Morning Juice – US Session Prep (28th May)

Sentiment
The dollar was on track for a third straight day of gains as new attacks in the Middle East raised worries about whether the war will finish soon. Data on the price index for personal consumption expenditures, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released later Thursday, and Federal Reserve officials Alberto Musalem and Thomas Barkin will speak. Banks may be offering leverage to hedge funds trading gilts at advantageous terms due to competitive pressures, according to a senior Bank of England official, indicating that authorities want to tighten market regulations. The 10-year US yield rises lbp to 4.49%, from 4.53% session high; European government bonds also slide down, headed by the front-end. GBP/USD loses 0.2% to 1.3405, down for a third day. Oil surged after fresh airstrikes in the Persian Gulf; Brent traded at $96 per barrel, following a more than 5% slump on Wednesday.

Docket
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index for April
YoY – Forecast: 3.8% | Prior: 3.5% | Range: 4% / 3.7%
MoM – Forecast: 0.5% | Prior: 0.7% | Range: 0.6% / 0.4%
Core YoY – Forecast: 3.3% | Prior: 3.2% | Range: 3.4% / 3.3%
Core MoM – Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.3% | Range: 0.4% / 0.2%
Consumer Spending MoM – Forecast: 0.5% | Prior: 0.9% | Range: 0.7% / 0.3%

08:30 ET
US GDP Q1 Second Estimate
QoQ – Forecast: 2% | Prior: 2% | Range: 2.3% / 1.7%
GDP Price Index – Forecast: 3.6% | Prior: 3.6% | Range: 3.9% / 3.5%

08:30 ET
US Durable Goods April Prelim
Forecast: 3.9% | Prior: 0.8% | Range: 9.8% / 0.5%

08:30 ET
US Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial Claims – Forecast: 212k | Prior: 209k | Range: 215k / 200k
Continued Claims – Forecast: 1.781M | Prior: 1.782M | Range: 1.8M / 1.733M

12:00 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: -3.987M | Prior: -7.863M | Range: -3M / -5.127M

13:00 ET
US sells $44 bln 7-Year Notes
Prior High Yield: 4.175%
Prior Bid-to-cover: 2.51

Speakers
08:55 ET
Fed’s Williams [FOMC Voting Member] speaks at Reykjavik Economic Conference.
Text: Yes. Moderated Q&A: Yes.

10:00 ET
Trump participates in a Pre-Tape Interview

10:15 ET
Fed’s Musalem [FOMC Non-Voting Member] speaks at the Reykjavik Economic Conference.

11:40 ET
BoE’s Breeden speaks in a fireside chat at the 58th International Capital Market Association annual general meeting and conference.

11:45 ET
ECB’s Schnabel gives A public lecture as part of Selten Salon organized by ECONtribute in Cologne, Germany.
No text will be made available.

13:10 ET
Fed’s Musalem [FOMC Non-Voting Member] speaks on BTV

14:00 ET
US Treasury Sec. Bessent Press Conference

15:00 ET
Fed’s Barkin [FOMC Non-Voting Member] will appear at a Johns Hopkins Carey Business School event in Washington. Barkin will take part in a fireside chat.
Text: No. Q&A: Yes, moderator.

Earnings
16:15 ET
Costco Q3 2026 Earnings
Est. EPS: $4.91
Est. Rev: $69.56B

Good luck!