Morning Juice – US Session Prep (19th February)

Sentiment
A rebound in US equities faded as rising tensions between Washington and Tehran weighed on risk sentiment. S&P 500 futures reversed earlier gains to fall 0.3%, pressured after the head of the UN nuclear agency warned that Iran’s window for a diplomatic deal is narrowing. Oil extended its advance, with Brent climbing above $71 a barrel and WTI near $66.

Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.4% as technology shares came under renewed pressure, with most of the Magnificent Seven weaker in premarket trade and a software ETF also retreating. Gold gave back a push above $5,000 an ounce, Treasuries extended losses, and the dollar was little changed.

The latest geopolitical flare-up adds to an already fragile backdrop, as investors question the durability of the AI-led rally and whether elevated capital spending will justify valuations. In Europe, stocks pulled back from record highs during a heavy earnings session, with Airbus dropping 7% after softer delivery guidance.

Docket
08:30 ET
US Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial Claims – Forecast: 225k | Prior: 227k | Range: 235k / 204k
Continued Claims – Forecast: 1.86M | Prior: 1.862M | Range: 1.88M / 1.85M

08:30 ET
US Trade Balance for December
Forecast: -$55.5B | Prior: -$56.8B | Range: -$46.8B / -$87B

12:00 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: 1.65M | Prior: 8.53M | Range: 2.395M / -3M

13:00 ET
US sells $9 bln 30-Year TIPS
Prior High Yield: 2.65%
Prior Bid-to-cover: 2.78

Speakers
08:20 ET
Fed’s Bostic gives opening remarks at the Banking Outlook Conference.
Text: No. Q&A: No.

08:30 ET
Fed’s Bowman delivers recorded opening remarks at 2026 Banking Outlook Conference.
Text: Yes. Q&A: No.

09:00 ET
Fed’s Kashkari speaks at the Midwest Economic Outlook Summit Red River Valley Fair Grounds.
Text: No. Q&A: Yes, moderator

09:00 ET
Trump at the Board of Peace Event

10:30 ET
Fed’s Goolsbee gives opening remarks at conference on financial crises, in conjuntion with Yale Program on Financial Stability, Chicago Fed.
Text: TBD. Q&A: TBD.

13:50 ET
Trump visits a Local Business

14:30 ET`
Trump participates in a Podcast Interview

15:30 ET
Trump participates in a Factory Tour

16:00 ET
Trump Speaks on the Economy

Good luck!