Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 13th – 17th April (US)

Tuesday 14th April
08:30 ET
US PPI (Producer Price Index)
The Producer Price Index (PPI), published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures changes in prices received by domestic producers. It’s a leading inflation pipeline indicator and helps assess whether cost pressures are building or easing before they show up in consumer inflation.

Summary of Last Report (February 2026)
In the February 2026 report, PPI for final demand rose +0.7% m/m (after +0.5% in January and +0.4% in December 2025). On a year-over-year basis, final demand prices were up +3.4% y/y. Core producer prices excluding food and energy rose +0.5% m/m.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A softer-than-expected PPI print can support equities by easing inflation concerns and rate pressure. A hotter print can weigh on stocks, particularly growth and other rate-sensitive sectors.
US Dollar
Stronger producer inflation tends to support the USD by lifting rate expectations. A softer print can pressure the USD if it reinforces disinflation.
US Government Bond Yields
If PPI runs hot, yields may rise as markets reprice inflation risk. A downside surprise would likely pull yields lower.
Federal Reserve Policy
With markets currently sensitive to whether inflation pressures are re-accelerating at the producer level, PPI is a key input into the “inflation persistence” debate. A hotter core reading would strengthen the case for the Fed to stay restrictive for longer. A softer print would reinforce expectations that easing can come once policymakers are confident disinflation is durable.

09:00 ET
IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)
The IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) is the Fund’s flagship macro report, published twice a year (typically April and October) with interim updates. It provides global and country-level forecasts for growth, inflation, trade, and other key macro variables, and is widely used as a baseline for assessing the global business cycle and policy risks.

Summary of Last Report (January 2026 WEO Update)
In the January 2026 WEO Update, the IMF projected global growth at 3.3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027, noting that global inflation is expected to fall, though US inflation is expected to return to target more gradually. The update also highlighted downside risks including a reassessment of technology-driven optimism and escalation in geopolitical tensions

10:15 ET
IMF Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR)
The IMF Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) is the Fund’s flagship report on global financial system risks. It assesses market conditions, funding and liquidity risks, leverage and interconnectedness (including nonbanks), and vulnerabilities that could amplify shocks across asset classes or regions.

Summary of Last Report (October 2025 GFSR)
In the October 2025 GFSR, the IMF warned that financial stability risks remain elevated despite calm-looking markets, citing stretched asset valuations, pressure in sovereign bond markets, and a rising role of nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs). It also emphasized that FX market structure can amplify stress (higher funding costs, wider bid-ask spreads, and greater volatility during uncertainty), and noted diverging resilience across emerging markets depending on borrowing profiles and investor bases.

Wednesday April 15th
10:30 ET
EIA Weekly Inventories (Crude Oil)
The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, published by the US Energy Information Administration, tracks weekly changes in US petroleum supply/demand conditions – most notably commercial crude oil inventories. It’s a key near-term barometer for oil market tightness and can drive short-term moves in crude prices and energy-linked assets.

Summary of Last Report (week ending Apr 3, 2026; released Apr 8, 2026)
In the latest report, US commercial crude oil inventories rose by +3.081 million barrels (prior +5.451 million), signalling another weekly build in crude stocks.

Thursday April 16th
08:30 ET
Initial Jobless Claims
Released weekly by the US Department of Labor, measure the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. It’s a high-frequency read on layoffs and labor market momentum, often shaping near-term growth and rates pricing at the margin.

Summary of Last Report (week ending Apr 4, 2026)
In the latest weekly release, initial claims rose to 219,000 (from 203,000 prior), an increase of +16,000. The 4-week moving average ticked up to 209,500. Continuing claims fell to about 1.79 million.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims can support equities by reinforcing labor market resilience. Higher claims can weigh on cyclicals if markets read it as a pickup in layoffs.
US Dollar
A lower claims print is typically USD-supportive at the margin by reinforcing relative growth strength. A higher print can pressure the USD if it points to softer activity.
US Government Bond Yields
Lower claims can push yields higher as markets lean toward firmer growth. Higher claims typically pull yields lower as growth concerns rise.
Federal Reserve Policy
With markets currently focused on whether labor market cooling is staying orderly or becoming more pronounced, claims matter mainly for confirming the direction of layoffs. A sustained rise would reinforce expectations that restrictive policy is gaining traction and supports the case for eventual easing. Persistently low claims would support a patient Fed stance by signalling labor conditions remain firm enough to keep policy restrictive for longer.

09:15 ET
US Industrial Production
Industrial Production (IP), published monthly by the Federal Reserve (G.17), measures real output from US manufacturing, mining, and utilities. It’s a key read on the goods side of the economy and can influence growth expectations and rate pricing when it meaningfully surprises.

Summary of Last Report (February 2026)
In the February 2026 release, industrial production rose +0.2% m/m (after +0.7% in January). Manufacturing output increased +0.2%, mining rose +0.8%, and utilities fell -0.6%. Total IP was +1.4% y/y, while capacity utilization held at 76.3%.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected IP print can support cyclicals by signalling firmer real-economy momentum. A weaker print can weigh on industrials/materials if it points to slowing demand.
US Dollar
Upside surprises can be modestly USD-supportive via stronger growth perceptions. Downside surprises can pressure the USD if they raise growth concerns.
US Government Bond Yields
A beat can push yields higher on firmer growth expectations. A miss can pull yields lower as markets lean toward softer activity.
Federal Reserve Policy
With markets currently weighing whether growth is cooling enough to allow easing without reigniting inflation, IP mainly matters as a confirmation signal alongside broader activity data. A stronger run of production data would support the Fed staying patient and restrictive for longer. A softer trend would reinforce expectations that policy can eventually shift toward cuts as growth momentum fades.