Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 27th April – 1st May (US)

Monday 27th April
No noteworthy economic indicators

Tuesday 28th April
10:00 ET
US CB Consumer Confidence for April
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) measures US households’ perceptions of current economic conditions and expectations for the next six months. The survey is split into the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index, with the latter often viewed as a leading indicator of economic momentum. As consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP, this release is closely watched for signals on demand and growth.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (March), consumer confidence rose slightly to 91.8 from 91.0, indicating a modest improvement in sentiment.
However, beneath the headline, the details were more mixed. While assessments of current conditions improved, the Expectations Index remained weaker, reflecting ongoing caution about future income, job prospects, and broader economic conditions. Rising energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty also weighed on sentiment.
Overall, the report pointed to a consumer that was holding up in the present but increasingly cautious about the outlook.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected April reading, particularly if expectations improve, could support equities, especially consumer discretionary and retail sectors, as confidence underpins spending.
A weaker-than-expected print may weigh on stocks, signaling softer household demand and potential earnings headwinds.
US Dollar
Improving confidence typically supports the dollar, as it reinforces growth resilience and reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A disappointing reading may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger confidence can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker confidence generally leads to lower yields, as investors price in slower consumption and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Improved consumer confidence would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy quickly, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A meaningful deterioration in sentiment, especially expectations, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path if it signals softer demand ahead.

Wednesday 29th April
08:30 ET
US Durable Goods March Prelim
The Durable Goods Orders report, published monthly by the US Census Bureau, measures new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for goods expected to last three years or more, such as machinery, vehicles, and aircraft. It is a key indicator of business investment and manufacturing demand, with core measures, particularly orders excluding transportation and non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft, closely watched for underlying momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (February), durable goods orders fell 1.4% month-over-month to $315.5 billion, marking the fourth decline in five months. The drop was driven mainly by transportation equipment, which fell 5.4%, while orders excluding transportation rose 0.8%, suggesting underlying demand held up better than the headline implied. Overall, the report pointed to soft headline demand but more resilient core activity, with business investment trends still fairly cautious.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected March print, especially in core and capital goods orders, could lift equities, particularly industrial and manufacturing-linked sectors, as it would suggest firmer investment demand.
A weaker reading may weigh on cyclicals, reinforcing concerns about slowing capital expenditure.
US Dollar
Upside surprises in durable goods, particularly outside transportation, tend to support the dollar by reinforcing confidence in US growth.
A softer report may pressure the dollar, as weaker investment demand strengthens expectations for a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger orders can push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker readings generally lead to lower yields, as markets price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Firm durable goods and capital goods orders would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak report, particularly in core capital goods, strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path, as slowing investment signals cooling economic momentum.

09:45 ET
BoC Rate Decision & Rate Statement
The Bank of Canada interest rate decision sets the target for the overnight rate, which influences borrowing costs across the Canadian economy, including mortgages, consumer loans, business credit, and broader financial conditions. The accompanying rate statement explains how policymakers view inflation, growth, labour-market conditions, and risks to the outlook, making it key for expectations around future Bank of Canada policy.

Summary of Last Report
At the previous meeting in March, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The statement highlighted that inflation remained close to target but uncertainty had increased, particularly due to volatility in global energy prices and financial markets.
Overall, the BoC signalled a cautious and data-dependent stance, balancing softer domestic momentum against renewed upside risks to inflation from energy prices and global uncertainty.

What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
A more dovish BoC statement — especially one highlighting weaker growth or easing underlying inflation — could support Canadian equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate, financials, and consumer discretionary.
A more hawkish tone, focused on energy-driven inflation risks or financial-market volatility, could weigh on stocks.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
A hawkish hold or guidance suggesting rates may stay restrictive for longer would likely support the CAD.
A dovish statement or clearer openness to future cuts may pressure the CAD, as markets price in a lower rate path.
Canadian Government Bond Yields
If the BoC stresses inflation risks, yields may rise, especially at the front end.
If the statement leans dovish and focuses on slowing growth, yields may fall as markets price in a greater chance of future easing.
Bank of Canada Policy Outlook
The key focus will be whether the BoC treats recent energy-driven inflation pressure as temporary, or as a risk that could delay easing. A cautious hold would reinforce a wait-and-see stance, while softer language on inflation and growth would strengthen the case for a more accommodative path later in the year.

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report, published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), measures the change in US commercial crude oil stockpiles, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It reflects short-term shifts in supply, demand, imports, exports, and refinery activity, and is one of the most closely watched indicators for oil markets. Larger-than-expected builds are typically bearish for crude prices, while larger-than-expected draws are bullish.

What to Expect
Energy Stocks
A larger-than-expected draw would likely support energy equities, particularly exploration and production companies, as firmer crude prices improve revenue and cash-flow expectations.
A surprise build could pressure energy stocks, especially those most sensitive to short-term oil-price movements.
Oil Prices
A bullish inventory draw typically pushes oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of tighter supply or stronger demand.
A bearish build generally pressures oil prices lower, signaling excess supply or softer demand conditions.
Broader Implications
The report is a key signal for the balance between supply and demand and can influence inflation expectations through energy prices. Sustained draws point to tightening conditions and potential upside inflation pressure, while repeated builds suggest a more disinflationary backdrop.

14:00 ET
US Interest Rate Decision & Rate Statement
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision sets the target range for the federal funds rate, which influences borrowing costs across the US economy, from mortgages and business loans to consumer credit and broader financial conditions. The accompanying rate statement outlines how policymakers view inflation, labour-market conditions, growth, and risks to the outlook, making it one of the most important guides to the future path of monetary policy.

Summary of Last Report
At the previous meeting in March, the Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. In the statement, the Committee said economic activity had continued to expand at a solid pace, the unemployment rate had stabilized at a low level, and labor-market conditions remained solid, while inflation remained somewhat elevated. The Fed also noted that uncertainty around the economic outlook remained elevated and said it would carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks before making any further adjustments. Overall, the message was steady policy, cautious language, and continued data dependence.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the Fed delivers a more dovish statement, for example by sounding more confident on inflation or more concerned about growth risks, equities could react positively, particularly rate-sensitive sectors like technology and consumer discretionary.
A more hawkish tone, emphasizing sticky inflation or less urgency to ease, could weigh on stocks by tightening financial conditions.
US Dollar
A hawkish outcome would likely support the dollar, as markets would price in rates staying restrictive for longer.
A softer statement would tend to pressure the dollar, especially if investors interpret it as opening the door to earlier easing.
US Government Bond Yields
If the statement leans hawkish, yields may rise, particularly at the front end, as markets push back expectations for rate cuts.
If the Fed sounds more dovish or highlights downside risks to growth, yields may fall as investors price in a more accommodative path.
Federal Reserve Policy
The key focus will be whether the Fed keeps emphasizing patience and inflation risks, or begins to sound more open to easing later this year. A statement that still stresses uncertainty and caution would reinforce a patient Fed, while softer language on inflation or growth would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path over time.

Thursday 30th April
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index for March
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, published monthly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures changes in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. It is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, as it captures a broader range of spending and adjusts for changes in consumer behavior. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is particularly important for assessing underlying inflation trends and guiding policy decisions.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (February), headline PCE rose 2.8% year-over-year, holding steady from the prior month and indicating inflation progress had stalled somewhat.
Core PCE remained firm, reflecting persistent price pressures in services, even as goods inflation stayed more subdued. Overall, the data suggested that while inflation had cooled from prior highs, progress toward the Fed’s 2% target remained gradual and uneven.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A cooler-than-expected March PCE print, particularly in core, could support equities, especially rate-sensitive sectors like tech, as it strengthens expectations for rate cuts.
A hotter-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks, reinforcing concerns that inflation remains sticky and delaying easing.
US Dollar
Stronger inflation data typically supports the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A softer PCE print may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher-than-expected PCE inflation would likely push yields higher, reflecting delayed rate-cut expectations.
Lower inflation readings generally lead to lower yields, as markets price in easing and reduced inflation pressure.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm core PCE reading would reinforce a higher-for-longer stance, particularly with inflation still projected above target this year.
A softer inflation profile would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, especially if it confirms broader disinflation trends.

08:30 ET
US GDP Q1 Advance
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), measures the total value of goods and services produced in the US economy. The quarter-on-quarter (annualised) GDP figure is the broadest indicator of economic growth. The advance estimate is the first look at quarterly activity and tends to have the largest market impact, as it is based on incomplete data and often subject to revisions. The Q1 release is scheduled for April 30, 2026.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (Q4 Final), US GDP growth was revised down to around 0.5% annualised, marking a sharp slowdown from the 4.4% pace in Q3.
The slowdown was driven by weaker consumer spending, government outlays, and exports, although investment provided some offset. Overall, the data pointed to an economy that lost momentum into year-end, even if underlying demand remained positive.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If Q1 GDP rebounds meaningfully, equities, particularly cyclicals, may benefit as stronger growth supports earnings expectations.
A weaker-than-expected print could weigh on stocks, reinforcing concerns that economic momentum is slowing more sharply.
US Dollar
Stronger growth would likely support the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A soft GDP reading may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
An upside surprise in GDP could push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and potentially more persistent inflation.
A downside surprise would likely lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Policy
A solid Q1 growth print would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy quickly, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A weak reading, especially if driven by consumption, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, signaling that economic momentum is fading.

08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing a timely gauge of layoff activity. Continued Jobless Claims track the number of people who remain on unemployment benefits after their initial claim, offering insight into unemployment duration and broader labour-market slack. Together, these weekly releases are closely monitored for early signals of changes in employment momentum.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims would likely support equities by reinforcing confidence in labour-market resilience and consumer spending.
Higher-than-expected claims, particularly if continued claims keep rising, could weigh on stocks, especially cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors.
US Dollar
A strong labour-market signal (lower claims) typically supports the US dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A weaker reading (higher claims) may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Lower claims can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Higher claims generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm claims report would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a patient or higher-for-longer stance.
A softer report, particularly if continued claims trend higher, strengthens the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack gradually builds.

Friday 1st May
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI April Final
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI surveys purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector on output, new orders, employment, inventories, and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. The final release incorporates additional survey responses beyond the preliminary estimate, providing a more complete and reliable view of manufacturing-sector momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (March Final), the Manufacturing PMI was revised to 52.3 from 52.4 prelim, up from 51.6 in February, signaling a moderate expansion in factory activity.
The improvement was driven by stronger output and new orders, pointing to firmer domestic demand. However, the underlying details were more mixed:
Employment remained weak, with hiring slowing
Input costs rose sharply, reflecting higher energy prices and supply disruptions
Business confidence softened, with concerns around tariffs and global demand
Overall, the data showed a manufacturing sector that was expanding but facing rising cost pressures and external risks.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the final April PMI is revised higher, equities, particularly industrial and manufacturing-linked sectors, may benefit as it reinforces resilient activity.
A downward revision could weigh on cyclicals, especially if it signals that growth momentum is slowing.
US Dollar
An upward revision typically supports the dollar, as stronger manufacturing activity reinforces confidence in US growth.
A weaker revision may pressure the dollar, as markets reassess economic momentum and lean toward a more dovish outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger final PMI readings can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and persistent inflation risks.
Weaker revisions generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm final PMI, particularly if price pressures remain elevated, would support a higher-for-longer stance.
A weaker reading, especially if accompanied by softer demand and employment, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path.

10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for April
The ISM Manufacturing PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management, surveys purchasing managers across the US manufacturing sector on new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. It is one of the most widely followed indicators of industrial activity and broader economic momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (March), the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7, up from 52.4 in February, marking a third consecutive month of expansion.
The details showed a mixed but still positive backdrop:
New orders remained in expansion, though growth slowed
Production improved, supporting overall activity
Employment stayed in contraction, highlighting cautious hiring
Prices surged sharply, with the index jumping to its highest level since 2022, pointing to rising cost pressures
Overall, the report signaled a manufacturing sector that is expanding modestly but facing rising inflation pressures and uneven demand.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the April PMI holds firm or surprises higher, equities, particularly industrial and materials sectors, may benefit as manufacturing momentum remains intact.
A weaker-than-expected reading, especially a move back toward 50, could weigh on cyclicals and raise concerns about slowing growth.
US Dollar
A stronger PMI reading typically supports the dollar, reinforcing confidence in US economic resilience and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A softer print may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises can push yields higher, reflecting stronger growth and persistent inflation risks, especially if the prices component remains elevated.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in weaker activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm PMI, particularly with elevated prices, would support a higher-for-longer stance.
A weaker reading, especially if driven by falling new orders or continued weakness in employment, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path.