Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 22nd – 26th June (US)

Monday 22nd June
No noteworthy economic indicators

Tuesday 23rd June
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing & Services June Prelim PMIs
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys provide an early monthly snapshot of US private-sector activity. The Manufacturing PMI tracks output, new orders, employment, inventories, and supply-chain conditions, while the Services PMI measures business activity, demand, employment, and pricing trends across the services economy. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while below 50 signal contraction, making these reports some of the earliest indicators of monthly growth and inflation momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (May Final), the Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 55.3, marking the strongest pace of expansion in three years. Output growth accelerated sharply, new orders remained firm, and production activity benefited from resilient domestic demand. However, firms continued to report elevated input costs and ongoing concerns around supply chains and energy prices.
The Services PMI was confirmed at 54.8, pointing to a healthy pace of expansion across the largest part of the economy. Business activity and new orders remained strong, though companies continued to cite rising labour and operating costs. The Composite PMI held at 55.1, indicating robust private-sector growth overall.
Taken together, the May data suggested the US economy remained resilient and expanding, though inflation pressures had yet to fully disappear.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If both PMIs remain firm or move higher, equities, particularly cyclicals, industrials, and consumer-facing sectors, may benefit as stronger activity supports earnings expectations.
A weaker set of readings, especially if services momentum cools, could weigh on stocks by reinforcing concerns about slowing growth.
US Dollar
Stronger PMI data would likely support the dollar, reinforcing confidence in US economic resilience and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
Weaker readings may pressure the dollar if markets interpret them as a sign that growth momentum is fading.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises, particularly if the price components remain elevated, could push yields higher as markets price stronger growth and persistent inflation risks.
Softer readings would likely pull yields lower as investors price in weaker activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A resilient set of June PMIs, especially if accompanied by elevated price pressures, would support a higher-for-longer Fed stance.
If activity slows meaningfully and employment components weaken, it would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if inflation pressures continue to ease.

Wednesday 24th June
No noteworthy economic indicators

Thursday 25th June
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index for May
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, published monthly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures changes in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. It is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge because it captures a broader range of spending than CPI and adjusts for changes in consumer behavior. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is particularly important for assessing underlying inflation trends.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (April), the PCE data reinforced the view that inflation was continuing to cool gradually following the energy-driven volatility seen earlier in the year.
Headline PCE increased at a moderate pace as energy inflation stabilized, while core PCE remained relatively contained, suggesting underlying inflation pressures continued to move in the right direction. Services inflation remained the primary contributor to overall price growth, though several core categories showed signs of moderation.
Overall, the report supported the narrative that inflation was still above the Fed’s target but continuing to trend lower, allowing policymakers to remain patient while monitoring incoming data.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A cooler-than-expected May PCE print, particularly in core inflation, could support equities by strengthening expectations for future Fed easing and improving the outlook for rate-sensitive sectors such as technology.
A hotter-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks if markets begin pushing back expectations for policy accommodation.
US Dollar
Stronger inflation data would likely support the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A softer PCE print may pressure the dollar as markets lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher-than-expected inflation would likely push yields higher, especially if core measures accelerate and suggest inflation progress is stalling.
Lower inflation readings would likely pull yields lower as investors price in greater odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
The key focus will be whether core services inflation continues to moderate and whether progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target remains intact.
A firm inflation report would support a higher-for-longer policy stance, while softer core inflation would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path later in the year.

08:30 ET
US GDP Q1 Final
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the total value of goods and services produced in the economy. The quarter-on-quarter annualised GDP figure is the broadest indicator of US economic growth. The final estimate incorporates the most complete set of source data available and represents the last major revision before annual benchmark updates.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (Q1 Second Estimate), GDP growth was revised slightly higher from the advance estimate, reflecting stronger consumer spending and business investment than initially reported.
Consumer spending remained the primary driver of growth, while business investment showed resilience despite elevated interest rates. However, trade continued to weigh on activity, and inventory accumulation was softer than in previous quarters.
Overall, the second estimate suggested the US economy was still expanding but at a slower pace than seen during the second half of last year, with domestic demand remaining relatively firm despite tighter financial conditions.

What to Expect
US Stocks
An upward revision to GDP could support equities by reinforcing confidence in economic resilience and corporate earnings prospects.
A downward revision may weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical sectors, if it suggests weaker consumer spending or business investment.
US Dollar
A stronger GDP revision would likely support the dollar, as it reinforces confidence in US economic growth and reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing.
A weaker revision may pressure the dollar if markets interpret it as evidence of slowing momentum.
US Government Bond Yields
An upward revision could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and potentially more persistent inflation pressures.
A downward revision would likely pull yields lower as investors price in softer economic activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A stronger final GDP estimate would support the Fed’s patient stance by indicating that economic activity remains resilient despite restrictive policy settings.
A weaker revision, particularly if driven by softer consumption, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path if broader growth risks continue to build.

08:30 ET
US Durable Goods May Prelim
The Durable Goods Orders report, published monthly by the US Census Bureau, measures new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for goods expected to last three years or more, such as machinery, vehicles, and aircraft. It is a key indicator of business investment and manufacturing demand, with core measures such as orders excluding transportation and non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft closely watched for underlying investment momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (April), durable goods orders rose modestly, supported by firmer demand for transportation equipment and select machinery categories. Excluding transportation, orders were more stable, suggesting underlying demand remained positive but not especially strong.
Core capital goods orders were mixed, pointing to cautious business investment as firms balanced resilient demand against elevated borrowing costs and uncertainty around the economic outlook.
Overall, the report suggested that manufacturing demand was holding up, but underlying capital spending remained uneven.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected May print, especially in core and capital goods orders, could support equities, particularly industrial and manufacturing-linked sectors, as it signals firmer investment demand.
A weaker reading may weigh on cyclicals by reinforcing concerns about slowing capital expenditure.
US Dollar
Upside surprises in durable goods, particularly outside transportation, would likely support the dollar by reinforcing confidence in US growth.
A softer report may pressure the dollar as weaker investment demand strengthens expectations for a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger orders can push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker readings generally lead to lower yields as markets price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Firm durable goods and capital goods orders would support a patient or higher-for-longer Fed stance by showing that business investment remains resilient.
A weak report, particularly in core capital goods, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path if it signals cooling investment momentum.