Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 16th – 20th March (US)
Monday 16th March
08:30 ET
Canadian CPI for February
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published monthly by Statistics Canada, measures changes in prices paid by consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services. It is Canada’s primary gauge of inflation and a key input into Bank of Canada (BoC) policy decisions. Core CPI measures, such as CPI-trim and CPI-median, are closely monitored to assess underlying inflation trends beyond volatile components like food and energy.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January), headline CPI rose modestly, reflecting continued price pressures in services-related categories. Core inflation measures remained relatively firm, while shelter costs continued to be the largest contributor to overall inflation. Goods prices were more mixed, with some categories stabilizing. Overall, the data suggested inflation progress was gradual but uneven, with price pressures still above the BoC’s 2% target.
What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
A softer-than-expected CPI print could support equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors such as financials, real estate, and consumer discretionary, as easing inflation improves the outlook for borrowing costs.
A hotter-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks by raising concerns that inflation will remain persistent.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
A stronger CPI outcome would likely support the CAD, as higher inflation reduces the likelihood of near-term Bank of Canada easing.
A softer CPI print may pressure the CAD, reinforcing expectations for a more dovish policy outlook.
Canadian Government Bond Yields
Higher-than-expected inflation could push yields higher, as markets price in a higher-for-longer rate path.
Lower inflation readings generally lead to lower yields, reflecting increased confidence in easing inflation pressures and potential rate cuts.
Bank of Canada Policy
A firm CPI report would reduce pressure on the BoC to cut rates, supporting a cautious or neutral stance as policymakers wait for clearer evidence that inflation is returning sustainably to target.
A softer CPI print strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if core measures continue to trend lower.
09:15 ET
US Industrial Production for February
The Industrial Production (IP) index, published monthly by the Federal Reserve, measures real output from the U.S. manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. It is a key indicator of industrial activity and overall economic momentum, providing insight into demand conditions, capacity pressures, and broader business-cycle trends.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January), industrial production rose modestly, supported by a rebound in manufacturing output and steady mining activity. Utilities output was mixed, partly reflecting seasonal weather effects. Capacity utilization edged higher, suggesting a slight firming in the use of productive resources. Overall, the data indicated stable but moderate industrial momentum heading into February.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If industrial production beats expectations, equities — particularly industrials and materials stocks — may benefit as stronger output signals healthier demand and earnings prospects.
A weaker-than-expected print could weigh on stocks, especially manufacturing-linked names, as growth concerns intensify.
US Dollar
Stronger production data typically supports the dollar, reinforcing confidence in U.S. economic resilience and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A softer reading may pressure the dollar, as markets lean toward slower growth and a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
An upside surprise could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
A downside surprise would likely lead to lower yields, as investors price in weaker activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A robust industrial production print would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak reading would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if accompanied by softness in other growth indicators.
Tuesday 17th March
No noteworthy economic indicators
Wednesday 18th March
08:30 ET
US PPI for February
The Producer Price Index (PPI), published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures changes in prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services. It serves as an upstream inflation indicator, offering insight into cost pressures that may eventually pass through to consumer prices. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, is closely watched for signals about underlying inflation trends.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January), producer prices rose modestly, with both headline and core measures showing moderate monthly increases. Services inflation remained the primary driver of price pressures, while goods prices were more stable. The data suggested that while inflation had eased from earlier highs, pipeline price pressures remained present, particularly in service-related categories.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A cooler-than-expected February PPI print could support equities, particularly sectors sensitive to input costs, as easing producer prices improve corporate margins and reduce inflation risks.
A hotter-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks, raising concerns about renewed cost pressures and tighter financial conditions.
US Dollar
Stronger producer inflation typically supports the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A softer PPI print may pressure the dollar, reinforcing expectations for a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher-than-expected PPI could push yields higher, reflecting increased inflation risk and delayed rate-cut expectations.
Lower PPI readings generally lead to lower yields, as markets price in reduced inflation pressure and a more accommodative outlook.
Federal Reserve Policy
Persistent producer price pressures would encourage the Fed to remain cautious, reinforcing a higher-for-longer stance on interest rates.
A soft PPI report strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy outlook, especially if it aligns with easing CPI and PCE trends.
09:45 ET
Bank of Canada Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision sets the target for the overnight rate, which influences borrowing costs across the Canadian economy, including mortgages, business loans, and consumer credit. The decision is announced alongside a policy statement explaining the Bank’s assessment of inflation, economic growth, and financial conditions. Markets closely watch the release for signals on the future path of monetary policy.
Summary of Last Report
At the previous meeting, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady, citing ongoing progress in reducing inflation while noting that price pressures remained above the 2% target. Policymakers highlighted signs of cooling economic momentum and easing labour-market tightness, while emphasizing the need to ensure inflation continues moving sustainably toward the target. The statement reflected a cautious and data-dependent approach to future policy adjustments.
What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
If the BoC delivers a more dovish signal — suggesting potential rate cuts or highlighting downside growth risks — equities may react positively as borrowing conditions improve.
A more hawkish tone, emphasizing persistent inflation or the need to keep policy restrictive, could weigh on stocks.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
A hawkish outcome would likely support the CAD, as higher interest rates attract capital flows.
A dovish decision or guidance pointing toward future easing could pressure the CAD lower.
Canadian Government Bond Yields
If the BoC signals rates will stay higher for longer, yields may rise, particularly at the short end of the curve.
A dovish shift or hints at easing could push yields lower, reflecting expectations for future rate cuts.
Bank of Canada Policy Outlook
Markets will focus heavily on the policy statement and forward guidance for clues about the timing of potential rate cuts.
Evidence of slowing inflation and economic momentum would support a more accommodative path, while persistent inflation pressures would encourage the Bank to maintain a restrictive stance for longer.
10:00 ET
US Factory Orders for January
Factory Orders, published monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, measure the dollar value of new orders for manufactured goods. The report covers both durable and nondurable goods, providing a broad view of demand across the manufacturing sector. It is often used to confirm trends seen in the durable goods release and offers insight into industrial momentum and business investment.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (December), factory orders rose modestly, supported by gains in transportation equipment and select nondurable goods categories. Durable goods orders contributed to the increase, though underlying demand excluding transportation remained more subdued. Overall, the data pointed to stable but uneven manufacturing demand, with businesses remaining cautious amid tighter financial conditions.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected factory orders reading could lift equities — particularly industrial and manufacturing-linked stocks — as firmer demand supports earnings expectations.
A weaker-than-expected print may weigh on cyclical stocks, reinforcing concerns about slowing industrial activity.
US Dollar
Upside surprises typically support the dollar, as stronger manufacturing demand signals resilient economic momentum.
A softer report may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger factory orders can push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker readings generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Firm factory orders would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak report strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if manufacturing softness persists.
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report, published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), measures the change in U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It reflects short-term shifts in supply, demand, imports, exports, and refinery activity. Larger-than-expected builds are typically bearish for crude prices, while larger-than-expected draws are bullish.
What to Expect
Energy Stocks
A larger-than-expected draw would likely support energy equities, particularly exploration and production companies, as stronger crude prices improve revenue and cash-flow expectations.
A surprise build could pressure energy stocks, especially those most sensitive to short-term oil-price movements.
Oil Prices
A bullish inventory draw typically pushes oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of tighter supply or stronger demand.
A bearish build generally pressures oil prices lower, signaling excess supply or softer demand conditions.
Broader Implications
While this release primarily impacts oil and energy markets, sustained inventory trends can influence inflation expectations via fuel prices. Persistent draws may add mild inflationary pressure, while repeated builds can contribute to a more disinflationary backdrop.
14:00 ET
US Interest Rate Decision, SEP & Rate Statement
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision sets the target range for the federal funds rate, which influences borrowing costs across the U.S. economy. The announcement is released alongside the FOMC rate statement, outlining the Fed’s assessment of economic conditions and policy outlook, and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which includes policymakers’ forecasts for growth, unemployment, inflation, and the “dot plot” showing individual expectations for future interest rates. Together, these elements provide key guidance on the path of monetary policy.
Summary of Last Report
At the previous meeting, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, emphasizing that inflation had eased but remained above the 2% target. The rate statement highlighted continued economic resilience and a gradually cooling labour market, while noting that policymakers required greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward target.
The SEP projections showed modest adjustments to growth and inflation forecasts, while the dot plot signaled expectations for policy easing later in the year, though with uncertainty around the exact timing and pace of cuts. Overall, the meeting reinforced a data-dependent and cautious policy approach.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A dovish outcome — such as signals of earlier or more aggressive rate cuts — could support equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors like technology and growth stocks.
A hawkish tone, emphasizing persistent inflation or fewer expected cuts, may weigh on stocks by tightening financial conditions.
US Dollar
If the Fed signals higher-for-longer policy, the dollar would likely strengthen as U.S. yields remain relatively attractive.
A more dovish policy outlook could pressure the dollar lower as markets price in earlier rate cuts.
US Government Bond Yields
Hawkish guidance or upward revisions to inflation forecasts could push yields higher, particularly at the front end of the curve.
Dovish signals or lower projected rates in the dot plot may drive yields lower as markets anticipate policy easing.
Federal Reserve Policy
Markets will closely watch the dot plot and economic projections for clues about the timing and pace of rate cuts.
Evidence of persistent inflation or strong growth could keep policy restrictive for longer, while clearer progress toward the inflation target would support a more accommodative path.
Thursday 19th March
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing a timely gauge of layoff activity. Continued Jobless Claims track the number of people who remain on unemployment benefits after their initial claim, offering insight into unemployment duration and broader labour-market slack. Together, these weekly releases are closely monitored for early signals of changes in employment momentum.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims would likely support equities by reinforcing confidence in labour-market resilience and consumer spending.
Higher-than-expected claims — particularly if continued claims rise further — could weigh on stocks, especially cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors.
US Dollar
A strong labour-market signal (lower claims) typically supports the U.S. dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A weaker reading (higher claims) may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Lower claims can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Higher claims generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm claims report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A soft report — particularly rising continued claims — strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack builds.
10:00 ET
US New Home Sales for January
New Home Sales, published monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, measure the annualized pace of sales for newly constructed single-family homes. The report provides insight into housing demand, construction activity, and broader economic momentum. Because new homes represent a smaller share of total housing transactions but are closely tied to construction activity, the release is an important indicator for the housing sector and residential investment.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (December), new home sales rose modestly, supported by builder incentives and some stabilization in mortgage rates. Sales gains were uneven across regions, with stronger activity in areas with greater housing supply. While demand showed signs of resilience, elevated borrowing costs continued to weigh on affordability. Overall, the data pointed to a housing market that was stabilizing but still sensitive to interest rates.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected January reading could support equities tied to housing and consumer activity, including homebuilders and construction-related companies.
A weaker-than-expected print may weigh on housing-related stocks, reinforcing concerns about affordability and slowing demand.
US Dollar
A strong housing print may provide modest support for the dollar by reinforcing economic resilience.
Weak housing data could slightly pressure the dollar if it contributes to broader growth concerns.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger home sales could push yields higher, reflecting improved growth sentiment and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker sales typically lead to lower yields, as markets price in softer growth and continued pressure from restrictive financial conditions.
Federal Reserve Policy
An improvement in housing activity would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy quickly, suggesting the economy can tolerate higher interest rates.
Continued weakness strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy stance, as housing is one of the most interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the economy.
Friday 20th March
08:30 ET
Canadian Retail Sales for January
Canadian Retail Sales, published monthly by Statistics Canada, measure the total value of sales at retail stores across the country. The report provides a key gauge of consumer spending, which is a major driver of economic growth. Because it reflects household demand across categories such as autos, gasoline, food, and discretionary goods, the release is closely watched for signals on economic momentum and consumer confidence.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (December), Canadian retail sales rose modestly, supported by stronger spending in motor vehicles and general merchandise. However, gains were uneven across sectors, with some discretionary categories showing softer demand as higher borrowing costs weighed on household spending. Overall, the data pointed to stable but cautious consumer activity heading into the new year.
What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
A stronger-than-expected January retail sales print could support equities, particularly consumer discretionary and retail-related stocks, as firm spending signals resilient household demand.
A weaker-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks, especially sectors tied to consumer activity.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Stronger retail sales would likely support the CAD, as firmer consumer demand reinforces confidence in economic resilience and reduces expectations for near-term Bank of Canada easing.
A softer reading may pressure the CAD, with markets pricing in slower growth and a more dovish policy outlook.
Canadian Government Bond Yields
Stronger consumer spending could push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker sales generally lead to lower yields, as investors anticipate softer economic momentum and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Bank of Canada Policy
A firm retail sales report would reduce pressure on the BoC to cut rates quickly, suggesting consumer demand remains resilient despite higher borrowing costs.
A weak print would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path if softer spending signals slowing economic activity.
