Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 23rd – 27th March (US)

Monday 23rd March
No noteworthy economic indicators

Tuesday 24th March
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing & Services PMIs March Prelim
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys provide an early monthly snapshot of US private-sector activity.
The Manufacturing PMI tracks output, new orders, employment, inventories, and supply-chain conditions across factories.
The Services PMI measures business activity, demand, employment, and pricing trends across the services sector.
Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while below 50 signal contraction. As preliminary releases, these PMIs are among the earliest indicators of monthly economic momentum and inflation pressures.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (February Final), the Manufacturing PMI remained subdued, hovering close to the expansion threshold as factory output and new orders showed limited momentum. Demand conditions were stable but weak, while employment growth remained cautious.
The Services PMI stayed in expansion territory, supported by steady business activity and resilient demand. Price pressures moderated slightly, though services inflation remained more persistent than in the goods sector. Overall, the data pointed to a two-speed economy, with services driving growth while manufacturing lagged.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If both PMIs surprise to the upside, equities, particularly cyclicals and service-oriented sectors, may benefit as stronger activity supports earnings expectations.
Weaker-than-expected readings, especially if services soften meaningfully, could weigh on stocks by raising concerns about slowing economic momentum.
US Dollar
Stronger PMI data typically supports the dollar, reinforcing confidence in US growth and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
Softer readings may pressure the dollar, as markets lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in PMIs could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and persistent inflation risks.
Weaker PMIs generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Resilient PMI data, particularly in services, would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates and support a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
Broad-based weakness across both manufacturing and services would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path as growth risks increase.

Wednesday 25th March
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Inventories
The Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report, published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), measures the change in US commercial crude oil stockpiles, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It reflects short-term shifts in supply, demand, imports, exports, and refinery activity. Larger-than-expected builds are typically bearish for crude prices, while larger-than-expected draws are bullish.

What to Expect
Energy Stocks
A larger-than-expected draw would likely support energy equities, particularly exploration and production companies, as stronger crude prices improve revenue and cash-flow expectations.
A surprise build could pressure energy stocks, especially those most sensitive to short-term oil-price movements.
Oil Prices
A bullish inventory draw typically pushes oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of tighter supply or stronger demand.
A bearish build generally pressures oil prices lower, signaling excess supply or softer demand conditions.
Broader Implications
While this release primarily impacts oil and energy markets, sustained inventory trends can influence inflation expectations via fuel prices. Persistent draws may add mild inflationary pressure, while repeated builds can contribute to a more disinflationary backdrop.

Thursday 26th March
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing a timely gauge of layoff activity. Continued Jobless Claims track the number of people who remain on unemployment benefits after their initial claim, offering insight into unemployment duration and broader labour-market slack. Together, these weekly releases are closely monitored for early signals of changes in employment momentum.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims would likely support equities by reinforcing confidence in labour-market resilience and consumer spending.
Higher-than-expected claims, especially if continued claims rise further, could weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors.
US Dollar
A strong labour-market signal (lower claims) typically supports the US dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A weaker reading (higher claims) may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Lower claims can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Higher claims generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm claims report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A soft report, particularly rising continued claims, strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack builds.

Friday 27th March
10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey March Final
The University of Michigan Sentiment Survey measures US consumer attitudes toward personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions. It is a closely watched indicator of household confidence and spending appetite, and it can also influence market expectations for growth and monetary policy. The final reading incorporates additional survey responses beyond the preliminary release and can confirm or revise the initial picture of consumer sentiment for the month.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (March Preliminary), consumer sentiment fell to 55.5 from 56.6 in February, pointing to softer household confidence at the start of March. The decline was driven mainly by weaker expectations, while current conditions held up better. The survey also showed a deterioration in views on personal finances, with sentiment pressured by rising uncertainty and higher fuel-price concerns. Overall, the preliminary reading pointed to more cautious consumers and a weaker confidence backdrop heading into the final release.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the final reading is revised higher, equities, particularly consumer discretionary and retail-related names, may benefit as firmer sentiment supports the spending outlook.
A downward revision could weigh on stocks by reinforcing concerns about softer household demand and a more cautious consumer.
US Dollar
A stronger final sentiment reading would likely support the dollar, as it reinforces confidence in US economic resilience.
A weaker revision may pressure the dollar, particularly if it adds to expectations of slower growth and a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
An upward revision in sentiment could push yields higher, reflecting stronger growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
A weaker final reading would likely lead to lower yields, as investors price in softer activity and greater downside risks.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firmer final reading would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy quickly, supporting a patient stance if broader data remain stable.
A weaker final reading would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path if deteriorating sentiment begins to signal softer consumer spending and slower growth.