Morning Juice – Europe Session Prep

Good Morning Traders.
It is Friday, the 12th of June. Here is what to look out for today.

Sentiment

Global risk sentiment improved sharply after Trump said planned attacks on Iran had been called off and that a deal was close. Trump described the proposed agreement as a “very strong memorandum of understanding” that would reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and include commitments from Tehran not to pursue a nuclear weapon. The comments reinforced expectations that tensions in the Middle East may be moving toward a diplomatic resolution.

Oil extended its decline as geopolitical risk premiums continued to unwind. Brent fell further after Trump said a peace agreement could be signed as soon as this weekend following recent US military strikes that had previously raised doubts about negotiations.

Bond markets remained supported as easing concerns over energy-driven inflation reduced pressure on yields. Investors also continued to reassess the outlook for global central banks amid signs that conflict-related risks may be fading.

In the UK, political uncertainty increased after Defence Secretary Healey resigned following a prolonged dispute with the Treasury over spending. The departure represents a significant challenge for Starmer’s government at a time when political rivals are positioning themselves to challenge his leadership.

Trade tensions also remained in focus. Canada’s Trade Minister LeBlanc said he was not surprised by the Trump administration’s decision not to renew the North American trade agreement next month, though he expects separate agreements will ultimately resolve outstanding disputes.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s central bank signaled a more hawkish stance. Governor Rhee said interest rates should be raised without delay, delivering the strongest indication yet that policymakers are preparing to tighten policy as inflation and financial stability concerns continue to build.

Docket
02:00 ET
UK Manufacturing Production MoM
Median Forecast: -0.2% | Prior: 1.2% | Range: 0.2% / -0.8%
UK GDP Estimate MoM
Median Forecast: -0.1%| Prior: 0.3%
UK GDP Estimate YoY
Prior: 1.2%
UK GDP Estimate 3M/3M
Median Forecast:0.7%| Prior: 0.6%
German HICP Final YoY
Median Forecast: 2.7%| Prior: 2.7%