Morning Juice – US Session Prep (22nd May)

Sentiment
The dollar rose versus the majority of its Group of 10 peers as investors awaited more developments in the US-Iran conflict and a speech on the economy by Fed’s Waller. US Treasuries edged higher, with yields about 1 bp lower across maturities; the 10-year yield was around 4.55%, 4 bps lower than last Friday’s close. USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 159.12 after data showed core consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four years. Brent rebounded to above $105 a barrel, but remained lower for the week. The S&P 500 is on track for its longest weekly win streak since 2023. An attack on a nuclear power station in the United Arab Emirates has raised concerns about the breadth of Iran’s retribution for a possible US restart of strikes, with experts emphasizing the greater role Tehran-backed militias in Iraq play in the conflict.
Trump announced that he will send an additional 5,000 troops to Poland, reversing a decision to stop an Army deployment to the country amid a spat with other NATO states over what he regarded as their refusal to assist in the Iran war.

Docket
08:30 ET
Canadian Retail Sales for March
MoM – Forecast: 0.6%  Prior: 0.7% | Range: 1.4% / 0.5%
Core MoM – Forecast: 0.9% | Prior: 0.5% | Range: 1.6% / 0.6^

10:00 ET
University of Michigan Survey May Final
Sentiment: Forecast: 48.2 | Preior: 48.2 | Range: 49.5 / 47
1-Year Inflation – Forecast: 4.6% | Prior: 4.5% | Range: 4.5% / 4.7%
5-Year Inflation – Forecast: 3.4% | Prior: 3.4% | Range: 3.4% / 3.4%

Speakers
10:00 ET
Fed’s Waller gives guest lecture on the economic outlook at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
Text: Yes. Q&A: Yes, moderator.

15:00 ET
Trump Speaks

Good luck & have a good weekend!