Morning Juice – US Session Prep (6th March)

Sentiment
Global bonds extended their sell-off as rising oil prices intensified fears that the Middle East conflict could push inflation higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed three basis points to 4.17%, putting it on track for its largest weekly rise since April.
Equity markets also weakened ahead of Friday’s US jobs report, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5%. The dollar gained 0.2%, while gold held steady.

Tensions escalated overnight as Iran launched missiles and drones toward several Gulf countries. Israel, supported by the United States, continued airstrikes on Iranian targets. Missile alerts were reported in Dubai, while Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain also said they were targeted.

European equities headed for their worst week since April. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.8%, leaving the index down about 5.4% on the week. In rates markets, traders scaled back expectations for Bank of England easing in 2026, with roughly a 50% chance now priced for a quarter-point cut. Two-year gilt yields jumped 11 basis points to 3.91%.

Policy expectations also shifted in the euro area. Money markets now fully price an ECB rate hike this year, a notable reversal from a week earlier when traders saw a rate cut as the more likely outcome.

Docket
08:30 ET
US Nonfarm Payrolls for February
Forecast: 55K | Prior: 130K | Range: 113K / -9K
US Unemployment Rate for February
Forecast: 4.3% | Prior: 4.3% | Range: 4.4% / 4.2%
US Average Earnings YoY for February
Forecast: 3.7% | Prior: 3.7% | Range: 3.9% / 3.5%
US Retail Sales MoM for January
Forecast: -0.3% | Prior: 0% | Range: 0.5% / -0.8%

Speakers
08:30 ET
ECB’s Cipollone is speaking at a presentation at the European Banking Federation Executive Committee meeting in Frankfurt

Fed’s Daly speaks on CNBC

10:15 ET
Fed’s Daly & Fed’s Paulson speak on private sector data at the US Monetary Policy Forum at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in New York
Text for Paulson and Q&A is expected

11:30 ET
Fed’s Schmid speaks on the Federal Reserve. economic education, monetary policy and the outlook at the National Association of Economic Educators Annual Conference
No Text, Q&A is expected

12:00 ET
ECB’s Schnabel speaks at the Booth School of Business Policy Forum in New York
Text is expected

13:20 ET
Fed’s Collins speaks on economic conditions at Springfield Regional Chamber event
No Q&A, Text is expected

13:30 ET
Fed’s Hammack speaks in a panel on the dollar’s safe-haven status at the US Monetary Policy Forum, Barclays Intercontinental
Text and Q&A are expected

RBA’s Hauser speaks on a panel at the US Monetary Policy Forum in New York

Good luck!