Morning Juice – US Session Prep (18th June)

Sentiment
US equity futures moved higher as oil prices fell, with early signs that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz may be starting to normalise after Trump signed a preliminary agreement aimed at ending the Middle East conflict. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures both rose, with tech leading the move and Intel jumping after Trump said it had reached a chipmaking deal with Apple.
Brent fell to its lowest level since the conflict began as Saudi-controlled tankers resumed transmitting signals in the Gulf of Oman, reinforcing the view that the geopolitical premium in oil is continuing to unwind.

Even with oil easing, rates markets stayed firm. Front-end Treasury yields remained elevated as traders continued to price a September Fed hike, while the dollar extended its gains. In the UK, gilt yields also moved higher after the BoE held rates and repeated that it stands ready to act if inflation pressures persist.
The broader message is that lower oil is helping risk sentiment, but central banks are still focused on inflation, leaving markets caught between improving geopolitics and a still-hawkish policy backdrop.

Docket
08:30 ET
US Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial Claims – Forecast: 225k | Prior: 229k | Range: 230k / 206k
Continued Claims – Forecast: 1.79M | Prior: 1.795M | Range: 1.81M / 1.775M

13:00 ET
US sells $24 bln 5-Year TIPS
Prior High-Yield: 3.595%
Prior Bid-to-cover: 3.13

Speakers
08:15 ET
ECB’s Lane participated in ‘ Session on monetary policymaking under uncertainty1 at Deutsche Bank Forum in London. No text will be made available.

13:00 ET
ECB’s Escriva speaks on the economy and banking in Barcelona.

16:00 ET
Trump presents the Medal of Honour

Good luck!