Morning Juice – US Session Prep (1st April)
Sentiment
US markets moved higher as hopes grew that the Middle East war may be nearing an end, helping push Brent briefly below $100 per barrel and supporting Treasuries, while the dollar posted its biggest drop in a week. The S&P 500 was on track to rise 0.5%, which would mark its strongest daily gain since May, while European equities jumped 2% and Asian stocks rose 4.8%, after Trump said the US would conclude the conflict with Iran within two to three weeks.
Brent fell as much as 5.4% before trimming the move, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed and missile and drone attacks continuing across the Gulf. Traders also pared back expectations for tighter monetary policy, sending two-year Treasury yields down 3bps to 3.76%, while comparable UK gilt yields fell 8bps to 4.32%.
Even if the war ends within Trump’s timeline, oil flows are unlikely to return to normal quickly because several energy facilities were damaged during the fighting. Trump’s team has also suggested that reopening the Strait of Hormuz may not be necessary to end the conflict. Trump has called on other governments to take control of the Strait, but so far only the UAE has said it would join a naval force to help reopen it or escort tankers, while Bahrain is working on a UN Security Council resolution to authorise such a mission.
Docket
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for March
Forecast 40K | Previous 63K | Range: 96K / 33K
08:30 ET
US Retail Sales for February
MoM – Forecast 0.5% | Previous -0.2% | Range: 1.2% / 0.1%
Core MoM – Forecast 0.3% | Previous 0.0% | Range: 0.9% / 0.1%
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI March Final
Forecast 52.4 | Previous 52.4 | Range: 52.4 / 51.8
10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for March
Forecast 52.3 | Previous 52.4 | Range: 53.5 / 50.6
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: 2M | Previous 6.926M | Range: 4.09M / -2M
Events & Speakers
09:05 ET
Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy at American Enterprise Institute
Text and Q&A: Yes
09:10 ET
Fed’s Barr Speaks on AI and Consumer Issues at National Fair Housing Alliance Symposium
Text: No Q&A: Yes
13:30 ET
BoC Meeting Minutes
Good luck!
