Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 2nd – 6th March (US)

Monday 2nd March
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI February Final
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI surveys purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector on output, new orders, employment, inventories, and supplier delivery times. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The final release incorporates additional survey responses beyond the preliminary estimate and provides a more complete view of factory-sector momentum for the month.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (February Preliminary), the Manufacturing PMI improved modestly, moving closer to the expansion threshold. Output and new orders stabilized, suggesting demand conditions were no longer deteriorating at the pace seen in prior months. Input-cost pressures remained contained, while employment trends were cautious. Overall, the preliminary data pointed to soft but stabilizing manufacturing activity.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the final PMI is revised higher, equities, particularly industrials and manufacturing-linked names, may benefit as firmer demand supports earnings expectations.
A downward revision could weigh on cyclical stocks, reinforcing concerns about lingering industrial weakness.
US Dollar
An upward revision typically supports the dollar, as stronger activity reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A weaker revision may pressure the dollar, as markets reassess growth momentum and lean toward a more dovish outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger final PMI readings can push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker revisions generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm final PMI would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weaker final reading strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if it confirms broader economic softening.

10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for February
The ISM Manufacturing PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management, surveys purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector on new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. The index is a closely watched gauge of industrial momentum and can provide early signals on broader economic trends and inflation pressures.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January), the ISM Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory, though it showed signs of stabilizing compared with prior months. New orders and production were still soft, while the employment component suggested cautious hiring. The prices paid index eased, indicating some moderation in input cost pressures. Overall, the data pointed to a manufacturing sector that remained weak but was no longer deteriorating sharply.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the February PMI improves more than expected, especially if it moves closer to or above 50, equities, particularly industrial and materials stocks, may benefit as manufacturing sentiment stabilizes.
A weaker-than-expected reading could weigh on cyclical stocks, reinforcing concerns about slowing industrial activity.
US Dollar
A stronger PMI reading typically supports the dollar, as it signals firmer growth and reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A softer print may pressure the dollar, with markets shifting toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises can push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and potentially firmer inflation signals.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in weaker activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
An improving PMI would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
Continued weakness strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if manufacturing softness spills over into broader economic conditions.

Tuesday 3rd March
No noteworthy economic indicators.

Wednesday 4th March
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for February
The ADP Employment Change report estimates the monthly change in private-sector payrolls using anonymized payroll data from ADP’s client base. While it does not always match the official Nonfarm Payrolls figure, it is closely watched as an early indicator of labour-market momentum ahead of the government employment report.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January), ADP employment growth moderated, pointing to slower but still positive private-sector hiring. Gains were concentrated in services industries, while goods-producing sectors showed softer demand for labor. Wage growth trends continued to ease, suggesting that labour-market tightness was gradually diminishing. Overall, the data indicated a cooling but resilient employment backdrop.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected ADP print could support equities by reinforcing confidence in labour-market resilience and consumer spending prospects.
A weaker-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors, as it signals slowing hiring momentum.
US Dollar
A strong ADP result typically supports the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A soft report may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in employment growth could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm ADP report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak reading strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if confirmed by other labour-market indicators.

09:45 ET
US S&P Services PMI February Final
The S&P Global US Services PMI surveys purchasing managers across the services sector on business activity, new orders, employment, and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. The final release incorporates additional survey responses beyond the preliminary estimate and provides a more complete view of service-sector momentum for the month.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (February Preliminary), the Services PMI remained in expansion territory, signaling continued growth in the services sector. Business activity and new orders were steady, though employment growth was cautious. Price pressures persisted but showed signs of gradual moderation. Overall, the preliminary data suggested the services sector continued to underpin overall economic growth, even as momentum cooled slightly.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the final PMI is revised higher, equities, particularly consumer-facing and service-oriented sectors, may benefit as stronger demand supports earnings expectations.
A downward revision could weigh on stocks, especially if it signals slowing demand momentum.
US Dollar
An upward revision typically supports the dollar, reinforcing confidence in US economic resilience and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A weaker revision may pressure the dollar, as markets reassess growth prospects and lean toward a more dovish outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger final PMI readings can push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and persistent inflation risks.
Weaker revisions generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm final PMI would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weaker final reading strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if services-sector momentum shows clear signs of slowing.

10:00 ET
US ISM Services PMI for February
The ISM Services PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management, surveys purchasing managers across the US services sector on business activity, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. Given that services account for the majority of US economic output, this release is a key barometer of growth momentum and inflation pressures.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January), the ISM Services PMI remained in expansion territory, though it eased slightly from prior levels. Business activity and new orders showed moderate growth, while the employment component was mixed, reflecting cautious hiring trends. The prices paid index moderated but remained elevated, suggesting lingering cost pressures in service industries. Overall, the data pointed to a resilient but gradually cooling services sector.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected February PMI could support equities, particularly consumer-facing and service-oriented sectors, as firmer activity underpins earnings expectations.
A weaker-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks, especially if it signals slowing demand across the broader economy.
US Dollar
An upside surprise typically supports the dollar, reinforcing confidence in US growth and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A softer print may pressure the dollar, as markets shift toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger services activity can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and persistent inflation risks.
Weaker readings generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm services PMI would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak reading strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if services-sector softness broadens and inflation pressures ease.

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report, published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), measures the change in US commercial crude oil stockpiles, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It reflects short-term shifts in supply, demand, imports, exports, and refinery activity. Larger-than-expected builds are typically bearish for crude prices, while larger-than-expected draws are bullish.

What to Expect
Energy Stocks
A larger-than-expected draw would likely support energy equities, particularly exploration and production companies, as higher crude prices improve revenue and cash-flow expectations.
A surprise build could pressure energy stocks, especially those most sensitive to short-term oil-price movements.
Oil Prices
A bullish inventory draw typically pushes oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of tighter supply or stronger demand.
A bearish build generally pressures oil prices lower, signaling excess supply or softer demand conditions.
Broader Implications
While this release primarily impacts oil and energy markets, sustained inventory trends can influence inflation expectations via fuel prices. Persistent draws may add mild inflationary pressure, while repeated builds can contribute to a more disinflationary backdrop.

Thursday 5th March
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing a timely gauge of layoff activity. Continued Jobless Claims track the number of people who remain on unemployment benefits after their initial claim, offering insight into unemployment duration and broader labour-market slack. Together, these weekly releases are closely monitored for early signals of changes in employment momentum.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims would likely support equities by reinforcing confidence in labour-market resilience and consumer spending.
Higher-than-expected claims, especially if continued claims rise further, could weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors.
US Dollar
A strong labour-market signal (lower claims) typically supports the US dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A weaker reading (higher claims) may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Lower claims can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Higher claims generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm claims report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A soft report, particularly rising continued claims, strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack builds.

Friday 6th March
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for February
The US Employment Situation report, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), provides the most comprehensive snapshot of labour-market conditions. Key components include Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), measuring net job creation; the Unemployment Rate, reflecting labour-market slack; and Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), which gauge wage growth and potential inflation pressures. This release is one of the most market-moving economic reports each month.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January), nonfarm payroll growth moderated, pointing to slower but still positive hiring momentum. The unemployment rate held steady to slightly higher, suggesting a gradual loosening in labour-market conditions. Average hourly earnings growth eased, indicating that wage pressures were softening. Overall, the data signaled a labour market that remained resilient but was cooling gradually at the start of the year.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected report, solid payroll gains, stable or lower unemployment, and firm wage growth, could support equities by reinforcing confidence in economic resilience and earnings growth.
A weaker-than-expected outcome may weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors, as it signals slowing demand and softer income growth.
US Dollar
A robust jobs report typically supports the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A soft report may pressure the dollar, with markets pricing in slower growth and a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in payrolls or wages could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth and inflation expectations.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors anticipate slower activity and increased odds of rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm labour report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak report, particularly rising unemployment or slowing wage growth, strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack builds.