Morning Juice – US Session Prep (25th June)
Sentiment
A dollar index sank ahead of a series of significant US data releases, while Treasury rates edged higher. The yen remained close to its lowest level since 1986. Stocks rose around the world after Micron’s blowout prediction confirmed the bull argument for the artificial intelligence trade. Oil prices reverting to pre-war levels boosted sentiment even further.
Brent oil lost all of its wartime gains as flows through the Strait of Hormuz increased following progress on a US-Iran peace agreement.
Amazon increased its projected India investments by $13 billion, increasing the deployment of artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure in the world’s most populous country.
Trump and US Senate Republicans reached a fever pitch during a Wednesday lunch break, following a 24-hour exchange in which lawmakers chastised the president over the Iran war, and he abruptly canceled a signing ceremony for legislation that the GOP sees as critical to its midterm election efforts.
Docket
8:30 ET
US PCE Price Index for May
YoY – Forecast: 4.1% | Prior: 3.8% | Range: 4.3% / 4%
MoM – Forecast: 0.5% | Prior: 0.4% | Range: 0.7% / 0.2%
Core YoY – Forecast: 3.4% | Prior: 3.3% | Range: 3.5% / 3.2%
Core MoM – Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.2% | Range: 0.4% / 0.2%
US Consumer Spending for May
Forecast: 0.6% | Prior: 0.5% | Range: 1% / 0.4%
US Durable Goods for May
Forecast: -5% | Prior: 8% | Range: 4% / -9%
US GDP QoQ Final for Q1
Forecast: 1.6% | Prior: 1.6% | Range: 2.5% / 1.4%
Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial – Forecast: 225K | Prior: 226K | Range: 240K / 220K
Continued – Forecast: 1.802M | Prior: 1.81M | Range: 1.82M / 1.785M
13:00 ET
US 7-Year Note Auction
Prior High Yield – 4.29%
Prior Bid-to-Cover -2.52
Speakers & Events
15:40 ET
Fed’s Williams gives a speech at Crane Money Fund Symposium in New Jersey City
Text: Yes Q&A: No
18:30 ET
Fed’s Goolsbee, with a moderator, discusses the forces shaping monetary policy and what they mean for the American economy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Text: TBD Q&A: Yes with a moderator
Good Luck!
