Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 1st – 5th June (US)
Monday 1st June
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI May Final
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI surveys purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector on output, new orders, employment, inventories, supplier delivery times, and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. The final release incorporates additional survey responses beyond the preliminary estimate, providing a more complete view of manufacturing momentum.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (May Preliminary), the Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 from 54.5 in April, beating expectations and marking the strongest expansion since May 2022. Output grew at the fastest pace in over four years, while job creation also improved.
The report pointed to stronger factory momentum, though cost pressures remained a concern as higher energy prices and supply-chain risks continued to affect manufacturers. Overall, the data suggested manufacturing activity was accelerating, but with inflation risks still present.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the final PMI is revised higher, industrials and manufacturing-linked stocks may benefit as stronger activity supports earnings expectations.
A downward revision could weigh on cyclicals if it suggests the preliminary strength was overstated.
US Dollar
A stronger final reading would likely support the dollar by reinforcing confidence in US growth.
A weaker revision may pressure the dollar as markets reassess economic momentum.
US Government Bond Yields
An upward revision could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth and persistent cost pressures.
A weaker final reading would likely pull yields lower as markets price in softer activity.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm final PMI, especially with elevated price pressures, would support a higher-for-longer Fed stance.
A weaker reading would strengthen the case for a more accommodative path if it points to softer demand or easing inflation pressure.
10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for May
The ISM Manufacturing PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management, surveys purchasing managers across the US manufacturing sector on new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. It is one of the most closely watched indicators of industrial activity and broader economic momentum.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (April), the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.8, down from 52.7 in March, but still marking a fourth consecutive month of expansion.
The underlying details were mixed:
New orders slowed, suggesting softer demand momentum
Production remained in expansion, though at a slower pace
Employment stayed weak, reflecting cautious hiring trends
Prices remained elevated, highlighting ongoing cost pressures tied to energy and supply-chain concerns
Overall, the report pointed to a manufacturing sector that was still expanding, but losing some momentum while inflation pressures remained firm.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the May PMI remains firm or moves higher, equities, particularly industrial and materials sectors, may benefit as manufacturing resilience supports growth expectations.
A weaker-than-expected reading, especially if it moves closer to 50, could weigh on cyclicals and reinforce concerns about slowing momentum.
US Dollar
A stronger PMI reading would likely support the dollar, reinforcing confidence in US economic resilience and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A softer print may pressure the dollar as markets lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises, particularly if the prices component remains elevated, could push yields higher as markets price stronger growth and persistent inflation risks.
Weaker readings would likely lead to lower yields as investors price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm PMI, especially with elevated prices, would support a higher-for-longer Fed stance.
A weaker reading, particularly if new orders and employment soften further, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path later in the year.
Tuesday 2nd June
10:00 ET
US JOLTS Job Openings for April
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures the number of unfilled job openings at the end of the month, along with hiring, quits, and separations. Job openings are a key gauge of labour demand, helping assess the balance between supply and demand in the labour market and the potential for wage and inflation pressures.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (March), job openings declined to around 6.8 million from 6.9 million in February, continuing the broader cooling trend in labour demand.
The report also showed:
Hiring remained subdued, reflecting cautious business sentiment
Quits stayed relatively low, suggesting workers remain less confident about switching jobs
The labour market continued to exhibit a “low hire, low fire” dynamic, with layoffs contained but demand for workers easing
Overall, the data pointed to a labour market that is gradually cooling rather than deteriorating sharply, with labour demand continuing to normalize from post-pandemic highs.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If job openings come in stronger than expected, equities may benefit as resilient labour demand supports consumer spending and earnings expectations.
A weaker-than-expected reading could weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors, as it signals softer hiring momentum.
US Dollar
A stronger JOLTS reading would likely support the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A softer report may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in job openings may push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth and inflation expectations.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm job openings report would support a patient or higher-for-longer Fed stance, particularly if labour demand remains elevated.
Continued declines in openings would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, especially if accompanied by softer wage growth and easing inflation pressures.
Wednesday 3rd June
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for May
The ADP Employment Change report measures the monthly change in US private-sector payrolls using anonymized payroll data from ADP’s client base. While it does not always align perfectly with official Nonfarm Payrolls, it is closely watched as an early signal of labour-market momentum ahead of the government jobs report.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (April), US private employment rose by around 96,000, improving from March but still pointing to a labour market that is cooling compared to the stronger pace seen earlier in the cycle.
Job gains were concentrated in service-related industries, while manufacturing and interest rate sensitive sectors remained softer. Smaller businesses continued to face a more challenging hiring backdrop, reflecting tighter financial conditions and slower economic momentum.
Overall, the report suggested the labour market remained stable but no longer overheated, with hiring continuing at a moderate pace rather than accelerating.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected May print could support equities by reinforcing confidence in labour-market resilience and consumer spending.
A weaker reading may weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors, as it signals softer hiring momentum.
US Dollar
A strong ADP result would likely support the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A soft report may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in employment growth could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and potentially stickier inflation pressures.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm ADP report would support a patient or higher-for-longer Fed stance, especially if labour-market resilience continues.
A weaker reading would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if it aligns with softer data across the broader labour market.
09:45 ET
US S&P Services & Composite PMI May Final
The S&P Global US Services PMI surveys purchasing managers across the services sector on business activity, new orders, employment, and prices. The Composite PMI combines both the manufacturing and services sectors to provide a broader view of overall private-sector economic activity. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while below 50 signal contraction. The final release incorporates additional survey responses beyond the preliminary estimate, offering a more complete assessment of economic momentum.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (May Preliminary), the Services PMI rose to 54.8 from 52.5 in April, signaling a stronger pace of expansion across the services sector. Business activity and new orders improved, supported by resilient consumer demand and stronger domestic activity. However, firms also reported rising input costs, particularly tied to energy and wage pressures.
The Composite PMI climbed to 55.1 from 53.0, marking the strongest pace of overall private-sector expansion in over two years. Manufacturing strength combined with resilient services activity pointed to an economy that remained firm despite tighter financial conditions and elevated inflation concerns.
Overall, the preliminary data suggested that US private-sector activity reaccelerated in May, though cost pressures remained an important theme beneath the surface.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the final PMIs are revised higher, equities may benefit as stronger private-sector activity supports earnings expectations and reduces recession concerns.
A downward revision could weigh on stocks, particularly if services momentum softens materially.
US Dollar
A stronger final reading would likely support the dollar by reinforcing confidence in US economic resilience and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A weaker revision may pressure the dollar as markets lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside revisions, particularly if price pressures remain elevated, could push yields higher as markets price firmer growth and stickier inflation.
Weaker readings would likely pull yields lower as investors price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm final Services and Composite PMI, especially with elevated price components, would support a higher-for-longer Fed stance.
If activity is revised lower and price pressures ease, it would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path later in the year.
10:00 ET
US ISM Services PMI for May
The ISM Services PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management, surveys purchasing managers across the US services sector on business activity, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. As services account for the majority of US economic activity, this is one of the most important indicators of growth momentum and inflation pressures.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (April), the ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4 from 54.0 in March, beating expectations and signaling a stronger pace of expansion across the services sector.
The details showed a broadly resilient backdrop:
Business activity strengthened sharply, pointing to firm demand
New orders improved, supporting momentum heading into Q2
Employment remained soft, suggesting companies were still cautious on hiring
Prices stayed elevated, reflecting continued inflation pressure tied to wages and energy costs
Overall, the report pointed to a services sector that remained resilient and expanding, though inflation pressures and softer hiring trends continued beneath the surface.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the May PMI remains firm or moves higher, equities, particularly consumer-facing and service-oriented sectors, may benefit as stronger activity supports earnings expectations.
A weaker-than-expected reading, especially if business activity and new orders soften, could weigh on stocks and reinforce concerns about slowing momentum.
US Dollar
A strong PMI print would likely support the dollar, reinforcing confidence in US economic resilience and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A softer print may pressure the dollar as markets lean toward a more dovish outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises, particularly if the prices component remains elevated, could push yields higher as markets price firmer growth and persistent inflation risks.
Weaker readings would likely lead to lower yields as investors price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm services PMI, especially with elevated price pressures, would support a higher-for-longer Fed stance.
If activity slows meaningfully and employment remains weak, it would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, though sticky inflation could complicate that shift.
Thursday 4th June
No noteworthy economic indicators
Friday 5th June
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for May
The US Employment Situation report, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), provides the most comprehensive snapshot of labour-market conditions. Key components include Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), measuring net job creation; the Unemployment Rate, reflecting labour-market slack; and Average Hourly Earnings, which gauge wage growth and inflation pressure. It is one of the most market-moving economic releases each month.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (April), nonfarm payrolls increased by around 165,000, pointing to continued but moderating job growth. Hiring remained concentrated in healthcare, government, and services, while manufacturing and interest rate sensitive sectors stayed softer.
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, suggesting labour-market conditions remained relatively stable despite slower hiring momentum.
Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, indicating wage growth continued to cool gradually but remained above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target.
Overall, the report pointed to a labour market that remained resilient but continued to normalize, with softer hiring and gradually easing wage pressures.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected report, with solid payroll growth and firm wages, could support equities by reinforcing confidence in economic resilience and consumer spending.
A weaker print may weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical sectors, as it signals slowing demand and softer labour-market momentum.
US Dollar
A robust jobs report would likely support the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A softer report may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in payrolls or wages could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth and inflation expectations.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm labour report would support a patient or higher-for-longer Fed stance, particularly if wage growth remains sticky.
A weaker report, especially if unemployment rises or earnings soften further, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market slack builds.
