

09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing & Services PMI February Prelim
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys provide an early monthly snapshot of US private-sector activity.
The Manufacturing PMI tracks output, new orders, employment, inventories, and supply-chain conditions.
The Services PMI measures business activity, demand, employment, and pricing trends across the services sector.
Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while below 50 signal contraction. As preliminary releases, these PMIs are among the earliest indicators of monthly economic momentum and inflation pressures.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January Final), the Manufacturing PMI remained soft, hovering near the contraction threshold as new orders and output showed limited momentum. Cost pressures eased modestly, suggesting some relief on the inflation front.
The Services PMI remained in expansion, supported by steady demand and resilient business activity, though employment growth was cautious. Overall, the data pointed to a divergent economy, with manufacturing lagging while services continued to underpin growth.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If both PMIs surprise to the upside, equities, particularly cyclicals and service-oriented sectors, may benefit as stronger activity supports earnings expectations.
Weaker-than-expected readings, especially if services soften meaningfully, could weigh on stocks by raising concerns about slowing economic momentum.
US Dollar
Stronger PMI data typically supports the dollar, reinforcing confidence in US growth and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
Softer readings may pressure the dollar, as markets lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in PMIs could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and persistent inflation risks.
Weaker PMIs generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Resilient PMI data, particularly in services, would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates and support a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
Broad-based weakness across both manufacturing and services would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path as growth risks increase.

10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey & Inflation Expectations February Final
The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers measures US household sentiment toward personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions. It also tracks inflation expectations over the 1-year and 5–10 year horizons. The final release incorporates additional survey responses beyond the preliminary reading and provides a more complete view of consumer psychology, which can influence spending behavior and Federal Reserve policy considerations.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (February Preliminary), consumer sentiment improved modestly, driven by a slight pickup in expectations even as views on current conditions remained cautious. Households reported marginally better confidence in the economic outlook, though sentiment levels stayed below long-run averages.
Inflation expectations were mixed to slightly lower, with 1-year expectations easing, signaling reduced near-term price concerns, while long-run expectations remained stable, suggesting inflation credibility was largely intact. Overall, the preliminary data pointed to gradual improvement in confidence alongside easing inflation anxiety.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the final reading confirms stronger sentiment or shows further easing in inflation expectations, equities, particularly consumer discretionary and retail stocks, may benefit as confidence supports spending outlooks.
A downward revision to sentiment or an uptick in inflation expectations could weigh on stocks by signaling more cautious consumers.
US Dollar
Improving sentiment may support the dollar if it signals firmer growth momentum.
Lower inflation expectations may pressure the dollar, as they reinforce expectations for a more dovish Federal Reserve policy path.
US Government Bond Yields
Further declines in inflation expectations would likely push yields lower, reflecting reduced inflation risk and increased odds of policy easing.
Stronger sentiment or rising inflation expectations could push yields higher, as markets price in improved growth prospects or renewed inflation concerns.
Federal Reserve Policy
Confirmation of easing inflation expectations would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy outlook over time.
If inflation expectations rise or sentiment weakens meaningfully, the Fed may adopt a more cautious stance, keeping policy restrictive for longer to guard against renewed inflation pressures.