US CPI Prep

Forecasts & Ranges
US CPI YoY Forecast 3.4%, Previous 2.4% Range 3.8% / 3%
US CPI MoM Forecast 1%, Previous 0.3% Range 1.5% / 0.7%
US Core CPI MoM Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2% Range 0.4% / 0.2%
US Core CPI YoY Forecast 2.7%, Previous 2.5% Range 2.8% / 2.6%

Summary of Last CPI Report
Inflation rose modestly in February, with headline CPI up 0.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y, while core increased 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y, showing stable but still slightly sticky inflation. The move was mainly driven by shelter (largest contributor), alongside gains in food and energy, while some categories like used cars and communication declined.

US Supercore CPI MoM Actual 0.35%, Previous 0.59%
US Supercore CPI YoY Actual 2.75%, Previous 2.67%

Investment Bank Views
March CPI will capture the first leg of what will be at least a two-month war-related spike in inflation, as gasoline will carry an even higher average price level than these March figures. This is a time of the year when gas prices see a seasonal rise, so the seasonally-adjusted jump will be a bit smaller than the raw number. But we still see headline inflation jumping above 3% and on track towards 4% territory if we don’t see relief at the pump in the next few weeks, as April will also pick up more of the spillover into freight and airfares. But markets are much more focused on how long all of this will last, so news from the battlefront and from the White House will dominate trading.

Citi
We expect CPI data on April 10th will be of greater Interest for markets. Currently, median expectations are for 0.3 MoM on core and 1.0% MoM on headline. And despite those lofty expectations, we would still position for an upside beat, particularly amid the Fed’s focus on goods Inflation, where risks look skewed to the upside in coming prints.

Morgan Stanley
We expect core CPI to rise 0.19% m/m (2.6% y/y), slightly below February. We forecast core goods in positive territory, but likely close to the 0% mark. We think the tariff pass-through continued in March, but we also anticipate soft cars inflation and deceleration in apparel after February’s strong reading. Core services decelerate due to seasonal payback and despite stronger rents and positive airfares inflation. Headline comes at 0.84% m/m (3.3% y/y, NSA Index: 330.337) as higher oil boosts gasoline – this would be the highest reading since the disruption in oil markets related to the Russia- Ukraine conflict in 2022.