Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 9th – 13th March (US)
Monday 9th March
No noteworthy economic indicators.
Tuesday 10th March
10:00 ET
US Existing Home Sales for February
Existing Home Sales, published monthly by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), measure the annualized pace of completed transactions for previously owned homes, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops. The release is a key indicator of housing-market activity and consumer demand, and is highly sensitive to mortgage rates, affordability conditions, and broader financial conditions.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January), existing home sales rose modestly, suggesting some stabilization in housing activity despite elevated mortgage rates. Inventory levels improved slightly but remained historically tight, keeping upward pressure on home prices. Overall, the data pointed to a housing market that was finding a floor, though activity remained subdued compared with longer-term averages.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected February reading could support equities tied to housing and consumer activity, including homebuilders, real estate services, and related retailers.
Weaker-than-expected sales may weigh on housing-related stocks, reinforcing concerns about affordability constraints and demand softness.
US Dollar
A strong housing print may offer modest support to the dollar by reinforcing economic resilience, though housing data typically has a limited direct FX impact.
Weak housing data could mildly pressure the dollar if it adds to broader growth concerns.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger home sales could push yields higher, reflecting improved growth sentiment and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker sales typically lead to lower yields, as markets price in softer growth and continued pressure from restrictive financial conditions.
Federal Reserve Policy
An improvement in housing activity would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy quickly, suggesting the economy can tolerate higher rates.
Continued weakness strengthens the case for a more accommodative stance, as housing is one of the most interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the economy.
Wednesday 11th March
08:30 ET
US CPI for February
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures changes in prices paid by consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services. It is one of the most closely watched inflation indicators, shaping expectations for interest rates, financial conditions, and Federal Reserve policy. Core CPI — which excludes food and energy — is particularly important for assessing underlying inflation trends.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January), headline CPI rose modestly, while core inflation remained firm, reflecting persistent price pressures in services categories. Shelter costs continued to be a primary contributor, though the pace showed gradual moderation. Goods prices were mixed, with some categories stabilizing. Overall, the data suggested that disinflation progress had slowed, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% target.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A cooler-than-expected February CPI print could support equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary, as it strengthens expectations for interest-rate cuts.
A hotter-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks, tightening financial conditions and reinforcing concerns about prolonged restrictive policy.
US Dollar
Stronger inflation data typically supports the U.S. dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A softer CPI print may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher-than-expected inflation would likely push yields higher, reflecting delayed rate-cut expectations and persistent inflation risk.
Lower inflation readings generally lead to lower yields, as markets price in easing and reduced inflation pressure.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm February CPI — especially in core services — would reinforce a higher-for-longer stance, encouraging the Fed to remain cautious about easing.
A softer inflation profile would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, increasing confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward target.
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report, published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), measures the change in U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It reflects short-term shifts in supply, demand, imports, exports, and refinery activity. Larger-than-expected builds are typically bearish for crude prices, while larger-than-expected draws are bullish.
What to Expect
Energy Stocks
A larger-than-expected draw would likely support energy equities, particularly exploration and production companies, as firmer crude prices improve revenue and cash-flow expectations.
A surprise build could pressure energy stocks, especially those most sensitive to short-term oil-price movements.
Oil Prices
A bullish inventory draw typically pushes oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of tighter supply or stronger demand.
A bearish build generally pressures oil prices lower, signaling excess supply or softer demand conditions.
Broader Implications
While this release primarily impacts oil and energy markets, sustained inventory trends can influence inflation expectations via fuel prices. Persistent draws may add mild inflationary pressure, while repeated builds can contribute to a more disinflationary backdrop.
Thursday 12th March
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing a timely gauge of layoff activity. Continued Jobless Claims track the number of people who remain on unemployment benefits after their initial claim, offering insight into unemployment duration and broader labour-market slack. Together, these weekly releases are closely monitored for early signals of changes in employment momentum.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims would likely support equities by reinforcing confidence in labour-market stability and consumer spending.
Higher-than-expected claims — especially if continued claims rise meaningfully — could weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors.
US Dollar
A strong labour-market signal (lower claims) typically supports the U.S. dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A weaker reading (higher claims) may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Lower claims can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Higher claims generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm claims report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A soft report — particularly rising continued claims — strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack builds.
Friday 13th March
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index for January
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures changes in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. It is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge because it captures a broader range of spending and adjusts for changes in consumer behavior. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is especially important for assessing underlying inflation trends.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (December), headline PCE inflation rose modestly, while core PCE remained firm, reflecting persistent price pressures in services categories. Monthly gains were steady, suggesting that while inflation had cooled from prior peaks, progress toward the Fed’s 2% target remained gradual. Services inflation continued to outpace goods, underscoring stickiness in labour-intensive sectors.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A cooler-than-expected January PCE print could support equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary, as it strengthens expectations for interest-rate cuts.
A hotter-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks, tightening financial conditions and reinforcing concerns about prolonged restrictive policy.
US Dollar
Stronger inflation data typically supports the U.S. dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A softer PCE print may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher-than-expected PCE inflation would likely push yields higher, reflecting delayed rate-cut expectations and persistent inflation risk.
Lower inflation readings generally lead to lower yields, as markets price in easing and reduced inflation pressure.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm core PCE reading would reinforce a higher-for-longer stance, encouraging the Fed to remain cautious about easing.
A softer inflation profile would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, increasing confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward target.
08:30 ET
US GDP Q4 Second Estimate
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), measures the total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. economy. The quarter-on-quarter (annualised) GDP figure is the broadest indicator of economic growth. The second estimate incorporates more complete data on trade, inventories, and consumer spending than the advance release, and can lead to meaningful revisions that shift market expectations.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (Q4 Advance), U.S. GDP showed solid growth, supported primarily by resilient consumer spending and steady government outlays. Business investment was mixed, while net exports and inventories contributed modestly. The advance reading reinforced the view that the economy maintained positive momentum into year-end, though growth was moderating compared to earlier quarters.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the second estimate revises growth higher, equities — particularly cyclical and growth-sensitive sectors — may benefit as stronger activity supports earnings expectations.
A downward revision could weigh on stocks, especially if driven by weaker consumer spending or business investment.
US Dollar
An upward revision would likely support the dollar, reinforcing confidence in U.S. economic resilience and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A weaker revision may pressure the dollar, as markets reassess growth prospects and lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger growth revisions could push yields higher, reflecting firmer economic activity and potentially more persistent inflation pressures.
Downward revisions typically lead to lower yields, as investors price in softer growth and increased demand for safe-haven assets.
Federal Reserve Policy
A stronger-than-expected second estimate would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates quickly, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weaker revision would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if consumption or investment momentum slows materially.
08:30 ET
US Durable Goods January Prelim
The Durable Goods Orders report, published monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, measures new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for long-lasting goods (items expected to last three years or more), such as machinery, vehicles, and aircraft. It is a key indicator of business investment and manufacturing demand. Core durable goods — excluding transportation — and non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft are especially important for assessing underlying capital spending momentum.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (December), durable goods orders rose modestly, supported by gains in transportation equipment, particularly aircraft. Excluding transportation, orders were more subdued, suggesting underlying demand remained cautious. Core capital goods orders showed limited growth, pointing to measured business investment amid tighter financial conditions and uncertain demand.
Overall, the data suggested that headline strength masked mixed underlying momentum in capital spending.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected January print — particularly in core and capital goods orders — could lift equities, especially industrial and manufacturing-linked stocks, by signaling firmer investment demand.
A weaker-than-expected reading may weigh on cyclical stocks, reinforcing concerns about slowing capital expenditure.
US Dollar
Upside surprises in durable goods, particularly outside transportation, tend to support the dollar by reinforcing confidence in U.S. growth.
A softer report may pressure the dollar, as weaker investment demand strengthens expectations for a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger orders can push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker readings generally lead to lower yields, as markets price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Firm durable goods and capital goods orders would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak report — particularly in core capital goods — strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, as slowing investment signals cooling economic momentum.
08:30 ET
Canadian Employment Change for February
The Employment Change report, published monthly by Statistics Canada, measures the net change in the number of employed persons across the Canadian economy. It includes both full-time and part-time positions and is accompanied by the unemployment rate and wage growth data. The release is a key gauge of labour-market health and plays an important role in shaping expectations for Bank of Canada (BoC) policy.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January), employment rose modestly, driven primarily by gains in part-time positions, while full-time employment was mixed. The unemployment rate held steady to slightly higher, suggesting gradual easing in labour-market tightness. Wage growth showed signs of stabilizing but remained above long-term averages. Overall, the data pointed to a cooling but still resilient labour market at the start of the year.
What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
A stronger-than-expected February employment gain could support equities, particularly consumer-facing and domestic-oriented sectors, as firmer job growth underpins spending and earnings prospects.
A weaker-than-expected print may weigh on stocks, especially if accompanied by a rise in the unemployment rate.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Robust job growth would likely support the CAD, as it reduces expectations for near-term Bank of Canada easing.
A soft employment report may pressure the CAD, with markets pricing in slower growth and a more dovish policy outlook.
Canadian Government Bond Yields
Stronger employment data could push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and potentially firmer wage-driven inflation risks.
Weaker data would likely lead to lower yields, as investors anticipate softer economic momentum and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Bank of Canada Policy
A firm employment report would reduce pressure on the BoC to cut rates, supporting a cautious or neutral stance.
A weak print — particularly if unemployment rises and wage growth slows — strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack increases.
10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey March Prelim
The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers measures U.S. household sentiment regarding personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions. The survey also tracks inflation expectations over the 1-year and 5–10 year horizons. As a preliminary release, it provides an early read on consumer confidence and inflation psychology, both of which can influence spending behavior and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (February Final), consumer sentiment improved modestly, with gains in both current conditions and expectations. Households expressed slightly greater confidence in income prospects and the broader economic outlook.
Inflation expectations were stable to slightly lower, with short-term expectations easing and long-run expectations remaining anchored. Overall, the data pointed to gradual improvement in confidence alongside stable inflation expectations, though sentiment levels remained below historical averages.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If March preliminary sentiment improves further or inflation expectations ease again, equities — particularly consumer discretionary and retail stocks — may benefit as stronger confidence supports spending outlooks.
A weaker reading or a rise in inflation expectations could weigh on stocks by signaling more cautious consumers and potential demand softness.
US Dollar
Stronger sentiment may support the dollar if it reinforces growth resilience.
Lower inflation expectations may pressure the dollar, as they strengthen expectations for a more dovish Federal Reserve policy path.
US Government Bond Yields
Easing inflation expectations typically push yields lower, reflecting reduced inflation risk and increased odds of policy easing.
Stronger sentiment or rising inflation expectations could push yields higher on improved growth or renewed inflation concerns.
Federal Reserve Policy
Further declines in inflation expectations would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy outlook over time.
If inflation expectations rise or sentiment weakens materially, the Fed may maintain a more cautious stance, keeping policy restrictive for longer.
10:00 ET
US JOLTS Job Openings for January
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures the number of unfilled job openings at the end of the month, along with hiring, quits, and separations. Job openings are closely watched as a gauge of labour-market tightness, employer demand for workers, and potential wage and inflation pressures.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (December), job openings declined modestly, continuing the broader trend of gradual cooling in labour demand. Openings remained elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels but were well below their peak, signaling easing tightness. The quits rate edged lower, suggesting reduced worker confidence and moderating wage pressures. Overall, the data pointed to a more balanced labour-market environment, though demand for workers remained solid.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If job openings come in higher than expected, equities may react positively as resilient labour demand supports consumer spending and earnings expectations.
A weaker-than-expected print could weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors, as it signals further cooling in hiring momentum.
US Dollar
A stronger JOLTS reading typically supports the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A softer report may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in job openings may push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth and inflation expectations.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm job openings report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
Continued declines in openings strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if accompanied by easing wage growth and rising labour-market slack.
