Morning Juice – US Session Prep (13th April)

Sentiment
Oil prices moved back above $100 a barrel after weekend US-Iran peace talks stalled and Trump authorised a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent jumped 7.7% to above $101, while S&P 500 futures pointed 0.6% lower at the open. Bonds recovered some of their initial losses, with the two-year Treasury yield rising 2bps to 3.82%, the dollar gained 0.3% for its biggest rise in almost a week, and gold was slightly lower at $4,710 an ounce.

Oil and gas flows through the Strait remain a central market focus, with new US restrictions on vessels calling at Iranian ports threatening to intensify the global energy shock. Even so, the relatively modest pullback in risk assets suggests investors are still holding onto the view that some form of resolution remains possible.

At the same time, the renewed jump in crude, combined with a strong March US CPI print, is pushing bond markets back toward an inflation focus. Japan’s 10-year yield briefly hit its highest level since 1997 before easing, European government bonds posted moderate losses, and US money markets are now pricing less than a one-in-five chance of a rate cut by December.

Docket
No noteworthy economic indicators

Speakers & Events
08:15 ET
ECB’s de Guindos speaks at the 4th “Wake Up, Spain” symposium organised by El Español, Invertia and D+I (Disruptores e Innovadores) in Madrid, Spain.
No text will be made available.

09:00 ET
BoE’s Taylor speaks at the PSE-BdF Conference on International Macroeconomics in Historical Perspective.

Good Luck!