Morning Juice – US Session Prep (5th March)

Sentiment
US equities struggled for direction as rising oil prices and ongoing tensions in the Middle East kept investors cautious. S&P 500 futures moved between gains and losses before settling little changed, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose for a fourth straight session.

Markets briefly lifted after reports that Iran signaled willingness to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in exchange for concessions from the US, but the move faded as traders awaited a response from Washington. Meanwhile, Brent crude continued to climb above $83 a barrel after Iran warned it could escalate retaliation against US strikes. The dollar edged 0.1% higher.

Energy market stress remains a key focus. China has moved to preserve gasoline supplies, while Japanese refiners are pushing for the release of strategic petroleum reserves. European stocks rose 0.6% and Asian equities trimmed earlier gains.

Bond markets continued to sell off globally. The US 10-year yield rose 2 basis points to 4.12%, while European sovereign yields climbed even more. Gold advanced above $5,150 an ounce, and Bitcoin traded around $73,200.

Docket
08:30 ET
US Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial Claims – Forecast: 215k | Prior: 212k | Range: 230k / 205k
Continued Claims – Forecast: 1.845M | Prior: 1.833M | Range: 1.867M / 1.822M

Speakers
12:00 ET
ECB’s President Lagarde gives the 2026 Annual Global Risk Lecture in honour of Robert Mundell, organized by John Hopkins University in Bologna, Italy.
The text will be made available on the ECB’s website.

13:15 ET
Fed’s Bowman speaks at the New York Bankers Association event on banking supervision and the economy
Text: No. Q&A: Yes, moderator.

Earnings
16:15 ET
Costco Q2 2026 Earnings
Est. EPS: $4.55
Est. Rev: $69.24B

Good luck!