Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 23rd – 27th February (US)
Monday 23rd February
10:00 ET
US Factory Orders for December
Factory Orders, published monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, measure the dollar value of new orders for manufactured goods. The report covers both durable and nondurable goods, providing a broad view of demand across the manufacturing sector. It is a useful indicator for confirming trends in industrial activity and business investment, particularly following the durable goods release.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (November), factory orders declined modestly, reflecting softer demand for manufactured goods. Weakness was driven primarily by durable goods orders, while nondurable goods showed more stability. Overall, the report pointed to cooling manufacturing demand, consistent with a slower pace of industrial momentum amid tighter financial conditions.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected factory orders print could lift equities — particularly industrial and manufacturing-linked stocks — by signaling firmer demand and improved earnings visibility.
A weaker-than-expected reading may weigh on cyclical stocks, reinforcing concerns about slowing industrial activity.
US Dollar
Upside surprises typically support the dollar, as stronger manufacturing demand reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
Softer orders may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger factory orders can push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker readings generally lead to lower yields, as markets price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Firm factory orders would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak report strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if manufacturing softness persists.
Tuesday 24th February
10:00 ET
US CB Consumer Confidence for February
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) measures U.S. households’ perceptions of current economic conditions and expectations for the next six months. The survey is divided into the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index, the latter often viewed as a leading indicator of economic momentum. Because consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. GDP, this release is closely watched for signals on demand and growth.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January), consumer confidence improved modestly, supported by stronger assessments of current labor-market conditions. However, the Expectations Index remained relatively subdued, reflecting ongoing caution about future income prospects and broader economic uncertainty. Inflation concerns eased slightly but continued to weigh on household sentiment. Overall, the data pointed to stable but cautious consumer psychology entering February.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected February reading — particularly in expectations — could support equities, especially consumer discretionary and retail stocks, as improved confidence boosts spending outlooks.
A weaker-than-expected print may weigh on stocks, signaling softer household demand and potential earnings headwinds.
US Dollar
Improving confidence typically supports the dollar, as it reinforces growth resilience and reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A disappointing reading may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger confidence can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker confidence generally leads to lower yields, as investors price in slower consumption and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Improved consumer confidence would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy quickly, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A meaningful deterioration in sentiment — especially expectations — would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path if it signals softer demand ahead.
Wednesday 25th February
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report, published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), measures the change in U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It reflects short-term shifts in supply, demand, imports, exports, and refinery activity. Larger-than-expected builds are typically bearish for crude prices, while larger-than-expected draws are bullish.
What to Expect
Energy Stocks
A larger-than-expected draw would likely support energy equities, particularly exploration and production companies, as higher crude prices improve revenue and cash-flow expectations.
A surprise build could pressure energy stocks, especially those most sensitive to short-term oil-price movements.
Oil Prices
A bullish inventory draw typically pushes oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of tighter supply or stronger demand.
A bearish build generally pressures oil prices lower, signaling excess supply or softer demand conditions.
Broader Implications
While this release primarily impacts oil and energy markets, sustained inventory trends can influence inflation expectations via fuel prices. Persistent draws may add mild inflationary pressure, while repeated builds can contribute to a more disinflationary backdrop.
Thursday 26th February
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, offering a timely snapshot of layoff activity. Continued Jobless Claims track the number of people who remain on unemployment benefits after their initial claim, providing insight into unemployment duration and underlying labour-market slack. Together, these weekly releases are closely watched for early signals of shifts in labour-market momentum.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims would likely support equities by reinforcing confidence in labour-market resilience and consumer spending.
Higher-than-expected claims — particularly a further rise in continued claims — could weigh on stocks, especially cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors.
US Dollar
A strong labour-market signal (lower claims) typically supports the U.S. dollar, reducing expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A weaker reading (higher claims) may pressure the dollar, as markets lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Lower claims can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Higher claims generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm claims report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A soft report — especially rising continued claims — strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack builds.
Friday 27th February
08:30 ET
US PPI for January
The Producer Price Index (PPI), published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures changes in prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services. It is an important upstream inflation indicator, offering early insight into cost pressures that may eventually pass through to consumer prices. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, is closely watched for signals on underlying inflation trends.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (December), producer price inflation remained subdued, with headline PPI showing modest monthly growth. Core PPI pressures eased further, driven by softer services inflation and stable goods prices. Input-cost momentum continued to cool, suggesting that pipeline inflation pressures were diminishing, consistent with broader disinflation trends.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A cooler-than-expected PPI print could support equities, particularly margin-sensitive sectors, as easing cost pressures improve profitability and reduce inflation risks.
A hotter-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks, raising concerns about renewed producer cost pressures and tighter financial conditions.
US Dollar
Stronger producer inflation typically supports the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A softer PPI print may pressure the dollar, reinforcing expectations for a more dovish policy path.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher-than-expected PPI could push yields higher, reflecting increased inflation risk and delayed rate-cut expectations.
Lower PPI readings generally lead to lower yields, as markets price in reduced inflation pressure and a more accommodative outlook.
Federal Reserve Policy
Persistent producer price pressures would encourage the Fed to remain cautious, reinforcing a higher-for-longer stance.
A soft PPI report strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy outlook, especially if it aligns with easing CPI and PCE trends.
08:30 ET
Canadian Monthly GDP for December
Canada’s Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), published by Statistics Canada, measures the month-over-month change in real economic output across goods- and services-producing industries. Unlike the quarterly GDP release, the monthly figure provides a more timely snapshot of economic momentum and sector-level performance, making it a key indicator for growth trends and Bank of Canada policy expectations.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (November), Canadian monthly GDP rose modestly, supported by gains in services-producing industries. Retail trade and public-sector activity contributed positively, while goods-producing sectors — particularly manufacturing and energy — were more mixed. Overall, the data pointed to slow but positive economic momentum, suggesting the economy was stabilizing after earlier softness.
What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
A stronger-than-expected December GDP reading could support equities, particularly cyclical sectors such as financials, industrials, and materials, as firmer growth improves earnings prospects.
A weaker-than-expected print may weigh on stocks, reinforcing concerns about slowing domestic demand.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Stronger GDP growth would likely support the CAD, as improved economic momentum reduces expectations for near-term Bank of Canada easing.
A soft GDP print may pressure the CAD, with markets pricing in slower growth and a more dovish policy outlook.
Canadian Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in GDP could push yields higher, reflecting stronger growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker growth generally leads to lower yields, as investors anticipate softer economic conditions and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Bank of Canada Policy
A firm December GDP reading would reduce pressure on the BoC to cut rates, supporting a patient or neutral stance.
A weak print strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if growth momentum continues to slow into the new year.
