Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 6th – 10th April (US)

Monday 6th April
10:00 ET
US ISM Services PMI for March
The ISM Services PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management, surveys purchasing managers across the U.S. services sector on business activity, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. As services make up the majority of U.S. economic activity, this is a key barometer of growth momentum and inflation pressures.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (February), the ISM Services PMI rose sharply to 56.1, up from 53.8 in January and well above expectations.
The strength was broad-based:
Business activity surged to 59.9
New orders climbed to 58.6
Employment returned to expansion at 51.8
Prices eased slightly but remained elevated
Overall, the report pointed to a strong reacceleration in services activity, reinforcing the resilience of the U.S. economy despite tighter financial conditions.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the March PMI remains strong or beats expectations, equities, particularly consumer-facing and service-driven sectors, may benefit as robust demand supports earnings.
A weaker-than-expected print could weigh on stocks, especially if it signals that February’s strength was not sustained.
US Dollar
A strong PMI reading typically supports the dollar, as it reinforces confidence in U.S. growth and reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A softer print may pressure the dollar, with markets shifting toward a more dovish outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises can push yields higher, reflecting stronger growth and persistent inflation pressures.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm services PMI — especially with elevated prices — would support a higher-for-longer stance.
A weaker reading, particularly if demand and employment soften, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path.

Tuesday 7th April
08:30 ET
US Durable Goods February Prelim
The Durable Goods Orders report, published monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, measures new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for goods expected to last three years or more, such as machinery, vehicles, and aircraft. It is a key indicator of business investment and manufacturing demand, with core measures, particularly orders excluding transportation and non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft, closely watched for underlying momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January), durable goods orders were essentially unchanged (0.0% MoM), falling short of expectations for a solid increase.
The flat headline masked mixed underlying trends:
Transportation orders declined, dragging on the overall figure.
Orders excluding transportation rose 0.4%, indicating some underlying resilience.
Core capital goods orders were flat, suggesting cautious business investment.
Overall, the report pointed to soft but stable investment demand, with volatility in headline figures largely driven by transportation.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected February print, particularly in core and capital goods orders, could lift equities, especially industrial and manufacturing-linked sectors, as it signals firmer investment demand.
A weaker reading may weigh on cyclicals, reinforcing concerns about slowing capital expenditure.
US Dollar
Upside surprises in durable goods, particularly outside transportation, tend to support the dollar by reinforcing confidence in U.S. growth.
A softer report may pressure the dollar, as weaker investment demand strengthens expectations for a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger orders can push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker readings generally lead to lower yields, as markets price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Firm durable goods and capital goods orders would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak report, particularly in core capital goods, strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, as slowing investment signals cooling economic momentum.

Wednesday 8th April
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report, published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), measures the change in U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It reflects short-term shifts in supply, demand, imports, exports, and refinery activity. Larger-than-expected builds are typically bearish for crude prices, while larger-than-expected draws are bullish.

What to Expect
Energy Stocks
A larger-than-expected draw would likely support energy equities, particularly exploration and production companies, as stronger crude prices improve revenue and cash-flow expectations.
A surprise build could pressure energy stocks, especially those most sensitive to short-term oil-price movements.
Oil Prices
A bullish inventory draw typically pushes oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of tighter supply or stronger demand.
A bearish build generally pressures oil prices lower, signalling excess supply or softer demand conditions.
Broader Implications
While this release primarily impacts oil markets, sustained inventory trends can influence inflation expectations via fuel prices. Persistent builds can reinforce a disinflationary backdrop, while consistent draws may add upside pressure to inflation expectations.

14:00 ET
FOMC Meeting Minutes for the March Meeting
The FOMC meeting minutes provide a detailed account of the discussions that took place at the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy meeting. While they do not announce a new rate decision, they offer deeper insight into how policymakers are thinking about inflation, labour-market conditions, growth risks, and the future path of interest rates. For March meetings in particular, markets also look for how closely the discussion lines up with the updated Summary of Economic Projections and the rate statement.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (the minutes from the January 27–28, 2026 meeting), policymakers broadly agreed that economic activity was still expanding at a solid pace, while inflation remained somewhat elevated. The discussion suggested officials were not yet ready to signal an imminent shift toward easier policy, with participants emphasising the need for greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably back toward target. Overall, the minutes reinforced a cautious, data-dependent stance, with the Committee balancing still-firm inflation against signs that the labour market had cooled from earlier extremes.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the March minutes are read as more dovish than the statement or SEP implied, for example, showing greater concern about growth risks or more comfort with disinflation progress, equities may respond positively, especially rate-sensitive sectors. If the minutes lean more hawkish, stressing inflation persistence or reluctance to cut too soon, stocks could come under pressure as financial conditions tighten.
US Dollar
A hawkish read on the minutes would likely support the dollar, as markets would infer rates may stay restrictive for longer.
A softer tone would tend to weigh on the dollar, especially if the discussion suggests policymakers are becoming more comfortable with eventual easing.
US Government Bond Yields
If the minutes show officials remained concerned about upside inflation risks, yields may rise, particularly at the front end of the curve.
If the discussion highlights slowing momentum or growing confidence on inflation, yields may fall as markets lean more toward future rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Policy
The key focus will be whether the minutes show broad support for keeping policy restrictive for longer, or whether more members were becoming open to easing later this year. Because the March meeting also included updated projections, markets will look for confirmation of whether the discussion behind the scenes matched the tone of the SEP and statement. A cautious discussion would reinforce a patient Fed, while a more balanced tone on inflation and growth would strengthen the case for a more accommodative path over time.

Thursday 9th April
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index & Consumer Spending for February
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures changes in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. It is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge because it captures a broader range of spending and adjusts for changes in consumer behavior. The same release also includes consumer spending, or personal consumption expenditures, which measures how much households are spending across goods and services and is a key indicator of U.S. economic momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January), the PCE price index rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, while core PCE increased 0.4% on the month and 3.1% from a year earlier. Consumer spending rose 0.4% month-over-month, with the gain driven by a $105.7 billion increase in services spending, partly offset by a $24.6 billion decline in goods spending. In real terms, spending rose 0.1%, pointing to continued but moderate consumer demand. Overall, the report suggested inflation progress was still gradual, with underlying price pressures remaining sticky even as spending stayed positive.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A cooler-than-expected inflation reading alongside solid spending would likely support equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary, as it would point to easing price pressures without a sharp loss of demand. A hotter-than-expected PCE print, especially if spending also remains firm, could weigh on stocks by reinforcing concerns that inflation is proving sticky.
US Dollar
Stronger inflation or firmer spending would tend to support the U.S. dollar, as both would reduce expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing. A softer inflation print and weaker spending outcome would likely pressure the dollar, as markets lean more dovish on the policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher-than-expected PCE inflation and resilient consumer spending would likely push yields higher, reflecting delayed rate-cut expectations and stronger growth signals. Softer inflation and weaker spending would generally pull yields lower, as investors price in slower activity and an easier policy path.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm core PCE reading combined with healthy spending would support a higher-for-longer Fed stance, keeping policymakers cautious about cutting rates too quickly. A softer inflation profile, especially if paired with cooling consumer demand, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path over time.

08:30 ET
US GDP Q4 Final
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), measures the total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. economy. The quarter-on-quarter (annualised) GDP figure is the broadest indicator of economic growth. The final (third) estimate incorporates the most complete data on trade, inventories, and consumption, and represents the most accurate reading of quarterly economic activity.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (Q4 Second Estimate), U.S. GDP was revised down sharply to 0.7% annualised, reflecting a significant slowdown from earlier estimates and a steep deceleration from 4.4% growth in Q3.
The weaker reading was driven by softer consumer spending, exports, and government outlays, indicating that underlying momentum into year-end was weaker than initially thought. Despite this, investment provided some offset, and domestic demand remained positive overall.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the final estimate is revised higher, equities, particularly cyclicals, may benefit as it signals stronger underlying growth than feared.
A downward revision or confirmation of weak growth could weigh on stocks, reinforcing concerns about slowing economic momentum.
US Dollar
An upward revision would likely support the dollar, as stronger growth reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A weaker or unchanged soft reading may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger GDP revisions could push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations.
Weaker or confirmed soft growth would likely lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased policy support.
Federal Reserve Policy
A stronger final reading would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates quickly, supporting a patient stance.
A weak or downward revision strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if it confirms broader economic cooling.

Friday 10th April
08:30 ET
US Factory Orders for February
Factory Orders, published monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, measure the dollar value of new orders for manufactured goods, covering both durable and nondurable goods. The report provides a broad view of manufacturing demand and is often used to confirm trends seen in the durable goods release. As a leading indicator of production, rising orders typically signal increased future activity.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (January), factory orders rose modestly by 0.1% MoM, following a 0.4% decline in December.
The increase was driven by nondurable goods (+0.3%), while durable goods were essentially flat, with strength in machinery and electronics offset by weakness in transportation (notably aircraft).
Orders excluding transportation rose 0.4%, pointing to underlying resilience in demand despite volatility in headline figures. Overall, the data suggested stable but modest manufacturing momentum, with businesses remaining cautious.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected February reading could support equities, particularly industrial and manufacturing-linked sectors, as firmer demand signals improved earnings prospects.
A weaker print may weigh on cyclicals, reinforcing concerns about slowing industrial activity.
US Dollar
Upside surprises in factory orders typically support the dollar, as stronger manufacturing demand signals resilient economic momentum.
A softer report may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger orders can push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker readings generally lead to lower yields, as markets price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Firm factory orders would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak report strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if manufacturing softness persists.

10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey & Inflation Expectations April Prelim
The University of Michigan Sentiment Survey measures U.S. consumer attitudes toward personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions. It also includes 1-year and long-run inflation expectations, making it a closely watched release for both growth and inflation signals. Because shifts in confidence can affect household spending, and shifts in inflation expectations can influence Federal Reserve thinking, the survey is an important market-moving soft-data release. The next preliminary April reading is scheduled for April 10, 2026.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (March Final), consumer sentiment fell to 53.3 from 56.6 in February, marking a notable deterioration in household confidence. The decline was led by a drop in the Expectations Index to 51.7 from 56.6, while Current Conditions slipped to 55.8 from 56.6.
Inflation expectations moved in different directions. 1-year inflation expectations rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in February, while long-run inflation expectations eased slightly to 3.2%. Overall, the report pointed to a consumer backdrop that was more cautious on growth, while near-term inflation concerns picked up.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If April sentiment comes in stronger than expected, equities, particularly consumer discretionary and retail-related sectors, may benefit as firmer confidence supports the spending outlook.
A weaker-than-expected reading, especially if inflation expectations also rise, could weigh on stocks by raising concerns about softer demand and a more difficult inflation backdrop.
US Dollar
A stronger sentiment reading would likely support the dollar, particularly if it reinforces confidence in U.S. economic resilience.
If sentiment disappoints, the dollar may come under pressure, especially if markets interpret the survey as a sign of weakening household demand.
US Government Bond Yields
If sentiment improves and inflation expectations rise, yields may move higher as markets price in firmer growth and stickier inflation risks.
If sentiment weakens and inflation expectations ease, yields may fall as investors lean toward softer activity and a more accommodative policy outlook.
Federal Reserve Policy
The inflation expectations components will be especially important. If 1-year inflation expectations stay elevated or rise further, that would support a more cautious Fed stance, even if confidence weakens.
If inflation expectations cool and sentiment remains soft, it would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path over time.