US NFP Prep [Friday 8th May]

On Friday, the 8th of May, at 08:30 ET, the BLS releases the US Employment Situation Report for April, including Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Earnings.
Here are some views on what to expect.

Overview
Forecasts subject to change
US Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast 65K, Previous 178K | Range: 133K / -15K
US Unemployment Rate Forecast 4.3%, Previous 4.3% | Range: 4.5% / 4.2%
US Average Hourly Earnings YoY Forecast 3.8%, Previous 3.5% | Range: 3.9% / 3.7%
US Private Payrolls Forecast 75K, Previous 186K | Range: 135K / -5K

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected report, solid payroll growth and stable wages, could support equities by reinforcing confidence in economic resilience.
A weaker print may weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical sectors, as it signals slowing demand and softer income growth.
US Dollar
A robust jobs report typically supports the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A softer report may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in payrolls or wages could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth and inflation expectations.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm labour report would support a patient or higher-for-longer stance, especially if wage growth remains sticky.
A weaker report, particularly rising unemployment or softer earnings, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack builds.

Commentary
ANZ
The April nonfarm payroll (NFP) report will indicate how the labour market is coping with heightened uncertainty. Consensus estimates suggest payrolls rose 62k, down from the 178k addition in March.
This is consistent with the weekly jobless claims data, which signalled a slight deterioration in net hiring. The unemployment rate is expected to have remained steady at 4.3%.
We expect spare labour market capacity to continue to exert downward pressure on wage growth.

Goldman Sachs
Nonfarm payrolls are estimated to have risen by 75k in April. The labour picture looks mixed, with solid big-data job indicators and still-low layoff measures on the positive side, but some drag from government employment, where a 10k drop in federal payrolls is expected to be only partly offset by a 5k increase in state and local jobs.

The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3% on a rounded basis, though only a small move would be needed for it to print at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are estimated to rise 0.3% month-on-month, with calendar effects seen as broadly neutral.

Morgan Stanely
Payrolls are expected to rise by around 70k in April, with private payrolls up 80k, broadly in line with the first-quarter pace. Falling jobless claims point to slower layoffs and a slightly faster pace of re-employment at the start of the month, which suggests labour market deterioration remains gradual rather than abrupt. That pace of job growth is seen as roughly consistent with a stable unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, though it remains close to rounding down to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, while the annual pace is expected to jump temporarily to 3.8% from 3.5% in March, though that would still be below the 3.9% pace seen at the end of 2025.

Previous Release
The March employment report delivered a much stronger headline payrolls print than expected, helping the dollar strengthen after the release, although the broader market reaction was less straightforward, with S&P 500 futures whipsawing as traders digested the mix of stronger hiring but softer wage growth.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 178k, comfortably above the 65k forecast, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3% from 4.4%, against expectations for it to remain at 4.4%. However, the prior payroll figure was revised lower, from -92k to -133k, softening some of the strength in the latest headline number.

The key dovish element came from wages, with average hourly earnings slowing to 3.5% year-on-year, below the 3.7% forecast and down from 3.8% previously. Overall, the report pointed to a labour market that was stronger than feared on hiring, but with easing wage pressure, leaving markets with a slightly messy read-through: supportive for the dollar on the headline beat, but not an outright hawkish report given the softer earnings data and negative revision to the prior month.