Morning Juice – US Session Prep (25th February)

Sentiment

Rates on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes increased three basis points on Wednesday, with rates rising across the curve.

Traders lowered their expectations for Fed rate cuts. Money markets have slashed the probability of a quarter-point cut by June to 50%, the lowest level this year. The likelihood of a third reduction by the end of the year has nearly evaporated.

Docket
10:30 ET
EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: 1.925M | Prior: -9.014M  Range: 2.6M / -3.94M

16:20 ET
Nvidia Q4 2026 Earnings
Forecasts – EPS: $1.53, Rev. $65.91B

Speakers & Events
9:00 ET
Trump participates in Executive Time

9:35 ET
Fed’s Barkin speaks and participates in a panel before the Northern Virginia Chamber Annual State of the Region event
No Text, Q&A is expected

10:40 ET
Fed’s Barkin Speaks

11:00 ET
Trump participates in a Policy Meeting

Fed’s Schmid speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook in a fireside chat before the Economic Club of Colorado
No Text, Q&A is expected with a moderator

11:30 ET
ECB’s President Lagarde gives opening remarks at a roundtable discussion on trade dependencies and global supply chains during the Munich Security Conference 2026 in Munich
NO Text, Q&A is expected with a moderator

13:20 ET
Fed’s Musalem speaks on the role of the Fed in the St. Louis region at the Missouri Athletic Club
No Text, Q&A is expected with a moderator

15:00 ET
Trump participates in a Meeting with the Secretary of Transportation

15:40 ET
RBA’s Gov. Bullock speaks at the Melbourne University Faculty of Economics & Business

16:30 ET
Trump participates in a Policy Meeting

Good luck!