US NFP Prep

On Friday, the 6th of March at 08:30 ET, the BLS releases the February Employment Situation report, including Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings.
Here are some views on what to expect.

General Expectations
Forecasts subject to change
Nonfarm Payrolls – Forecast: 55k | Prior: 130k | Range: 113k / -9k
Unemployment Rate – Forecast: 4.3% | Prior: 4.3% | Range: 4.4% / 4.2%
Average Hourly Earnings YoY – Forecast: 3.7% | Prior: 3.7% | Range: 3.9% / 3.5%

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected report, solid payroll gains, stable or lower unemployment, and firm wage growth could support equities by reinforcing confidence in economic resilience and earnings growth.
A weaker-than-expected outcome may weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors, as it signals slowing demand and softer income growth.
US Dollar
A robust jobs report typically supports the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A soft report may pressure the dollar, with markets pricing in slower growth and a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in payrolls or wages could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth and inflation expectations.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors anticipate slower activity and increased odds of rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm labour report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak report, particularly rising unemployment or slowing wage growth, strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack builds.

Commentary
Wells Fargo
We expect the February employment report to show that January’s robust pace of payroll growth overstated underlying momentum in the labor market. While some stabilization in demand for workers is evident, a range of indicators, including JOLTS and consumers’ perception of job availability, continue to point to a gradual loosening in labor market conditions rather than a renewed acceleration in hiring. We look for nonfarm payrolls to rise by 45K in February, with weakness in weather-sensitive industries like construction and leisure & hospitality and some payback in healthcare & social assistance after a significantly above-trend reading in January.

We estimate the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in February, but see two-sided risk to this call. The household survey’s measure of employment growth has been running well ahead of its trend the past two months, leaving some scope for payback in February that could push the jobless rate up to 4.4%. However, the implementation of the household survey’s annual population adjustment poses downside risks, given the shift in immigration trends last year. Ratios from the household survey such as the labor force participation rate and unemployment rate are less affected by the population control adjustments than level data, but can move slightly under meaningful changes in the composition of the population.

The roughly balanced labor market should lead to average hourly earnings advancing a trend-like 0.3% in February and 3.7% over the past year.

ANZ
Consensus estimates for the February labour market report suggest headline NFP growth slowed to 60k in February versus 130k in January. We will be watching the breadth of employment gains across industries and revisions to the January data. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.3%. If the report points to a deterioration in labour market conditions, we expect some FOMC members to advocate for a March rate cut.

Bank of America
The labor market appears to be stabilizing near full employment, even as it absorbs shocks on both the supply and demand sides. Immigration restrictions have constrained labor supply, while tariff uncertainty, AI-related disruption, and fiscal policy shifts have weighed on hiring decisions. Of these forces, reduced labor supply is likely to be the more important driver of softer headline job growth this year.

As tariff uncertainty fades, fiscal policy provides a positive impulse, and consumer spending remains resilient, labor demand should gradually recover. Payroll growth is projected to average around 60,000 per month in 2026. With tighter immigration likely lowering the breakeven pace of job creation to roughly 20,000 per month, that level of hiring would still be consistent with an economy operating close to full employment.

Under this framework, the unemployment rate is expected to hold around 4.5% through the first half of 2026 before drifting lower to about 4.3% by the fourth quarter, reflecting a labor market that is cooling but not breaking.

Previous Release
On February 11th at 08:30 ET, the BLS releassed the Employment Siutuation report for January.
US Nonfarm Payrolls Actual 130k (Forecast 65k, Previous 50k, Revised 48k)
US Unemployment Rate Actual 4.3% (Forecast 4.4%, Previous 4.4%)
US Average Earnings YoY Actual 3.7% (Forecast 3.7%, Previous 3.8%, Revised 3.7%)

The January employment report showed the labor market entering 2026 on relatively steady footing. Hiring remained concentrated in a few key sectors, led by health care and social assistance, with construction also contributing. At the same time, job losses in federal government payrolls and financial activities highlighted continued unevenness beneath the surface. The unemployment rate held near recent levels, reinforcing the idea that conditions are stabilizing rather than re-accelerating.

Wage growth remained firm, with average hourly earnings rising at a pace still above inflation, while hours worked ticked slightly higher. Longer-term indicators, however, continue to point to gradual cooling: long-term unemployment remains elevated versus a year ago, and benchmark revisions confirmed that job growth in 2025 was weaker than previously reported. Overall, the report fits a narrative of slower but intact labor market momentum, with firms adjusting through selective hiring and reduced churn rather than widespread layoffs.

Market reaction was notable. Strength was seen across US assets, the dollar, bond yields, and the S&P 500 all moved higher, while gold weakened. At first glance, this is counterintuitive, as stronger employment data reduces the urgency for imminent rate reductions. But markets appeared to interpret the report as reinforcing a “soft landing” backdrop: growth remains resilient, labor conditions are not deteriorating sharply, and risk appetite can stay supported even if policy easing is pushed further out. In that sense, equities benefited from confidence in the expansion, while gold softened as immediate downside or crisis