Morning Juice – US Session Prep (20th February)
Sentiment
Stocks struggled to find clear direction as investors balanced escalating Middle East tensions against a heavy slate of US economic data. S&P 500 futures gave back an earlier 0.4% advance after Thursday’s selloff, while the dollar headed for its strongest week since November. Gold held above $5,000 an ounce.
Oil prices eased from recent highs, with Brent slipping toward $71 a barrel and trimming its weekly gains. Despite the US deploying additional forces to the region and pressure building on Tehran over its nuclear program, traders noted that geopolitical risks have so far had only a limited and short-lived impact on broader markets.
In Europe, UK gilts outperformed after Britain posted a record budget surplus, helped by stronger capital gains tax receipts and lower debt payments. European equities remained on track for a fourth straight week of gains, led by luxury stocks such as Moncler, which surged on upbeat earnings.
Docket
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index for December
YoY – Forecast: 2.8% | Prior: 2.8% | Range: 2.9% / 2.6%
MoM – Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.2% | Range: 0.4% / 0.2%
Core YoY – Forecast: 2.9% | Prior: 2.8% | Range: 3.1% / 2.7%
Core MoM – Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.2% | Range: 0.4% / 0%
Consumer Spending – Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.5% | Range: 0.5% / 0.1%
08:30 ET
US GDP Q4 Advance
GDP QoQ – Forecast: 3% | Prior: 4.4% | Range: 4.2% / 1.5%
Price Index QoQ – Forecast: 2.8% | Prior: 3.8% | Range: 3.7% / 2%
Core PCE QoQ – Forecast: 2.6% | Prior: 2.9% | Range: 2.8% / 2.3%
08:30 ET
Canadian Retail Sales for December
MoM – Forecast: -0.5% | Prior: 1.3% | Range: 0.3% / -0.5%
09:45 ET
US S&P PMI February Prelim
Manufacturing – Forecast: 52.3 | Prior: 52.4 | Range: 53.1 / 51.5
Services – Forecast: 53 | Prior: 52.7 | Range: 53.5 / 52
10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey February Prelim
Sentiment – Forecast: 57.2 | Prior: 57.3 | Range: 58 / 53.8
1-Year Inflation – Forecast: 3.5% | Prior: 3.5% | Range: 4.2% / 3.4%
5-Year Inflation – Forecast: 3.4% | Prior: 3.4% | Range: 3.4% / 3.3%
Speakers
09:30 ET
Trump participates in a Working Breakfast with Governors
09:45 ET
Fed’s Bostic participates in a moderated discussion with the editor of the Birmingham Business Journal.
Text: No. Q&A: Yes, moderator.
12:45 ET
Fed’s Logan speaks at the Columbia SIPA and Bank Policy Institute’s 2026 Research Conference on Bank Regulation.
Text: No. Q&A: Yes, moderator & audience.
Good luck, and have a good weekend!
