Morning Juice – US Session Prep (19th March)

Sentiment
Global stocks extended their losses as another sharp rise in oil and gas prices added to concerns that the Middle East war will push inflation higher and weigh on growth. S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% after the US benchmark erased its weekly gains in the previous session, while European equities dropped 2.1% toward their lowest level of the year and a broad Asian stock gauge fell 2.8%.

The pressure came as Brent’s rally since the start of the conflict moved beyond 55%, with prices approaching $113 a barrel after attacks on some of the region’s most important energy facilities. West Texas Intermediate rose by less than 1%, leaving the gap between US crude and global benchmarks even wider, while European natural gas jumped as much as 35%.

The move in energy is now feeding directly into the macro outlook. Central banks are increasingly worried about renewed price pressure, and both the Bank of England and Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged while signalling that the conflict has made the policy outlook more uncertain.

Docket
08:30 ET
US Weekly Jobless Claims 
Initial Claims – Forecast: 215k | Prior: 213k | Range: 245k / 209k
Continued Claims – Forecast: 1.851M | Prior 1.85M | Range 1.875M / 1.84M

09:15 ET
ECB Rate Decision
Deposit Rate – Forecast sees no change at 2%
Interest Rate – Forecast sees no change at 2.15%

10:00 ET
US New Home Sales (Units) for January
Forecast: 0.723M | Prior: 0.745M | Range: 0.8M / 0.675M

13:00 ET
US sells $19 bln 10-Year TIPS
Prior High Yield: 1.94%
Prior Bid-to-cover 2.38

Speakers & Events
09:45 ET
ECB Press Conference with President Lagarde

11:15 ET
Trump meets Japan’s PM.

Good luck!