Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 20th – 24th April (US)
Monday 20th April
No noteworthy economic indicators
Tuesday 21st April
08:30 ET
US Retail Sales for March
The Retail Sales report, published monthly by the US Census Bureau, measures the change in total receipts at retail stores, food services, and online merchants. It is a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP, and is closely watched for signals on economic momentum and household demand.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (February), retail sales rose modestly, suggesting consumer spending remained resilient after a softer start to the year. Gains were concentrated in a handful of categories, while discretionary spending remained more mixed, pointing to a consumer that was still spending but becoming more selective. Overall, the report suggested steady but not especially strong consumption momentum heading into March.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected March reading could lift equities, particularly consumer discretionary and retail stocks, by reinforcing confidence in household demand and earnings growth.
A weaker-than-expected print may weigh on stocks, especially cyclical and retail names, as it signals slowing consumer momentum.
US Dollar
Firm retail sales data tend to support the dollar, as resilient consumption reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
Soft sales figures may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger sales can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and potential inflation persistence.
Weaker sales generally lead to lower yields, as markets price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Robust retail sales would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak print strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, as cooler consumer demand is an early signal of slowing economic momentum.
Wednesday 22nd April
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report, published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), measures the change in US commercial crude oil stockpiles, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It reflects short-term shifts in supply, demand, imports, exports, and refinery activity. Larger-than-expected builds are typically bearish for crude prices, while larger-than-expected draws are bullish.
What to Expect
Energy Stocks
A larger-than-expected draw would likely support energy equities, particularly exploration and production companies, as stronger crude prices improve revenue and cash-flow expectations.
A surprise build could pressure energy stocks, especially those most sensitive to short-term oil-price movements.
Oil Prices
A bullish inventory draw typically pushes oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of tighter supply or stronger demand.
A bearish build generally pressures oil prices lower, signaling excess supply or softer demand conditions.
Broader Implications
The report is a key signal for the balance between supply and demand, and can influence broader inflation expectations through energy prices. Persistent builds point to a more disinflationary backdrop, while sustained draws can contribute to upside inflation pressure.
Thursday 23rd April
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing a timely gauge of layoff activity. Continued Jobless Claims track the number of people who remain on unemployment benefits after their initial claim, offering insight into unemployment duration and broader labour-market slack. Together, these weekly releases are closely monitored for early signals of changes in employment momentum.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous week’s report, initial jobless claims rose to around 219,000, up from roughly 203,000 the prior week, marking the highest level in about two months and coming in above expectations.
Despite the increase in new filings, continued claims declined to around 1.79 million, the lowest level in nearly two years, suggesting that while layoffs ticked up, unemployed workers were still finding jobs relatively quickly.
Overall, the data pointed to a labour market that remains resilient but showing signs of gradual cooling, with some near-term volatility in layoffs.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims would likely support equities by reinforcing confidence in labour-market resilience and consumer spending.
Higher-than-expected claims, especially if continued claims begin to rise, could weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors.
US Dollar
A strong labour-market signal (lower claims) typically supports the US dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A weaker reading (higher claims) may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Lower claims can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Higher claims generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm claims report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A softer report, particularly if continued claims start trending higher, strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack builds.
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing & Services PMI April Prelim
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys provide an early monthly snapshot of US private-sector activity. The Manufacturing PMI tracks output, new orders, employment, inventories, and supply-chain conditions, while the Services PMI measures business activity, demand, employment, and pricing trends across the services economy. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while below 50 signal contraction, making these reports some of the earliest indicators of monthly growth and inflation momentum.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (March Final), the Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 from 51.6 in February, signalling a moderate pace of expansion and an eighth straight month above the 50 threshold. Output and demand improved, but firms remained cautious on hiring and confidence softened amid worries about higher energy prices and tariffs.
The Services PMI fell to 49.8 from 51.7 in February, marking the first contraction in activity since January 2023. Business activity weakened, new work growth slowed to its weakest pace in nearly two years, employment slipped, and both input costs and selling prices accelerated as higher energy prices and broader uncertainty weighed on the sector. Overall, the March data pointed to a two-speed economy, with manufacturing holding up while services lost momentum sharply.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If both PMIs surprise to the upside, equities, particularly cyclicals, industrials, and consumer-facing sectors, may benefit as stronger activity supports earnings expectations. A weaker-than-expected set of readings, especially if services remains below 50, could weigh on stocks by reinforcing concerns that broader economic momentum is slowing.
US Dollar
Stronger PMI data would typically support the dollar, reinforcing confidence in US growth and reducing expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing. Softer readings may pressure the dollar, as markets lean toward a more dovish policy outlook if activity continues to cool.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in the PMIs could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and ongoing price-pressure concerns. Weaker readings would likely pull yields lower, as investors price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A resilient set of April PMIs, particularly if manufacturing stays firm and services rebounds, would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates quickly. Another soft services reading, especially if paired with weaker employment and still-elevated prices, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, though sticky cost pressures could complicate that shift.
Friday 24th April
10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment & Inflation Expectations Survey April Final
The University of Michigan Sentiment Survey measures US consumer attitudes toward personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions. It also includes 1-year and long-run inflation expectations, making it a closely watched release for both growth and inflation signals. Because shifts in confidence can affect household spending, and shifts in inflation expectations can influence Federal Reserve thinking, the survey is an important market-moving soft-data release.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (April Preliminary), consumer sentiment fell sharply to 47.6 from 53.3 in March, signalling a meaningful deterioration in household confidence. The drop was broad-based, with current conditions at 50.1 and expectations at 46.1, showing that consumers became more pessimistic about both the present backdrop and the outlook ahead.
Inflation expectations also moved higher. 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8% from 3.8%, while long-run inflation expectations increased to 3.4% from 3.2%. Overall, the preliminary reading pointed to a consumer backdrop that was weaker on confidence and more worried about inflation, which is a difficult mix for markets and policymakers.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the final reading is revised higher, or if inflation expectations are revised lower, equities may respond positively, particularly consumer-facing and rate-sensitive sectors.
A weaker final sentiment reading or firmer inflation expectations could weigh on stocks by raising concerns about softer demand and a more difficult inflation backdrop.
US Dollar
A stronger sentiment reading would likely support the dollar, especially if it reinforces confidence in US economic resilience.
If sentiment disappoints or inflation expectations remain uncomfortably high, the dollar reaction could be mixed, though weak confidence would usually lean negative for the currency.
US Government Bond Yields
If sentiment improves and inflation expectations ease, yields may be more stable or drift lower as growth concerns remain contained.
If inflation expectations stay elevated or move higher again, yields may rise, particularly at the front end, as markets price a more cautious Fed.
Federal Reserve Policy
The inflation expectations components will be especially important. If 1-year and long-run expectations remain elevated, that would support a more cautious Fed stance, even if confidence stays weak.
If the final survey shows softer inflation expectations and only modest consumer weakness, it would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path over time.
