Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 30th March – 3rd April (US)

Monday 30th March
No noteworthy economic indicators

Tuesday 31st March
08:30 ET 
Canadian GDP for January
Canada’s Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), published by Statistics Canada, measures the month-over-month change in real economic output across goods- and services-producing industries. It provides a timely snapshot of economic momentum and sector-level performance, making it a key indicator for growth trends and Bank of Canada (BoC) policy expectations.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (December), Canadian GDP rose modestly, supported primarily by gains in services-producing industries such as retail trade and public administration. Goods-producing sectors were more mixed, with manufacturing and energy showing uneven performance. Overall, the data pointed to slow but positive economic momentum, suggesting the economy was stabilizing into year-end.

What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
A stronger-than-expected January GDP reading could support equities, particularly cyclical sectors such as financials, industrials, and materials, as firmer growth improves earnings prospects.
A weaker-than-expected print may weigh on stocks, reinforcing concerns about slowing domestic demand.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Stronger GDP growth would likely support the CAD, as improved economic momentum reduces expectations for near-term Bank of Canada easing.
A soft GDP print may pressure the CAD, with markets pricing in slower growth and a more dovish policy outlook.
Canadian Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in GDP could push yields higher, reflecting stronger growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker growth generally leads to lower yields, as investors anticipate softer economic conditions and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Bank of Canada Policy
A firm January GDP reading would reduce pressure on the BoC to cut rates, supporting a patient or neutral stance.
A weak print strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if growth momentum continues to soften.

10:00 ET
US CB Consumer Confidence for March
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) measures US households’ perceptions of current economic conditions and their expectations for the next six months. The survey is divided into the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index, with the latter often viewed as a leading indicator of economic momentum. As consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP, this release is closely watched for signals on demand and growth.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (February), consumer confidence declined modestly, reflecting softer expectations for future economic conditions. While assessments of the current labour market remained relatively stable, the Expectations Index weakened, pointing to increased caution among households. Inflation concerns persisted, and respondents highlighted uncertainty around income prospects and the broader economic outlook. Overall, the data suggested growing consumer caution despite still-solid current conditions.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected March reading, particularly in expectations, could support equities, especially consumer discretionary and retail stocks, as improved confidence boosts spending outlooks.
A weaker-than-expected print may weigh on stocks, signaling softer household demand and potential earnings headwinds.
US Dollar
Improving confidence typically supports the dollar, as it reinforces growth resilience and reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A disappointing reading may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger confidence can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker confidence generally leads to lower yields, as investors price in slower consumption and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Improved consumer confidence would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy quickly, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A meaningful deterioration in sentiment, especially expectations, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path if it signals softer demand ahead.

10:00 ET
US JOLTS Job Openings for February
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures the number of unfilled job openings at the end of the month, along with hiring, quits, and separations. Job openings are closely watched as a gauge of labour-market tightness, employer demand for workers, and potential wage and inflation pressures.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January), US job openings were little changed at 6.946 million, indicating labour demand remained relatively steady. Hires were unchanged at 5.3 million, while total separations were also little changed at 5.1 million. Overall, the data pointed to a labour market that was cooling gradually but not weakening sharply, with job openings holding at a more moderate level than in the post-pandemic peak period.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If job openings come in higher than expected, equities may react positively as resilient labour demand supports consumer spending and earnings expectations.
A weaker-than-expected print could weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors, as it signals further cooling in hiring momentum.
US Dollar
A stronger JOLTS reading typically supports the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A softer report may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in job openings may push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth and inflation expectations.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm job openings report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
Continued declines in openings strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if accompanied by easing wage growth and rising labour-market slack.

Wednesday 1st April
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for March
The ADP Employment Change report measures the monthly change in US private-sector payrolls using anonymized payroll data from ADP’s client base. While it does not always match the official Nonfarm Payrolls figure, it is closely watched as an early signal on labour-market momentum ahead of the government employment report. ADP says the report is built from payroll records covering more than 26 million workers, making it a useful snapshot of private hiring trends.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (February), US private employment increased by 63,000, up from a revised 11,000 in January, pointing to a modest rebound in hiring after a very soft start to the year. Pay growth for job-stayers was 4.5% year-over-year, while job gains were led by areas such as construction and education/health services. Overall, the report suggested the labour market was still growing, but at a slower and more uneven pace than in prior periods.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected ADP print could support equities by reinforcing confidence in labour-market resilience and consumer spending prospects.
A weaker-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors, as it signals softer hiring momentum.
US Dollar
A strong ADP result typically supports the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A soft report may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in employment growth could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm ADP report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak reading strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if it is confirmed by other labour-market indicators.

08:30 ET
US Retail Sales for February
The Retail Sales report, published monthly by the US Census Bureau, measures the change in total receipts at retail stores, food services, and online merchants. It is a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP, and is closely watched for signals on economic momentum and demand conditions.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January), retail sales declined modestly by around 0.2% month-over-month, reflecting a pullback in spending following the holiday season.
For February, available data and estimates point to a modest rebound in spending, with retail sales rising slightly but coming in below expectations, suggesting consumers remain cautious. Gains were uneven across categories, with strength in online and essential spending, while discretionary areas remained softer.
Overall, the trend points to resilient but slowing consumer demand, with households becoming more selective in their spending.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected February print could lift equities, particularly consumer discretionary and retail stocks, by reinforcing confidence in household demand.
A weaker-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks, especially retail and cyclical sectors, as it signals slowing consumption.
US Dollar
Firm retail sales data tend to support the dollar, as resilient consumption reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
Soft sales figures may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger sales can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and potential inflation persistence.
Weaker sales generally lead to lower yields, as markets price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Robust retail sales would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak print strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, as cooler consumer demand signals slowing economic momentum.

09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI March Final
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI surveys purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector on output, new orders, employment, inventories, and supplier delivery times. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. The final release incorporates additional survey responses beyond the preliminary estimate, providing a more complete and reliable view of manufacturing-sector momentum for the month.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (March Preliminary), the Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 from 51.6, signaling a firmer pace of expansion in factory activity.
The improvement was driven by stronger output and new orders, suggesting a pickup in demand. However, the broader survey highlighted a mixed backdrop, with growth moderating at the composite level and rising input costs, particularly linked to higher energy prices.
Overall, the data pointed to a manufacturing sector that was expanding modestly but facing increasing cost pressures and external risks.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the final PMI is revised higher, equities, particularly industrial and manufacturing-linked stocks, may benefit as stronger activity supports earnings expectations.
A downward revision could weigh on cyclical stocks, reinforcing concerns about slowing industrial momentum.
US Dollar
An upward revision typically supports the dollar, as stronger manufacturing activity reinforces confidence in US growth.
A weaker revision may pressure the dollar, as markets reassess economic momentum and lean toward a more dovish outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger final PMI readings can push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and persistent inflation risks.
Weaker revisions generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm final PMI would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weaker final reading strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if it confirms broader economic softening.

10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for March
The ISM Manufacturing PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management, surveys purchasing managers across the U.S. manufacturing sector on new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. It is one of the most widely followed indicators of industrial activity and broader economic momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (February), the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4, slightly down from 52.6 in January but still firmly in expansion territory.
The data showed continued growth in manufacturing activity, supported by solid new orders, although some components, particularly employment, remained weak. Cost pressures were still evident, with the prices index elevated, indicating ongoing input cost challenges. Overall, the report pointed to a sector that had moved back into expansion but remained uneven beneath the surface.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the March PMI remains in expansion or beats expectations, equities, particularly industrial and materials stocks, may benefit as manufacturing momentum stabilizes.
A weaker-than-expected reading, especially a move back below 50, could weigh on cyclicals and raise concerns about slowing growth.
US Dollar
A stronger PMI reading typically supports the dollar, as it reinforces confidence in U.S. economic resilience and reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A softer print may pressure the dollar, with markets shifting toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises can push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and persistent inflation risks.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in weaker activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm PMI would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a higher-for-longer stance if inflation risks persist.
A weak reading, particularly if driven by falling new orders, strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as manufacturing weakness feeds into broader economic concerns.

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report, published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), measures the change in U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It reflects short-term shifts in supply, demand, imports, exports, and refinery activity. Larger-than-expected builds are typically bearish for crude prices, while larger-than-expected draws are bullish.

What to Expect
Energy Stocks
A larger-than-expected draw would likely support energy equities, particularly exploration and production companies, as higher crude prices improve revenue and cash-flow expectations.
A surprise build could pressure energy stocks, especially those most sensitive to short-term oil-price movements.
Oil Prices
A bullish inventory draw typically pushes oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of tighter supply or stronger demand.
A bearish build generally pressures oil prices lower, signaling excess supply or softer demand conditions.
Broader Implications
While this release primarily impacts oil and energy markets, sustained inventory trends can influence inflation expectations via fuel prices. Persistent draws may add mild inflationary pressure, while repeated builds can contribute to a more disinflationary backdrop.

Thursday 2nd April
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing a timely gauge of layoff activity. Continued Jobless Claims track the number of people who remain on unemployment benefits after their initial claim, offering insight into unemployment duration and broader labour-market slack. Together, these weekly releases are closely monitored for early signals of changes in employment momentum.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims would likely support equities by reinforcing confidence in labour-market resilience and consumer spending.
Higher-than-expected claims, especially if continued claims rise further, could weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors.
US Dollar
A strong labour-market signal (lower claims) typically supports the U.S. dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A weaker reading (higher claims) may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Lower claims can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Higher claims generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm claims report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A soft report, particularly rising continued claims, strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack builds.

Friday 3rd April
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for March
Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Earnings
The U.S. Employment Situation report, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), provides the most comprehensive snapshot of labour-market conditions. Key components include Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), measuring net job creation; the Unemployment Rate, reflecting labour-market slack; and Average Earnings, which gauge wage growth and potential inflation pressures. This is one of the most market-moving economic releases each month.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (February), payroll growth came in softer than prior months, pointing to a continued moderation in hiring momentum. The unemployment rate edged slightly higher, suggesting gradual easing in labour-market tightness. Average earnings growth remained steady to slightly softer, indicating that wage pressures were no longer accelerating.
Overall, the report signaled a labour market that remained resilient but clearly cooling, consistent with a broader normalization trend.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected report, solid job gains, stable or lower unemployment, and firm wage growth, could support equities by reinforcing confidence in economic resilience and earnings growth.
A weaker-than-expected outcome may weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors, as it signals slowing demand and softer income growth.
US Dollar
A robust jobs report typically supports the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A soft report may pressure the dollar, with markets pricing in slower growth and a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in payrolls or wages could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth and inflation expectations.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors anticipate slower activity and increased odds of rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm labour report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak report, particularly rising unemployment or slowing wage growth, strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack builds.

09:45 ET
US S&P Services PMI March Final
The S&P Global U.S. Services PMI surveys purchasing managers across the services sector on business activity, new orders, employment, and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. The final release incorporates additional survey responses beyond the preliminary estimate, providing a more complete view of service-sector momentum for the month.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (March Preliminary), the Services PMI remained in expansion territory, though it eased slightly, indicating a moderation in service-sector growth. Business activity and new orders softened, suggesting demand was cooling, while employment growth remained cautious. Input-cost pressures persisted, partly linked to higher energy costs. Overall, the data pointed to a still-expanding but slowing services sector.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the final PMI is revised higher, equities, particularly consumer-facing and service-oriented sectors, may benefit as stronger demand supports earnings expectations.
A downward revision could weigh on stocks, especially if it signals broader economic momentum is slowing.
US Dollar
An upward revision typically supports the dollar, reinforcing confidence in U.S. economic resilience.
A weaker revision may pressure the dollar, as markets reassess growth prospects and lean toward a more dovish outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger final PMI readings can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and persistent inflation risks.
Weaker revisions generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm final PMI would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weaker final reading strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if services-sector momentum shows clearer signs of slowing.

10:00 ET
US ISM Services PMI for March
The ISM Services PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management, surveys purchasing managers across the U.S. services sector on business activity, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. Because services make up the majority of U.S. economic activity, this release is a key gauge of growth momentum and inflation pressures.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (February), the ISM Services PMI rose to 56.1, up from 53.8 in January, marking the highest reading since July 2022. Business activity increased to 59.9, new orders climbed to 58.6, and the employment index improved to 51.8, showing broad-based strength across the services sector. The prices index eased to 63.0 from 66.6, suggesting cost pressures remained elevated but were rising at a slower pace. Overall, the report pointed to a strong reacceleration in services activity, with demand improving and hiring holding in expansion territory.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected March PMI could support equities, particularly consumer-facing and service-oriented sectors, as firmer activity underpins earnings expectations.
A weaker-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks, especially if it suggests demand is cooling more materially.
US Dollar
An upside surprise typically supports the dollar, reinforcing confidence in U.S. growth and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A softer print may pressure the dollar, as markets shift toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger services activity can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and persistent inflation risks.
Weaker readings generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm services PMI would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak reading strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if services-sector softness broadens and price pressures continue to ease.